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IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague

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EARTH ORIENTATION PARAMETERS PREDICTION COMPARISON CAMPAIGN (EOP PCC). REPORT. Harald Schuh 1. Maciej Kalarus 2. IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague. 1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology. 2 Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

EARTH ORIENTATION PARAMETERS

PREDICTION COMPARISON CAMPAIGN

(EOP PCC)

REPORT

Harald Schuh 1

Maciej Kalarus 2

IAU XXVIth General Assembly,Prague

1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology

2 Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences

slide2

MAIN IDEAS

  • to emphasize importance of EOP

prediction within the IERS

  • to compare the various methods, models,

techniques and strategies which can be

applied for EOP prediction with equal rules

  • to apply the same statistical method

for all results by a „referee”

  • to collect the predictions before any EOP

observations are taken

slide4

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

participant

company/organization

slide5

6

8

5

7

6

8

4

6

7

5

5

yp[mas]

3

6

xp[mas]

4

4

5

2

3

3

4

2

1

3

2

1

2

0

0

0

5

10

1

0

5

10

[days]

1

[days]

0

0

2

6

10

2

6

10

[days]

[days]

ID

SELECTED RESULTS

0101

S. Kumakshev

ultra short-term predictions of polar motion

0102

O. Akyilmaz

0201

H. Kutterer

R. Gross

0301

MPE - Mean Prediction Error

DMPE - Error bars of the MPE

0501

LEGEND

W. Kosek

0502

M. Kalarus

0601

0701

D. Gambis

0901

L. Zotov

0902

0903

(45 submissions were used)

MPE

DMPE

MPE

DMPE

slide6

2

1.5

2

0.6

UT1-UTC[ms]

0.5

1

1.5

0.4

MPE

0.3

0.7

0.5

1

0.6

0.2

0.5

0

0.1

0.5

0

5

10

[days]

0.4

LOD[ms/day]

0

2

6

10

0.3

[days]

0

0.2

2

6

10

[days]

0.1

0

0

5

10

[days]

ID

SELECTED RESULTS

0101

S. Kumakshev

ultra short-term predictions

of UT1-UTC and LOD

0102

O. Akyilmaz

0201

H. Kutterer

R. Gross

0301

0501

LEGEND

W. Kosek

0502

M. Kalarus

0601

0701

D. Gambis

0901

0902

L. Zotov

0903

(45 submissions were used)

MPE

DMPE

DMPE

slide7

150

150

100

100

yp[mas]

xp[mas]

50

50

0

0

0

100

200

300

0

100

200

300

[days]

[days]

ID

SELECTED RESULTS

0101

S. Kumakshev

medium-term predictions of polar motion

0102

O. Akyilmaz

0201

H. Kutterer

R. Gross

0301

ABS - Absolute prediction error

0501

LEGEND

W. Kosek

0502

M. Kalarus

0601

(310 days of the first predictions were used)

0701

D. Gambis

0901

ABS

ABS

0902

L. Zotov

0903

More results at www.cbk.waw.pl/EOP_PCC

slide8

CONCLUSIONS

  • EOP PCC is going smoothly

(46 ultra short-term, 11 short-term and 11 medium-term

predictions were received)

  • Error bars (DMPE) of the Mean Prediction Error (MPE)

are getting smaller but in most cases they still overlap

each other.

Therefore, the presented results give only a broad outline.

  • In order to compute more reliable statistics

and find the best prediction product we need

more datafor different epochs

  • Statistical analyses show that for different

prediction intervals different methods should be taken.

slide9

PROSPECTS

  • Rules will be slightly changed
  • IERS Working Group on Prediction
  • Joint paper presenting results
  • We are open for new participants
slide10

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Website:www.cbk.waw.pl/EOP_PCC

E-mail:[email protected]

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