Consuming statistical data. Badania Operacyjne. Statistical pitfalls.
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Assuming independenceof your action and the other passengers’ actions, the probability ofthere being two bombs conditional on your bringing one is equal to theprobability of one bomb conditional on your not bringing one.
The same withbetting on 1,2,3,4,5,6 in lotto state lottery.
Assumethat most of the top squash playersarePakistani.
Itdoes not meanthat most Pakistaniare top squash players.
Yetpeopleoften make thismistake.
[At a restaurant]
Comment on the following.
Eveniftheuse of mobile phonesincreasestheprobability of braintumorsfrom 0.0000302 to 0.0000303 withlargeenoughsample