Presentation Transcript

1. Silicon South WestTech TreNDS 2013

   Jamie Urquhart March 1st 2013 Pond Venture Partners
2. Geek Currently Venture Partner Pond Venture Partners Ltd - Venture capital Entrepreneur In Residence Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning, Judge Business School Fellow IET Previously Bath University B.Sc Physics and Physical Electronics. Plessey Research Limited, analog (RF) and digital CMOS, Bipolar and GaAs. Acorn Computers Limited, VLSI Design Manager of the VLSI Design Group. ARM Holdings plc Co-founder - November 1990 until November 2002. VP of Sales and Marketing, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Strategy Officer nCipher plc Non-exec Security through Strong-Cryptography Acquired by Thales Antenova Non-exec Aerials/RF Systems (private company) Splashpower VP Licensing/Non-exec Wireless charging (private sale) Imperas Non-exec EDA (management buy-out) Acco Interim CEO RF Picochip Non-exec Small Basestations, acquired by Mindspeed SSW Tech Trends 2013
3. Don’t do Predictions! Either: Wrong Obvious Everyone else can see them as well Market slugfest Valuable Become a Forecaster Start a business SSW Tech Trends 2013
4. Food for Thought What matters? Markets Growth Accessibility Intensity Conservatism Stage Problems – value of solving a problem Extrinsic Intrinsic SSW Tech Trends 2013
5. Markets Where is the growth? GDP growth rate 2012 Italy -2.3% UK -0.1% Germany +0.9% Japan +2.2% Korea (South) +2.7% India +5.4% China +7.8% Wikipedia – based upon CIA Factbook SSW Tech Trends 2013
6. Porter’s Market Forces Analysis A method to assess the competitive intensity of a market A high intensity requires a significant advantage to create a profitable company Assess markets against the Strategic directions of the company Markets already addressed Potential markets SSW Tech Trends 2013
7. Diffusion of innovations Diffusion of innovations is the social sciences theory for how and why new ideas spread through cultures. French sociologist Gabriel Tardeoriginally claimed that sociology was based on small psychological interactions among individuals, especially imitation and innovation. Diffusion of innovations theory was formalized by Everett Rogers in a 1962 book called Diffusion of Innovations.. Rogers showed these innovations would spread through society in an S curve. Characteristics of product adopters: 2.5% innovators - venturesome, educated, multiple info sources 13.5% early adopters - social leaders, popular, educated 34% early majority - deliberate, many informal social contacts 34% late majority - sceptical, traditional, lower socio-economic status 16% laggards - neighbours and friends are main info sources, fear of debt Other adopters of diffusion of innovations theory include Geoffrey Moore. THIS APPLIES TO THE IDEAS IN A COMPANY AS WELL SSW Tech Trends 2013
8. Crossing the Chasm (Geoffrey A. Moore) SSW Tech Trends 2013
9. Market maturation When a market has reached equilibrium Low growth Lack of innovation Status quo prevails Mature markets Two or three major suppliers (Tier 1) share the majority of the market Tier 2 suppliers share the remainder Affects product uptake and EXIT strategies SSW Tech Trends 2013
10. Moore’s Law Number of components in an integrated circuit doubles every two years (or so) Done so for around 50 years Growth is slowing – some say! Although a Google search shows that prediction going back quite a few years. Constraints Physics Capital (Estimates @ $50Bn for the 300mm wafer transition) Heat Cost of design complexity Innovations Multi-core Architecture Flexibility Re-use Systems – Semiconductors, Software & Sensors SSW Tech Trends 2013
11. Existing vs Future Markets Existing market In operation Pricing and volumes and specifications understood There will still be trends that can’t be ignored PC market Desktop, Laptop …Tablet Performance, specification (size, screen quality, memory, storage…) Future market Uncertain timescales Technology constrained Demand driven Infrastructure constraints Galileo GPS Uncertain demand Disruption can occur in either market Significantly affects investment profile SSW Tech Trends 2013
12. Post-PC World PC shipments drop by about 6% as consumers opt for tablets (Guardian – 14thJan 2013)to 90m Why? Money is a finite resource Versatility is not utility People are not geeks B2B often ends up with a C SSW Tech Trends 2013
13. IOT Internet of Things Lots of things connected to the Internet and uniquely identifiable Software, Sensors & Semiconductors in a small package Reliability of operation Very low maintenance (batteries or updates) Ease of use Ease of Installation Wireless – Whitespace vs. Managed Cost effective Obvious candidates TV, Audio SSW Tech Trends 2013
14. Life-cycles Life-cycles becoming more dominant Miss a product beat and even large companies struggle Miss a product trend and it can be near-fatal Disruption is the norm Flip-phones, Smart-phones Increased conservatism in the take-up of new technologies? X10 advantage Support costs Design costs Assimilation costs SSW Tech Trends 2013
15. Supply Chains Clusters People Customers Suppliers Capital Cost of transport Change on the High Street “One shop closed every HOUR” – Daily Mail HMV, Comet, Blockbuster Ascendant Data: 2012 VC Investments London – 93 Dublin – 17 Cambridge - 14 Edinburgh - 12 Oxford - 10 SSW Tech Trends 2013
16. Energy A bit of a bandwagon What are the issues? Security of energy supplies Political and logistical Peak oil vsFracking Transport (Automotive) Batteries Safety Connectivity There are spaces Distribution, control and storage Efficiency SSW Tech Trends 2013
17. UK Electronics Systems is an enabling capability Industry Significant value-add component in many other industries Automotive Health Telecomms… Issues attracting young people into the space Invisible magic Lack of visible coherent career path World-class companies, research Initiatives to support Industry Tax Credits to Technology Strategy Board SSW Tech Trends 2013
18. An Entrepreneur See opportunities where others fail! Finds and organises resources Natural, people, ideas, finance Builds and leads a team Adapts to external forces Customers, competitors, markets, technologies Is “hungry” for success Is a “Business Architect/Evangelist” Business models as well as technology SSW Tech Trends 2013
19. Startup Approach? Big Problems that have value Too much technology oversell Significant advantage Disruptive business models Revenue Lean and mean until value created Capital efficient Ability to bootstrap Run the company SSW Tech Trends 2013
20. Selling Methodologies SSW Tech Trends 2013
21. Influences Who will architect the “organisation”. Teams are stronger than individuals Do you know your co-founders Aspirations motivations skills goals/health… Some time for honesty! Balance Too many chefs Do take advice Stakeholders Angel investors Customer expectations Partners Recruiters Advisors VCs SSW Tech Trends 2013
22. The VC World SSW Tech Trends 2013
23. Some Small Company Advantages Nimble More exciting – attract talent Fast growth provides opportunities Faster communication Fewer links in the chain Fewer people to consult Better alignment More Responsive to customers Faster decision-making Access to experts – not layers of field support Fewer elephants You shouldn’t really have any – but they do exist! Easier to eat your own dog food Dare to be different SSW Tech Trends 2013
24. Lessons I’ve learnt Focus on business not technology Do not have a large burn-rate heading into an uncertain market Focus on earning revenues not raising money Being an entrepreneur is more than building a new bit of technology Business models, ability to sell, ability to convince SSW Tech Trends 2013