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IAFS 1000 Uses of Analogy

IAFS 1000 Uses of Analogy. Uses of Historical Analogy • To rally support • To maintain national identity • To simplify complexity. Examples of Analogies • Munich (appeasement) • Vietnam ( “ quagmire ” ) • Somalia (intervention gone wrong) • Cuban Missile (new intelligence)

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IAFS 1000 Uses of Analogy

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  1. IAFS 1000 Uses of Analogy

  2. Uses of Historical Analogy • To rally support • To maintain national identity • To simplify complexity

  3. Examples of Analogies • Munich (appeasement) • Vietnam (“quagmire”) • Somalia (intervention gone wrong) • Cuban Missile (new intelligence) • Post-WWII France (liberation) • Post-WWII Germany, Japan (occupation)

  4. Problems with French Analogy • Clear alternative leader (de Gaulle) vs. fractured Iraqi opposition • France occupied by arch-enemy Germany vs. Iraq under indigenous leader • Alternative regime (Free French) vs. lack of clear alternative in Iraq • Allied action vs. limited “coalition of the willing” in Iraq

  5. Problems with Japanese Analogy • Allied consensus vs. European protest • Peaceful occupation vs. resistance in Iraq • Supportive neighbors vs. regional resentment • Homogenous Japanese society vs. religious/ethnic divisions in Iraq

  6. But then again . . . • Robert Kagan: “Almost six decades later there are still American troops on Japanese soil. Iraq may not be that different.”

  7. Neustadt and May Approach • Subject analogies to serious analysis • Pay attention to the history of the issue at hand • Examine key presumptions • Consider adversary’s view of history • Look at organizational history • Take long-term view

  8. Use of Analogy for Justification • Neustadt and May: analogies as tools for advocating a particular solution • Taylor and Rourke: analogies as justification for policy decisions made for other reasons

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