Financial stability report 2007:1

1. Financial stability report2007:1 24 May 2007

2. CHAPTER 1Financial markets

3. Ten-year government bond ratesPer cent Chart 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin

4. Stock marketsIndex, 2 January 2002 = 100 Chart 1:2 Source: Reuters EcoWin

5. P/E ratios Chart 1:3 Source: Reuters EcoWin

6. Implied stock-market volatilityPer cent Chart 1:4 Source: Bloomberg

7. Global level of bankruptciesPercentage of all companies rated Ba/BBB or lower Chart 1:5 Source: Reuters EcoWin

8. High-yield corporate bond spreads in Europe and the United StatesPercentage points Chart 1:6 Source: Reuters EcoWin

9. Premia in CDS indicesBasis points Chart 1:7 Source: Bloomberg

10. Households with payment problems in the US house mortgage marketPer cent, seasonally adjusted Chart B1 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

11. Premia for credit derivatives on US house mortgage loansBasis points Note. Loans classified as BBB−. Chart B2 Source: JP Morgan

12. Credit spreads for bonds issued by emerging-market economiesPercentage points Chart 1:8 Source: Bloomberg

13. Oil price and commodity price indexUSD per barrel and index, January 2002=100 Chart 1:9 Sources: Reuters EcoWin och The Economist

14. GDP growthPercentage annual rate Chart B3 Source: Reuters EcoWin

15. Balance on current accountPer cent of GDP Chart B4 Source: Reuters EcoWin

16. HICP inflationPercentage 12-month rate Chart B5 Source: Eurostat

17. Real interbank interest ratesPer cent Chart B6 Source: Reuters EcoWin

18. Corporate loan stocks in the Baltic states and SwedenPer cent Chart B7 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

19. Household sector loan stocks in the Baltic states and SwedenPer cent Chart B8 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

20. CHAPTER 2The Swedish banks´ borrowers

21. Household borrowingPercentage 12-month change Chart 2:1 Source: The Riksbank

22. Duration of fixed interest periods for new house mortgage loansPer cent Chart 2:2 Source: The Riksbank

23. Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure in relation to disposable incomePer cent Chart 2:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

24. House prices and mortgage debtPercentage annual change Chart 2:4 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

25. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (forecast) Households below the margin Impaired loans Potential loan losses Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan lossesPer cent Chart 2:5 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

26. Proportions of debt, financial wealth and real wealth held by the indebted households in each income groupPer cent Chart 2:6 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

27. Household sector loan stocks in the Baltic states and SwedenPer cent Chart 2:7 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

28. Nominal and real house price increases 2000 – 2006 in Nordic countries and the Baltic statesPer cent Chart 2:8 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin

29. Nominal and real house price increases 2000 – 2006 in Nordic countries and the Baltic statesPer cent Chart B9 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

30. Corporate borrowing from credit institutionsPercentage twelve-month change, moving three month average Chart 2:9 Source: The Riksbank

31. Corporate loans from securities markets and credit institutionsSEK billion Chart 2:10 Source: The Riksbank

32. Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companiesPer cent of all listed companies Chart 2:11 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

33. Number of corporate defaults by company sizeTwelve-month moving average Chart 2:12 Source: Statistics Sweden

34. Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companiesPer cent Chart 2:13 Source: Moody’s KMV

35. Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non-financial companiesPer cent Chart 2:14 Source: Moody’s KMV

36. Listed companies with a default probability of 1 per cent or morePer cent of all listed companies Sources:Moody´s KMV and the Riksbank Chart 2:15

37. Expected default frequency (EDF), outcomes and forecast with the Riksbank’s main scenarioPer cent Chart 2:16 Sources: National central banks

38. Corporate borrowing from credit institutions in the Baltic statesPercentage 12-month change Chart 2:17 Sources: National central banks

39. Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companiesPer cent Chart 2:18 Source: Moody´s KMV

40. Real prices for office premises in central locationsIndex 1981 = 100 Chart 2:19 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank

41. Vacancy rates for office premises in central locationsPer cent Chart 2:20 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank

42. Average direct yield required for office premises in central locationsPer cent Chart 2:21 Sources: Newsec AB and EcoWin

43. Chapter 3Developments in the banks

44. Composition of pre-tax return on equityPercentage points Chart 3:1 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

45. Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banksFour-quarter totals, SEK billion, 2007 prices Chart 3:2 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

46. Implied volatility of bank equityPer cent, moving 10-day average Chart 3:3 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

47. The major banks’ securities-related commission income and Stockholm Stock Exchange turnoverSEK million and index: 1997=100 Chart 3:4 Sources: Banks reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

48. Cost efficiency of the major Swedish banksPer cent Chart 3:5 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

49. Net interest margin and spreads for the major bankson deposits, bank loans and mortgage loansPer cent, moving 4-quarter average Chart B10 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank

50. Lending by credit institutions to the corporate sector in SwedenPer cent, moving 4-quarter average Source: The Riksbank Chart 3:6