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NOAA's Space Weather Program   Contributions to NSWP December 12, 2005. Presented to NSWP Assessment Team. NOAA’s Space Weather Program. One of 45 Programs in NOAA Charter Established, 2005 Mission Requirements Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment

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Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

NOAA's Space Weather Program  

Contributions to NSWP

December 12, 2005

Presented to

NSWP Assessment Team


Noaa s space weather program

NOAA’s Space Weather Program

  • One of 45 Programs in NOAA

  • Charter Established, 2005

  • Mission Requirements

    • Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment

    • Provide timely and accurate space weather, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena

    • Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space wather data

    • Understand the processes that influence space weather develop applications for the user community

    • Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather needs


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

NOAA’s

relationship

to National

Program

2

5

4

1

3


Noaa observing systems architecture nosa

Space

Weather

Atmosphere

Terrestrial

Weather

Snow

Pack

Air Quality

Estuaries

Oceans

Fresh Water

Coasts

Soil Moisture

NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA)

Design observing systems that support NOAA's mission and provide maximum value.

Includes all observing systems required to support NOAA's mission (NOAA and non-NOAA data sources)

Space weather observations are integrated into NOSA

Environmental Services

NOAA is focused on building “an integrated global environmental observation and data

management system”—an Earth observation system that is comprehensive and sustained.


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Monitor, Measure and Specify Data for Today’s Space Weather

  • Ground Sites

    • Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)

    • Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF)

    • SOON Sites (USAF)

    • RSTN (USAF)

    • Telescopes and Magnetographs

    • Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)

    • GPS (CORS)

  • SOHO (NASA)

    • Solar EUV Images

    • Solar Corona (CMEs)

NASA SOHO

  • ACE (NASA)

    • Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles

    • Magnetic field strength and direction

L1

NASA ACE

NOAA GOES

  • GOES (NOAA)

    • Energetic Particles

    • Magnetic Field

    • Solar X-ray Flux

    • Solar X-Ray Images

NOAA POES

  • POES (NOAA)

    • High Energy Particles

    • Total Energy Deposition

    • Solar UV Flux


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04)

GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan)

(Launch: 4/25/97, Operational)

GOES 11(Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage)

GOES 12(Launch: 7/23/01, Operational)

GOES N0P(Launch GOES N early 2006)

GOES RSeries starts 2012

GOES 10

GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation

  • Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS)

  • Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and

  • alpha particle fluxes

  • e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV

  • Lower energy electrons and protons begin on GOES N

  • Heavy Ions begin on GOES R

  • Magnetometer (MAG)

  • Monitors the vector magnetic field

  • 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT

  • X-Ray Sensor (XRS)

  • Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands

  • 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms

  • Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12

  • One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels,

  • 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array

  • Solar EUV Sensor (EUVS) – first on GOES N

  • Monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in five bands

  • between 10 and 125 nm

  • Coronagraph (SCOR) –GOES R ??

  • Pre-Planned Product Improvement (not yet manifested)

SXI: NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership


Polar observations poes metop npoess

Polar Observations (POES, METOP, NPOESS)

  • POES and METOP

    • Total Energy Detector (TED)

      • 50 eV to 20 KeV electrons and ions

      • Total energy deposition into atmosphere

    • Medium Energy Proton And Electron Detector (MEPED)

      • Electrons from 30 KeV to 2.5 MeV

      • Ions from 30 KeV to 6.9 MeV

      • Protons 16 MeV to >140 MeV

    • Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV 2 or GOME on METOP)

      • Primarily an ozone sensor

      • Monitors solar irradiance from 140 to 340 nm

  • NPOESS

    • HEPS,MEPS, LEPS

      • Particle sensors

      • similar to TED and MEPED

    • Thermal Plasma Sensor

      • Electric fields and plasma temperatures

      • similar to DMSP SSIES

    • AURORA

      • UV airglow sensor

      • Similar to DMSP SSUSI

    • Total Solar and Spectral Irradiance Sensor

      • similar to NASA SORCE TIM and SIM

  • Operational Satellites

  • NOAA14 (marginal SEM, marginal SBUV)

  • NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV)

  • NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV)

  • NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV)

  • NOAA-18 (working SEM, working SBUV)

  • NOAA-N’ (2008)

  • METOP-1 (2006) European Collaboration

  • METOP-2 (2010) European Collaboration

  • NPOESS (2013?)


Examples of ground based observations used in space weather operations

Examples of Ground-Based Observationsused in Space Weather Operations

Mt. Wilson Solar Magnetogram

  • Solar

    • AF SEON, NSO SOLIS, HAO Mauna Loa, NJIT Big Bear, Stanford Wilcox, Mt. Wilson, Penticton radio F10.7, NSO GONG

  • Cosmic Rays

    • Thule and McMurdo Neutron Monitor

  • Ionosphere

    • AF DISS Network and other globally distributed ionosondes

    • NOAA CORS and other global GPS networks

  • Magnetic Field

    • USGS and Intermagnet Magnetometers

  • Energetic particle precipitation

    • Thule RIOmeter

Mauna Loa H-alpha

USGS Magnetometer

Real-time

ionospheric electron density using CORS


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

The Future:

Observations are needed for Space Exploration

  • Near the Earth and

  • under the radiation belts -

  • Shuttle and ISS ops:

  • EVA scheduling, and

  • occasional “sheltering”.

  • Knowledge of current SWx

  • situation required.

  • In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations:

  • Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge

  • of current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhances

  • exploration.

  • Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars:Need for optimization

  • of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions.

  • Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

DoD Customers

and Operations

Civilian Customers

and Operations

DoD

SEC

Space Weather Model Development

Rapid Prototyping Centers

Verification

Documentation

CCMC

Model Access

Validation

Metrics

Space Weather Research Community

Targeted

Space Weather

Research

NSF/AF/ONR/NOAA

Living

With a Star

NASA

Core

Space Science

Research

Center for

Integrated

Space Weather

Modeling

NSF

Multi-University

Research

Initiatives

AF/ONR


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Research to Operations: Testbed Products

Shue et al. Magnetopause Model (Detman / SEC)

Wang, Sheeley, Arge Solar Wind Model (Arge / NOAA CIRES)

POES Polar Cap Solar Protons (Evans, Greer / SEC)

CISM Ap Forecast Model

(Weigel, Gehmeyr et al. / CU)

Weimer Magnetic Disturbance Model

(Weimer / MRC)

Polar Cap HF Propagation Model (Sauer / NGDC, Fuller-Rowell / NOAA CIRES)


Sec product development and transition process

SEC Product Development and Transition Process

  • Concept and Initiation

    • Be user focused (target highest priority needs)

    • Consider many sources of potential transition candidates

      • Within and external to SEC (CISM, CCMC, USAF, commercial, etc.)

    • Rank transition candidates against these factors:

      • Strategic Importance, Operational Significance, Implementation Readiness

    • Have commitment of SEC Management in SEC AOP

  • Planning and Implementation

    • Employ appropriate level of project management principles

    • Use iterative development and validation

    • Generate routine experimental products in an operational-like (systems and data) test bed environment


Sec product development and transition process1

SEC Product Development and Transition Process

  • Approval and Delivery

    • Track and sign off critical internal transition steps

      • Documentation, software CM, support procedures, training, etc.

    • Release as a NWS test product for external review

    • Finalize product and get SEC and NWS approval

    • Advertise new product in appropriately

      • WWW, announcements, publications, meetings, etc.

  • Maintain and Assess for Continual Improvement

    • Establish appropriate performance metrics

    • Track product performance through ongoing verification

    • Explore product enhancements or replacement as technology evolves or new opportunities occur


Space weather week bridging the gap of research to operations

Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations

April 5 - 8, 2005

  • An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes:

  • Space environment effects

  • Impacts on economy, health, and safety

  • Information for decision makers

  • Relevant research

  • Service enhancements

  • Vendor meetings

  • Interagency coordination

  • International Space Environment Services meetings

http://sec.noaa.gov/sww


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

DOE

Nuclear Reg Comm

Schlumberger

NY/PJM Grid

Ball

Loral

NESDIS/SOCC

Digital Globe

Boeing

Lockheed

Aerospace

Echostar

NASA

Space Command

ISS Astronauts

FAA

American

United Airlines

Northwest

Continental

  • A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA space weather services today:

  • U.S. power grid infrastructure

  • Commercial airline industry

  • Dep. of Transportation ( GPS)

  • NASA human space flight activities

  • Satellite launch and operations

  • DoD Operations

Commercial Space

Transportation

Airline Polar Flights

Microchip technology

Precision Guided Munitions

Cell phones

Atomic Clock

Satellite Operations

Carbon Dating experiments

GPS Navigation

Ozone Measurements

Aircraft Radiation Hazard

Commercial TV Relays

Communications Satellite Orientation

Spacecraft Charging

Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote

Sensing Instrument Damage

Geophysical Exploration.

Pipeline Operations

Anti-Submarine Detection

Satellite Power Arrays

Power Distribution

Long-Range Telephone Systems

Radiation Hazards to Astronauts

Interplanetary Satellite experiments

VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN)

Over the Horizon Radar

Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites

Research & Operations Requirements

Satellite Orbit Prediction

Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments

Ionospheric Rocket experiments

Short-wave Radio Propagation

Growth of Space Weather

Customers

NOAA Space

Environment

Center

Sunspot Cycles


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

UAL POLAR ROUTES

NEW YORK

82 N

CHICAGO

#1

#1A

#2

#3

#4

BEIJING

SHANGHAI

HONG KONG

OSAKA

TOKYO

Source: M. Stills, UAL


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23

  • The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month

  • Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer Summary

Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.

  • ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products

  • more than 250,000 unique customers per month

  • customers from 150 countries

  • NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.

  • A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

  • Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only)

  • – 140,000 unique users monthly

  • Five million POES file transfers per month (web only)

  • – 185,000 unique users monthly

  • – 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data

All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Service Begins

Lockheed Martin Management

NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…

NASDA (Japan) Mission Control

CSA (Canada) Mission Control

  • NASA Mission Control

  • NASA Management

  • Flight Control

  • Biomedical Engineers

  • Surgeon

ESA (Europe) Mission Control

NASA

Space Radiation

Analysis Group

RSA (Russia) Mission Control

NOAA/SEC

Radiation

Alert/Warning

Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

  • 46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:

  • 35 updating Plots,

  • 8 real-time lists

  • 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"

  • Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data

  • A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

  • SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month.

ACE RTSW customers are

from 62 domains, the top users:

Japan U.S. Government

.com (commercial) United Kingdom

Education .net (commercial)

Germany Russia

Australia Belgium


Loss of noaa s ability to issue warnings of geomagnetic storms

No Solar

Wind Measurements

Nominal Mission

Extended Mission

ACE

1996

2000

2004

2008

2016

2012

Loss of NOAA’s Ability to Issue Warnings of Geomagnetic Storms

ACE – Solar Wind Monitoring

  • Critical solar wind data used by NOAA is broadcast from the ACE NASA research satellite

  • ACE has long passed its expected 5 year life time

  • There is no backup system (that meets requirements) to replace ACE when it fails

  • NOAA’s broad area announcement is refining best cost and

  • schedule options for replacement including:

  • - collaborative data purchase

  • - lowest cost government satellite

  • - lowest cost Triana/DSCVR refurbishment

Loss of Solar Wind Data

Impact: Loss of service includes: ending many geomagnetic storm warning services and a significant decline in accuracy and timing for the remaining geomagnetic storm forecast products; loss of key data input to 16 space weather models in operations or in development; and loss of key data for vendor services.

  • Issue #1: NASA will end ACE program(NASA’s research mission accomplished; however, ACE has fuel reserve to last to ~2015).

    • Solutions:Extend ACE solar wind monitoring by:

    • ● NASA transfers ACE program to NOAA

    • ● NOAA funds NASA to continue ACE programIssue #2: ACE fails

    • Solutions:NOAA establishes monitoring by:

    • ● Data buy or satellite program (start ~2010)

    • ● Relying on non-U.S. source (e.g., KuaFu

    • mission - proposed Chinese space weather

    • satellite with a launch date ~2012)


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data

  • SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations

  • Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow

  • Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet

  • ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six


P3i coronagraph needed to improve geomagnetic storm forecasts

P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts

A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes:

  • Did a CME occur?

  • Will the CME hit the Earth, thus causing a geomagnetic storm?

  • When will the storm begin?

    - 1 to 3 days warning

  • How strong will the storm be?

  • How long will the storm last?

Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003

NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

NOAA/SEC Real Time Data

- an absolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations

>80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data

NOAA/SEC Data

(Primarily Satellite)

STRATCOM

Space Command

USAF

Air Force

Weather Agency

Army and Navy

Operations

Missile

Defense Agency

National Reconnaissance

Office

U.S. Northern Command

and NORAD

Joint Space

Ops Center

- Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets

- Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems

- Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews

- HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations

- SATCOM interference/downlink problems

- Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations

National

Security

Impacts


Noaas space weather program contributions to nswp december 12 2005

Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Weather Products


Solar wind monitor impact of ace failure on space weather services

Solar Wind MonitorImpact of ACE Failure on Space Weather Services

  • Only known method of producing accurate warnings of geomagnetic storms with ~1 hour lead time

    • > 90 % reliability of predicting major storms

  • Complete loss of short term geomagnetic storm warnings

    • 5 classes of products lost (Impulse, K4, K5, K6, >K7)

  • Impact on other geomagnetic storm watches

  • Impact on radiation storm products

  • Customer Impacts

    • Only source of reliable short term warnings disappears

    • Commerce impacted: Electric Power, Radio Communication including airlines, Pipelines, Vendor Industry

    • U.S. Space Program and Federal Agencies Impacted

      • NASA, FAA, NRA

    • International commerce impacted, same effects world-wide


National research council report

Solar Wind Monitor

National Research Council Report

  • NASA’s ACE satellite at L1

  • Beyond design lifetime (1997-2002)

  • NASA currently funds through 2005

  • Solar Wind monitor follow-on planning

  • underway in NOAA and partnerships

  • are being explored

ACE Satellite

At L1

DoD and NOAA should be the lead agencies in acquiring all the data sets needed for accurate specification and forecast modeling…

www.nap.edu


Commercial aviation now and future

Commercial Aviation:Now and Future

Polar Routes Open

late 1990s

(UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day)

Need more Space Weather

Products and Services

Develop New Products

New Products in System

Existing NWS Structure

WAFS/ICAO

Joint Planning &

Development

Office

Next Generation Air

Transportation System

Triple the Capacity

of Airspace

More Radiation and

Navigation Issues

Need more Space Weather

Products and Services

Aircraft Fly Higher


Predicted polar route capacity

Predicted Polar Route Capacity

Source: Transport Canada Assumptions Report 2005-2019, September 2005, p. 60


Sec observation sources

SEC Observation Sources

ACE

GOES

POES

SOHO

  • DISS

  • IMS

  • SCINDA

  • SEON

  • SOON


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