Science and Technology Infusion Plan
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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Marine Services Jeff Savadel NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Outline Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary Marine Services Team Composition

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan

for

Marine Services

Jeff Savadel

NWS S&T Committee

September 17, 2002


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Outline

  • Team Composition

  • Vision / Benefits

  • Goals / Targets

  • Key Information Gaps

  • Key Solutions

  • Outstanding R & D Needs

  • Summary


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Marine ServicesTeam Composition

  • Jeff Savadel - NWS/OST

  • Therese Pierce - NWS/OCWWS

  • Marty Ralph - OAR/ETL

  • James Partain - NWS/NCEP

  • Tom Ainsworth - NWS/WR

  • Andy Patrick - NWS/SR

  • Greg Mann – NWS/CR

  • C-S Wu - NWS/OST

  • Wendell Nuss - Naval Postgraduate School

  • Larry Burroughs - NWS/NCEP

  • Richard May - NWS/OCCWS


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Marine ServicesVision / Benefits

Vision

Forecast Accuracy for Winds and Waves of 75% at 10 Days

  • Reduce Storm-Related Mariner Losses by 25%

  • Expected Savings of $700M/Year (Heinz Center Report)

  • Expected Savings $30M/Year – Gulf of Maine Study (2002)


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Low Risk

High Risk

On Track

Marine ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

* Realistic goal as set by team


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Marine ServicesKey Information Gaps

  • More Atmospheric and Oceanic Observations – Ocean, Coastal, Great Lakes (i.e. Large Data Voids)

  • More Accurate 3D Picture of Atmosphere – Ocean, Coastal, Great Lakes (No Observations in Vertical)

  • Improve Model Resolution and Physics

  • More Training/Decision Support Systems


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Marine ServicesKey S&T Solutions


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Marine Services Key S&T Solutions

Expand Buoy Network / Coastal Profilers *

Deployment

Observations

Buoy Profilers

OTE

METOP- ASCAT 12km

SSM/I + SSMIS

NPP - NPOESS

DTE

ADEOS2

8 km WRF *

R&D

45 km GFS

DA/NWP

10 km Wave Model

Coupled Land/Ocean/Atm

GODAS

Coupled Ocean/Atm/Ice *

SAFESEAS

Applications

Marine PDS

Training

01

02

05

06

07

08

04

10

09

11

12

03


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Marine ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs

  • Continue Development and Evaluation of New Observing Systems

  • Improve NWP of Marine Boundary Layer

  • Improve Understanding of Meso-Scale Atmospheric/Oceanic Processes in Coastal Zones

  • Develop Methods to Deliver Marine Info (Text and Graphics) to All Mariners

  • Develop Coastal Flood Model


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Marine ServicesSummary

Vision

75% Wind and Wave Accuracy

  • R&D Needs

  • Develop New Observing Systems

  • Improve NWP of Marine Boundary Layer

  • Improve Understanding of Meso-Scale Atmospheric/Oceanic Processes in Coastal Zones

  • Develop Advanced Dissemination Methods

  • Develop Coastal Flood Model

Increasing Performance

  • Improve Coupling of Ocean/Atm Model

  • Improve Decision Support Systems

  • Improve Remote Sensing Capabilities

  • Improve Ocean/Atm Model Resolution and Physics

  • Increase 3D Coastal and Ocean Obs.

Continuous Training / Regional Workshops

2002

2007

2012

2020



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Primary Customers/Partners

  • General Public

  • Professional mariners

  • National Ocean Service

  • U.S. Navy

  • U.S. Coast Guard

  • Maritime Administration

  • Corps of Engineers

  • Dept. of Defense

  • Federal Management Agency

  • U.S. Geological Survey

  • American Red Cross

  • World Meteorological Organization


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Key Products/Services

  • Data

    • buoy, C-MAN, ship observations, Ice observations

  • Forecasts

    • coastal waters, nearshore, recreational, bay and coastal marine, surf, open lake, ice, Alaska bay and coastal

    • high seas, offshore, navtex, extratropical storm surge

  • Warnings

    • special marine, marine weather statements, lakeshore, coastal flood

    • Tsunami


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Marine ServicesWind Accuracy


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Marine ServicesWave Accuracy


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Marine ServicesWind Warning Accuracy


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Marine ServicesWind Warning Accuracy


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Marine ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Discontinue


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