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Fall 2008 Version Professor Dan C. Jones FINA 4355 Risk Management and Insurance: Perspectives in a Global Economy 5. Catastrophe Risk Assessment: Natural Hazards Professor Dan C. Jones FINA 4355 Study Points Catastrophic events Definitions Trends Types of natural disasters

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Fall 2008 Version

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Fall 2008 Version

Professor Dan C. Jones

FINA 4355


Risk Management and Insurance: Perspectives in a Global Economy5. Catastrophe Risk Assessment: Natural Hazards

Professor Dan C. Jones

FINA 4355


Study Points

  • Catastrophic events

    • Definitions

    • Trends

  • Types of natural disasters

  • Gee Gees (Insight 5.3)


Swiss Re Definition for 2007 Reporting Period

For 2006 Reporting Period:

Shipping – 16.1M

Aviation – 32.2 M

Other Losses – 40 M

Or Total Losses – 80M


(United Nations) – Munich Re Definition


Frequency of Catastrophes (Figure 5.1) → 2007


Overall and Insured Losses

  • Yearly economic and insured losses from great natural catastrophes, along with trend lines for each.

  • Economic reasons explain much of the concentration trend.

    • Additionally, people are drawn to areas that hold potential for greater economic prosperity, such as cities.

  • Personal reasons explain this concentration trend.

  • Figure 5.2


Overall and Insured Losses (Figure 5.2)


Insured Losses (Figure 5.2) → 2007


Types of Natural Disasters

  • Earthquakes

  • Storms

  • Floods

  • Volcanism


Storm

Volcanic Eruption

Earthquake

Other

Flood

Source: World of Natural Hazards (2000)

World Map of Natural Hazards


Earthquakes

  • Earthquakes are caused by friction between moving tectonic plates.

    • Earthquakes originate at fairly well-defined faults.

  • The Pacific Rim is especially prone to earthquake activity

    • Ring of Fire (Figure 5.3)

  • Recent events

    • 1976 Tangshan, China

    • 2003 Iranian earthquake

    • 2005 in Kashmir, Pakistan


Ring of Fire


Tsunamis and Earthquakes

  • Tsunami

    • Large, rapidly moving ocean waves produced by the displacement of water caused by earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions or even a sufficiently large meteorite impact.

  • December 26, 2004, Tsunami near Indonesia

  • Canary Islands (Insight 5.1)


Storms

  • Generically known as “tropical storms”

  • Various names by region

    • Typhoon

    • Severe tropical cyclone

    • Severe cyclonic storm

    • Tropical cyclone


Beaufort Scale of Wind Velocity


Saffir–Simpson Scale


Average Number of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes


2005 Hurricane Season

  • A highly active start to the season

  • Peak intensity values

  • Lowest central pressure ever recorded

  • Record number of named tropical cyclones

  • New areas affected – Europe and Africa

  • Hurricane Katrina (U.S.) and a failure of government

    • Insight 5.2

Also check “A Failure of Initiative”


Floods

  • Partial or complete inundation of a normally dry land area caused by an overflow of tidal, river, or lake water or after a heavy rain

    • 100-year flood

  • Flood damage can result from a single event, such as a hurricane or thunderstorm. Floods also occur due to repeated exposure to rainfall.

Is Your Home Safe?


Volcanism

  • Volcano

    • The vents in the earth’s crust through which gases, molten rock or lava, and solid fragments are discharged and to the conical shaped mountains or hills produced by the lava and other erupted material around the vent

    • Lava

    • Magma

  • Volcanic hazard assessment

  • Climate change and volcanism


Worst Catastrophes – Casualty (History)

  • Storm and flood in Bangladesh (11/14/1970) → 300,000

  • Earthquake [M7.5] in China (7/28/1976) → 255,000

  • Earthquake [M9] and tsunami in Indonesia (12/26/2004) → 220,000

  • Cyclone Gorky in Bangladesh (4/29/1991) → 138,000

  • Earthquake [M7.7] and landslide (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan) → 73,300…

  • Heat wave in Europe (6/1/2003) → 35,000

  • Kobe, Japan, earthquake [M7.2] (1/17/1995) → 6,425


Worst Catastrophes – Cost (History)

  • Hurricane Katrina in the US (8/25/2005) → $68B

  • Hurricane Andrew in the US (8/23/1992) → $23B

  • Terror attacks in the US (09/11/2001) → $22B

  • Northridge earthquake [M6.6] in the US (1/17/1994) → $19B

  • Hurricane Ivan in the US (9/2/2004) → $14B…

  • Earthquake [M9] and tsunami in Indonesia (12/26/2004) → $2B


Summary of Discussion – Gee Gees (Insight 5.3)

Add your/students’ points!


Discussion Questions


Discussion Question 1

  • Is your country of birth or residence immune from natural catastrophe? If not, find the records of recent natural events that caused human casualty, property damage or both. Do they meet the definition of catastrophe by an international organization or insurer?


Discussion Question 2

  • Discuss why tsunamis are closely related to earthquakes.


Discussion Question 3

  • What are the possible factors affecting the rise of natural catastrophes in modern society? Describe the factors also reflecting the environments in the region with which you are familiar (e.g., the Caribbean, northern European or South Pacific).


Discussion Question 4

  • Investigate the process of recovery from Hurricane Katrina (U.S.), the 2004 tsunami (Indian Ocean), or any major natural catastrophe in recent years. Examine the scale, scope and speed of the process to estimate how long it will take to complete it.


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