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September 9, 2009 CEC Staff Workshop SCAQMD, Diamond Bar, CA Ron Gremban, Technical Lead The California Cars Initiative

Accelerating Vehicle Electrification September 9, 2009 CEC Staff Workshop SCAQMD, Diamond Bar, CA Ron Gremban, Technical Lead The California Cars Initiative rgremban@calcars.org For updated PDF of presentations: www.calcars.org/downloads 2008: First preview of a new industry

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September 9, 2009 CEC Staff Workshop SCAQMD, Diamond Bar, CA Ron Gremban, Technical Lead The California Cars Initiative

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  1. Accelerating Vehicle Electrification September 9, 2009CEC Staff WorkshopSCAQMD, Diamond Bar, CARon Gremban, Technical LeadThe California Cars Initiativergremban@calcars.org For updated PDF of presentations:www.calcars.org/downloads 2008: First preview of a new industry Ali Emadi, Felix Kramer, Andy Grove, & Andy Frank at Plug-In 2008 in San Jose

  2. A quick reminder: Electricity is better than gas! • I am about to publish a White Paper that uses EPA, CAFÉ, and Argonne National Labs data to establish that electric/gasoline-ICE Energy Economy Ratios (EERs) are actually much higher than the 3.0 that the CEC uses for all calculations of the value of electric propulsion: • 5.2 est. (73% better) for used light trucks likely to be candidates for plug-in conversion • 4.7 (57% better for EVs than 3.0) for passenger cars meeting 2009 CAFÉ standards • 3.6 (20% better) for passenger cars meeting 2020 U.S. / 2016 California CAFÉ standards • 2.8 for the 2004-9 Prius which, at 64 mpg EPA, already meets 150% of 2020/2016 CAFE 1. ECONOMICS: CHEAPER -- electric miles at a quarter the cost 2. CLIMATE: CLEANER --50% less CO2, even on the half-coal national power grid 3. ENERGY SECURITY: DOMESTIC -- Only 1.5% of U.S. electricity comes from oil

  3. Nonprofit Startup: CalCars’ successes & challenges • In 2004, no one believed PHEVs were viable, and auto manufacturers claimed that no one would ever want to plug in a car. • CalCars: • Demonstrated low-tech conversions of a mass produced hybrid into a PHEV, • Aggressively pursued public awareness, education, and partnerships with environmental, national security, technology, and other advocacy groups • Worked to build grassroots consumer pressure on industry and government • Created an open-source technology exchange Technology (demos) Advocacy (buyers) Progress: 2004 2006 2009

  4. Unprecedented broad support & alliances UTILITIES & FLEET BUYERS RechargeIT HYBRID CONVERSION COMPANIES SUPPLIERS & COMPONENT-MAKERS JOBS & FACTORY CONVERSIONs ENVIRONMENTALISTS & EV FANS NEO-CONS / GEO-GREENS 4

  5. President Obama/Congress on PHEV Policies • Stimulus Package and Since • $2,500-$7,500 tax credit: 200,000 new plug-ins from each manufacturer • 10% tax credits up to $4,000 for plug-in conversions • $2 billion advanced battery research • Plug-in cars as way to meethigher CAFE MPG standards • $400 million for infrastructure deployment, regional deployment • $300 million federal purchases • 30% tax credits advanced manufacturing investments • Goal: 1 million PHEVs by 2015 • Key element of Waxman-Markey global warming solutions bill Notice that this is not seen as a way to EXCEED higher CAFÉ standards Nov ’07 Googleplex; March ’09 SoCalEd. ’06: “When it becomes possible in the coming years, we should make sure that every government car is a plug-in hybrid.” 5

  6. 18+ carmakers interested; race to be first; few timetables (see CalCars Carmakers page summary) Chevy Volt: 2009 demo, 2010 production; Opel Ampera; blended PHEV SUV 2011 on sale 2009: small demo fleet 6

  7. But for near- & mid-term impacts, retrofits are needed! Source: CalCars white paper (see last slide) New plug-ins, even at a 10x faster rate than hybrids (21% vs. 2.2% in 10 years) won’t be a significant percentage of fleet until 2025-2030 • This new plug-in penetration rate extrapolates from Obama’s goal of 1M by 2015, and is up to a decade faster than CEC’s maximum Scenario 3 • This conversion rate has been restricted to require earlier but no additional battery manufacturing capacity • Both may be optimistic. In any case,retrofits can accelerate impacts by at least a decade! Note: biofuel penetration rate is a broad estimate

  8. But can ICE vehicles be converted en masse? Once again, CalCars has begun a campaign for something valuable but not yet seen as viable. This time, for proof-of-concept demonstrations, we have discovered several start-up companies that have applied known technologies in innovative ways. • Converting gas guzzlers -- the nearly 50% of light vehicles classified as trucks -- is easiest, saves the most gasoline, and is the most economically viable. • Conversions to PHEVs have the highest market appeal, but conversions to BEVs are easier and can still satisfy many specific fleet requirements. • Several companies are demonstrating ICE-to-PHEV conversions that add to, instead of replacing, the existing drivetrain, thus radically reducing costs. • Batteries are the concern and the enabler • Volume Li-ion pack costs are already safe, long-lived (though needing road testing), and approaching $600/useful-kWh in high volume, or $300 per mile of light truck electric range, so a 20-EV-mile PHEV-20 light truck’s battery would cost just $6000. • Non-Li-ion chemistries are viable, too: NiMH is mature, and advanced lead-acid may soon better NiMH at much lower cost; either can power PHEV-20 trucks.

  9. But can ICE vehicles be converted en masse (con’t)? • As with new vehicles, automotive-volume production can lower costs dramatically • The CEC Investment Plan can help achieve that • HEV-to-PHEV-20 conversioncosts, already $10-14k for the Prius with just 100’s built, should reach $6k -- $8k for larger sedans and $10k for light trucks -- in “minimal automotive” quantities of tens of thousands • There is a cost of creating custom conversions for each vehicle model and production series (several model years), but this is already figured in and will first be done for high-volume vehicles with millions of each on the road. • Added costs for ICE-to-PHEV conversions that retain the OEM drivetrain are limited to • The cost of the motor/generator, its control and power electronics, its mechanical connections and mounting, and their installation • One-time R&D expertise, time, and expense required to perfect the admittedly-difficult ICE/electric control system • We project installed prices of $10k for sedans and $16k for light trucks in “minimal automotive” quantities • ICE-to-BEV conversions do not need the tricky ICE/electric control system of PHEV conversions, but do need bigger, more expensive batteries as well as electrification of power steering, brakes, and cabin heating/cooling. • We project BEV conversions to sell in “minimal automotive” volumes for • $17k for sedans with 50 mile EV range; $27k for 100 miles • $25k for light trucks with 50 mile EV range; $40k for 100 miles

  10. But can ICE vehicles be converted en masse (con’t)? • Auto manufacturers, their supply chains, and their dealers could develop new revenue streams, increase customer loyalty, create green jobs, and help the environment, our economy, and national security -- all by: • Providing their customers with upgrade paths for the products they own, like most other high-tech industries. • Computers, smart-phones, etc, are all upgradeable with additional and/or improved parts (e.g. more RAM, higher-capacity disk drives, next-generation optical drives, additional software applications). • Software manufacturers routinely make more money selling upgrades than the original program. • Why not treat automobiles, too – which remain in customer hands far longer than most products, long enough to become hopelessly obsolete without an upgrade path – as a revenue stream throughout their lifetime? • Using shut-down factories and laid-off workers to manufacture conversion kits that dealers can then earn income by installing • The California Air Resources Board is proving, with its pioneering new standards for certification of HEV-to-PHEV conversions, that vehicle conversions can be safe, low-emissions, and affordable. • The CEC can help provide the seed funds and paradigm legitimacy to create a new automotive business model, move small-scale ICE-to-PHEV innovators into volume production and partnership with auto manufacturers, and launch a new industry. • The start-up conversion businesses up next have each developed something of value, but have not yet found the funding for third-party validation and volume production.

  11. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technologies, Inc. • Uniquely converting America’s most popular pickup truck, the Ford F-150, to a plug-in hybrid; more than 15 months of testing. • Up to 30 miles all-electric range; up to 40% MPG improvement as a hybrid (beyond all-electric range). • Up to 180,000 pounds of CO2 savings in 12 years; V2G capability; increased low-speed torque for better towing. • ESTIMATED COST IN VOLUME PRODUCTION: $15,000 OR LESS. • Seeking investment funding. • World’s First Plug-in Hybrid Electric Pickup Truck, hevt.com Chicago IL • Founder: IIT Prof. Ali Emadi, leading power electronics expert. • 40 million trucks/buses in U.S; 2 million added annually. • F-150 prototype design scales to F-250, 350, school and transit buses. • Simple payback: 2-5 years.

  12. Rapid Electric Vehicle Technologies, Inc. rapidelectricvehicles.com Vancouver British Columbia • Developing partnerships with Canadian dealers. • All-electric and PHEVs starting with Ford trucks and SUVs. • Contracts pending with public and private fleets. • Seeking investment funding.

  13. Efficient Drivetrains Inc. efficientdrivetrains.com San Francisco- Sacramento region • CoFounder & CTO Prof. Andy Frank, UC Davis, inventor of modern PHEV. • Working with car/truck OEMs, conversions, first-tier suppliers to embed innovative drivetrain system designs, components -- parallel, series, and retrofit technologies. • Patent portfolio: hybrid fundamentals, continuously variable transmissions, energy management systems. • Projects in U.S., Europe, and Asia : two-wheeler, V2.0 parallel PHEV drivetrain for light and medium duty, inline CVT, CVT integration, and controllers. • 2008/2009 operations funded from customer revenues. • Seeking $2-3M in expansion funding now.

  14. Poulsen Hybrid, LLC poulsenhybrid.com Shelton, CT $8,600 suggested retail price (before tax incentives) for complete Poulsen Hybrid System installed with 4.5 kWh Lithium-ion batteries, wheel motors and brackets. • Conversions for the most popular compact cars & SUVs. • 20-30 mile battery assisted range matches 70% of US daily commutes. • Mechanical connection to drivetrain is via 2 hub motors that replace hubcaps. • Business model scales to convert tens of thousands/year. • Creates green authorized installer jobs in communities everywhere.

  15. CalCars: a resource for a broad new campaign • Watch News-Archive & ICE-conversions Pages • Subscribe to CalCars-News • Print/distribute PDFs from Downloads Page • And thanks for all you’ve done—and will do! Donate!

  16. Get snapshots of issues & emerging companies Follow our White Paper on ICE Conversions including news, photos; links to pioneering companies calcars.org/ice-conversions.html Download eight-page White Paper with links to CalCars Tech Lead Ron Gremban’s spreadsheets and analyses calcars.org/scrap-or-retrofit.html Watch our 1:45-minute video calcars.org/audio-video.html

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