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Who Are Singularity Experts?

Who Are Singularity Experts?. Robin Hanson Associate Professor of Economics, GMU Chief Scientist, Consensus Point. Singularity Summit, New York City, 2009. What is a “Singularity Expert”?. “Singularity” = big future changes due to smart machines or enhanced humans

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Who Are Singularity Experts?

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  1. Who Are Singularity Experts? Robin Hanson Associate Professor of Economics, GMU Chief Scientist, Consensus Point Singularity Summit, New York City, 2009

  2. What is a “Singularity Expert”? • “Singularity” = big future changes due to smart machines or enhanced humans • “Expert” = a source widely recognized to judge well in a specific domain • Academics are top abstract experts, but mostly ignore this. Why? • “Silly” topics long ignored: sex, aliens, … • Tech luminaries talk most. Why?

  3. Singularity-Related Academic Areas Tech Bases • Artificial Intelligence • Robotics • Psych. of Intelligence • Brain Emulation • Brain Enhancement Ethics Innovation Process • Tech change • Econ growth • Research & Devel. Social Impacts • Sociology • Economics • Political Science

  4. Experts Types, Functions • E.g., computer fixer • E.g., accountant • Tech Luminaries • Newspapers • Wikipedia • Academics • Prediction Markets • Direct client service • Show off to others • Inspire audiences • Conversation starters • Canonical source • Gain Knowledge??? • Forecast, score edits

  5. Clues to Academia’s Function (1) advance knowledge, or (2) let folks affiliate with certified impressive people? • Journal referees prefer difficulty over insight • Clump on obscure topics, leave huge gaps • Stable institutions, anal formats, vocabulary • Students prefer researchers who ignore • Patrons seek affiliation with prestige, fuzzy on the actual work done • Reporters seeking quotes prefer prestige institution, flexible on area of expertise Advancing knowledge is academia side effect. Don’t expect it to be eager to adopt “efficient” method, or to study your “silly” question

  6. Prediction “Markets” = Collective Forecasts Via Scored Edits • Output: estimates of observed outcomes • Can be conditional on other outcomes • Input: incentive to induce informed edits • Inside: score & consensus functions • Not about amateurs vs. experts • Keys: incentives, self-selection, correct bias • Features: accurate, precise, consistent, rapid, • Very resistant to manipulation

  7. Pred. Markets Beat Competitors • Vs. Public Opinion • I.E.M. beat presidential election polls 709/964 (Berg et al ‘08) • Re NFL, beat ave., rank 7 vs. 39 of 1947 (Pennock et al ’04) • Vs. Public Experts • Racetrack odds beat weighed track experts (Figlewski ‘79) • If anything, track odds weigh experts too much! • OJ futures improve weather forecast (Roll ‘84) • Stocks beat Challenger panel (Maloney & Mulherin ‘03) • Gas demand markets beat experts (Spencer ‘04) • Econ stat markets beat experts 2/3 (Wolfers & Zitzewitz ‘04) • Vs. Private Experts • HP market beat official forecast 6/8 (Plott ‘00) • Eli Lily markets beat official 6/9 (Servan-Schreiber ’05) • Microsoft project markets beat managers (Proebsting ’05) • XPree beat corp error, 3.5 vs 6.6% • Best Buy: picks bluray, warn of delays in store open, geeksquad

  8. Singularity Prediction Markets? • Requires customer(s) who wants to know • Yes, less accurate on longer term • But all mechanisms less accurate on long term • PM accuracy advantage larger in long term • Yes, value of score may depend on state • Yes, can’t score extinction forecasts • But refuge markets can get close • Combinatorial markets are feasible • Given set of vars where eventually see values • Edit joint prob. dist. over all var value combos

  9. Singularity-Related Academic Areas Tech Bases Artificial Intelligence Robotics Psych. of Intelligence Brain Emulation Brain Enhancement Innovation Process Tech change Econ growth Research & Devel. Social Impacts Sociology Economics Political Science

  10. My Views On Singularity See “Economics of Singularity,” IEEE Spectrum 6/08 • Yes: General AI will come, make huge difference • Sorta sudden: vast changes within decade • Not soon: roughly 20 to 200 years away • Not trend: econ growth steady for 70 years • Not local: commercially developed, many competitors, integrated economy grows as unit, not basement suddenly takes over world • Not genocide: keep law to keep internal peace • Not hand-coded: probably brain emulation • Not horizon: we can see past, if fuzzier • Wages < human subsistence, faster econ growth rate

  11. Labor Economics of Machines • If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement) or less (substitute)? • Machine as Substitute to human labor • Predicts wages fall to machine cost • Ricardo 1821, most robot science fiction • Automation as Complement to human labor • Predicts wages rise as automation costs fall • Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus • Are future robots substitute or complement?

  12. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks Machines Substitute On Tasks, But Tasks Are Complements Tasks Are Complements Machines Do These Humans Do These Substitute For Task

  13. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

  14. Human Advantage Useful Mental Tasks A Rising Tide

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