How to make the World Aware that the Party is Over Kjell Aleklett Uppsala University Sweden International Workshop On Oil Depletion IWOOD2002 Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002 http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/
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Aware that the Party is Over
Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002 http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/
The ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas: http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/ASPO/ASPO-Stat-Rev.html
Statement by Matthew Simmons, energy adviser for President Bush: “We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.” (TV4, Sweden)
”The fall of
Plenty of food
Champagne, Champagne and Champagne
Easy to move energy
Abundance without limits
Methods to transform bound energy into something useful
The name of the game has been oil!
1 litre of oil contain 10 kWh
What can you do with 10 kWh?
You can move 10 small cars to the top of the Eiffel tower!
About 70% of all oil we have discovered can be found in 371 giant oilfields,
the giant elephants.
Production in the OPEC countries in the table is 6 Gb/year
Difference between the Uppsala model and BP
Saudi Arabia 194,4 (261.8) Gb
Iraq 95.0 (112,5) Gb
Iran 70,5 (89,7) Gb
Kuwait 55,4 (96,5) Gb
N. Zone 8,45
Abu Dubai 59,4 (97,8) Gb
Oman 6,74 (5,5) Gb
Qatar 5,73 (5,5) Gb
Yemen 1,36 (4,0) Gb
Syria 2,01 (2,8) Gb
Sum 499 (676.1) Gb
It looks as 177 Gb oil is missing
Oil & Gas J. 2001-12-31
231 production wells
Inflexion due to
OPEC “quota war”
"Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty. There are only so many more drinks to closing time. It’s the same with oil. We have to find the bar before we can drink what’s in it."
Average of 65 estimates is 1.93 Tb
USGS numbers for USA year 2025:
F95 = 345 Gb
Mean = 362 Gb
F5 = 383 Gb
Dvs mean +/- 5%
R/P is claiming that current reserves of 1000 Gb could support current production at 27 Gb/a for 37 years.
R/P is a poor indicator and should be ignored.
In closing, let me say that I believe industry has the resources to meet future global energy demand for some considerable time. I base this in part on my belief that technological advances will continue in exploration, development and production, just as they have in the past. This is the one major component in our success equation that we can control, and we must be relentless in its pursuit.
Such advances will be critical to meeting energy demand after 2010. I think it is well within the realm of possibility that many of our future discoveries will come not just from new frontier areas, but also from proven areas, as evolving technology improves our ability to virtually "see" and distinguish the oil and gas before we drill.
6 Gb + 3 Gb
1/99 - 10/02
I have some advice for my granddaughter
Emma, age two:
“Learn something about thermodynamics.
By the time you reach retirement age the
world production of oil, the kind that’s fun
to drill for, will be down to a fifth of its
present size. Get into renewable energy.”
If 100 gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of Champagne we have spent 9 bottles.
There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pore the content into four glasses each glass represent the global consumption per year.
From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They have just started to sip on the last glass.
If we have 11 bottles to empty and it takes 4 years to empty one everyone should be aware of the the party is over and that we need to do something!!!!
Aristoteles, 340 f.kr.“The Earth is round!”ASPO 2003, “We will have a peak and decline and we have to fight against the “flat earth” people”.