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Global warming l.jpg

Global Warming

Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

By Rich Deem

www.GodAndScience.org

Note: This slideshow is NOT meant to be printed. View in slideshow mode only because of extensive builds and animations. Go to the website for a printable copy.Requires PowerPoint 2003 or PowerPoint Viewer 2003.


Introduction l.jpg
Introduction

  • Is the world getting warmer?

  • If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases?

  • What can/should be done about these issues?

  • Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?


History of earth s climate l.jpg
History of Earth’s Climate

  • Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago

  • Originally very hot

  • Sun’s energy output only 70% of present

  • Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating)

  • Much of earth’s early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)


History of earth s climate4 l.jpg
History of Earth’s Climate

  • Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago

  • Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago

    • Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)

    • Earth went through periods of cooling (“Snowball Earth”) and warming

  • Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago


Earth s temperature l.jpg

Sun

Solar

Energy

Solar

Energy

Earth’s Temperature


Earth s temperature6 l.jpg

Sun

Solar

Energy

Radiative

Cooling

Earth’s Temperature


Earth s temperature7 l.jpg

Sun

Solar

Energy

Radiative

Cooling

Earth’s Temperature


Earth s temperature8 l.jpg

Sun

Solar

Energy

Radiative

Cooling

Earth’s Temperature


Greenhouse effect l.jpg

Sun

Greenhouse Effect


Earth s atmospheric gases l.jpg

Nitrogen (N2)

Oxygen (O2)

Argon (Ar)

Water (H2O)

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Earth’s Atmospheric Gases

Non-Greenhouse

Gases

>99%

Greenhouse

Gases

<1%


Runaway greenhouse effect l.jpg

Sun

Venus

Runaway Greenhouse Effect

  • 97% carbon dioxide

  • 3% nitrogen

  • Water & sulfuric acid clouds

  • Temperature:860°F



Carbon dioxide levels l.jpg
Carbon Dioxide Levels

Muana Loa Readings

CO2 Levels Since 1958

370

350

CO2 (ppm)

330

310

40

30

20

10

0

420

370

320

CO2 (ppm)

270

220

Dome Concordia

Vostok Ice Core

170

600000

400000

200000

0

Time (YBP)


Worldwide carbon emissions l.jpg
Worldwide Carbon Emissions

Total

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Gas fuel

8

7

6

5

Carbon (109 metric tons)

4

3

2

1

0

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Year


Annual carbon emissions l.jpg
Annual Carbon Emissions

Annual carbon emissions

Atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric CO2 average

8

6

Carbon (109 metric tons)

4

2

0

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

Year


Future carbon dioxide levels l.jpg
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels

  • Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries

  • Likely to double within 150 years:

    • Increased coal usage

    • Increased natural gas usage

    • Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)


Kyoto protocol l.jpg
Kyoto Protocol

  • Adopted in 1997

  • Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012

  • Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming



Recorded worldwide temperatures l.jpg
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures

Decreasing

Flat

Flat

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

D Mean Temperature (°C)

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Year


Historic los angeles temperatures l.jpg
Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

Annual Temperatures

Summer Temperatures

Winter Temperatures

25

17

22

21

24

16

20

23

15

19

22

14

Temperature (°C)

18

21

13

17

20

12

16

19

11

15

18

10

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Year

Year

Year


2009 temperature changes compared to 1951 1980 l.jpg
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1

-4

-2

-1

-.5

-.2

.2

.5

1

2

4

4.1

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980


Past temperatures measurement l.jpg
Past Temperatures Measurement

  • Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)

    • Tree rings

    • Ice cores

    • Pollen records

    • Plant macrofossils

    • Sr/Ca isotope data

    • Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)


Temperature history of the earth l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

  • Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler

  • Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C warmer than today

  • Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years

  • Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic

  • Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation 

  • Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic


Main ocean currents l.jpg
Main Ocean Currents

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2


Temperature history of the earth25 l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

  • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods

  • These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity


Orbital parameters precession l.jpg
Orbital Parameters: Precession

Perihelion

Apehelion


Orbital parameters obliquity l.jpg

22.5°

24.5°

Orbital Parameters: Obliquity


Orbital parameters eccentricity l.jpg

Apehelion

Apehelion

Perihelion

Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity

Maximum: 0.061

Minimum: 0.005

Not to scale!

To Scale!


Orbital parameters earth s climate l.jpg

Precession(22 ky)

Obliquity(41 ky)

Eccentricity(100 ky)

Temperature

Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Age (kya)


Temperature history of the earth30 l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

  • For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods

  • Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago


Younger dryas event l.jpg

YoungerDryas

Medieval Warm

Ice Age

Little Ice Age

Younger Dryas Event

-25

0.35

-30

0.30

-35

0.25

Snow Accumulation (m/yr)

-40

0.20

Temperature (°C)

-45

0.15

-50

0.10

-55

0.05

20

15

10

5

0

Age (kya)


Younger dryas event32 l.jpg
Younger Dryas Event

-34

-8.0

YoungerDryas

-35

-7.5

-36

-7.0

-37

-6.5

-38

-39

-6.0

d18O (Greenland)

d18O (China)

-40

-5.5

-41

-5.0

-42

-4.5

-43

-44

-4.0

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

Age (kya)


Temperature history of the earth33 l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)

  • Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.

    • 20°C higher at high latitudes

    • 1°C higher at the Equator

  • Sea levels were 100 ft higher

  • Causes

    • CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher

    • Increased thermohaline circulation


Temperature history of the earth34 l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

Eocene (41 million years ago)

  • Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica).

  • Increased ocean current exchange

    • Strong global cooling

    • First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago


Temperature history of the earth35 l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)

  • Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C

  • Causes

    • Increased volcanism

    • Rapid release of methane from the oceans


Temperature history of the earth36 l.jpg
Temperature History of the Earth

Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)

  • Much warmer

  • Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland

  • Causes

    • Different ocean currents (continental arrangement)

    • higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)


A compilation of phanerozoic atmospheric co 2 records l.jpg
A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records

6000

5000

4000

Atmospheric CO2

Concentration (ppmV)

3000

2000

1000

0

30

60

Continental Glaciation

(Paleolatitude)

90

S

D

Carb

P

Tr

J

K

Pg

Ng

Paleozoic

Mesozoic

Cenozoic

400

300

200

100

0

Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580



Hockey stick controversy l.jpg
“Hockey Stick” Controversy

0.6

Direct temperature measurements

Mann et al. 1999

0.4

0.2

0

Temperature Change (°C)

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Year


The problem with tree rings l.jpg
The Problem with Tree Rings

0.3

Jones et al. 1998

Briffa et al. 1999

Mann et al. 1999

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1

Temperature Change (°C)

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Year


What influences tree rings l.jpg
What Influences Tree Rings?

  • Temperature

  • Rainfall

  • Carbon dioxide concentration


Is the hockey stick correct l.jpg
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

2

Mann et al. 1999

Esper et al. 2002

1

0

Temperature Change (°C)

-1

-2

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Year


Is the hockey stick correct43 l.jpg

Medieval Warm Period

Mann et al. 1999

Esper et al. 2002

Moberg et al. 2005

Mann et al. 2008

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

Temperature Change (°C)

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.2

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Year


U s national academy of sciences june 2006 l.jpg

“2:1 chance of being right”

“high level of confidence”

U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Temperature Change (°C)

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Year


Atmospheric temperatures l.jpg
Atmospheric Temperatures

Troposphere

Stratosphere

0.8

1.5

0.6

1.0

0.4

0.5

0.2

Temperature Cgange (°C)

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

-0.6

-1.0

1980

1990

2000

1980

1990

2000

Year

Year


Co 2 concentration vs temperature l.jpg
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

370

320

31

30

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

CO2 (ppm) Antarctica

270

29

28

220

27

26

170

25

600000

400000

200000

0

Time (YBP)



Global warming primarily impacts the northern hemisphere l.jpg
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Northern vs. Southern Latitude

Land vs. Ocean

1.0

Land

Ocean

Northern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Temperature Change (°C)

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

1920

1960

2000

1920

1960

2000

Year

Year


2009 temperature changes compared to 1951 198049 l.jpg
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1

-4

-2

-1

-.5

-.2

.2

.5

1

2

4

4.1


Ice sheets melting l.jpg
Ice Sheets Melting?

  • GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)

  • Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)

    • confirmed Antarctica melting

    • Greenland ice melting onexterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)



Changes in antarctica ice mass l.jpg
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass

1000

800

600

400

200

Ice Mass (km3)

0

-200

-400

-600

2004

2003

2005

Year


Rise in sea levels l.jpg
Rise in Sea Levels?

  • Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)

  • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2

  • If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise

  • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic


Changing sea levels l.jpg

Global Temperature Change

Changing Sea Levels

20

10

0

Relative Sea Level (cm)

-10

Amsterdam, Netherlands

Brest, France

Swinoujscie, Poland

-20

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5


Sea levels for 450 000 years l.jpg
Sea Levels for 450,000 Years

31

20

0

30

-20

29

-40

Sea Level (m)

28

SST (°C) Tropical Pacific

-60

27

-80

26

-100

-120

25

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Time (KYBP)


Increase in hurricanes l.jpg

15

Data Unreliable

10

SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)

5

Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface Temperature

Adjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index

0

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

Increase in Hurricanes?

  • Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed

  • However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones)

  • Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy)

  • Difficult to know if this trend will continue


How much temperature increase l.jpg
How Much Temperature Increase?

  • Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century

  • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C

  • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C


Wildlife effects l.jpg
Wildlife Effects

  • Polar Bears

    • Require pack ice to live

    • Might eventually go extinct in the wild

  • Sea turtles

    • Breed on the same islands astheir birth

    • Could go extinct on some islandsas beaches are flooded

  • Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world


Effect on humans l.jpg
Effect on Humans

  • Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat

  • Decreased thermohaline circulation

    • Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic

  • CO2 fertilization effect

  • Precipitation changes

    • Droughts and famine (some areas)

    • Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union


Potential worldwide precipitation changes l.jpg

-50

-20

-10

-5

5

10

20

50

Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes


Drought in africa l.jpg
Drought in Africa

Lake Faguibine

Lake Chad


Cost to stabilize co 2 concentrations l.jpg
Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

800

600

400

200

0

450

550

650

750

Carbon Dioxide (ppm)



Mitigation of global warming l.jpg
Mitigation of Global Warming

  • Conservation

    • Reduce energy needs

    • Recycling

  • Alternate energy sources

    • Nuclear

    • Wind

    • Geothermal

    • Hydroelectric

    • Solar

    • Fusion?


Storage of co 2 in geological formations l.jpg
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations

  • Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

  • CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery

  • Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore

  • CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

4

1

3b

3a

2

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7



Global warming has stopped l.jpg
Global Warming Has Stopped?

1366.8

1366.6

1366.4

1366.2

1366.0

Solar Irradiance (W/m2)

1365.8

1365.6

1365.4

1365.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

D Mean Temperature (°C)

0.2

0.0

-0.2

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Year


Volcanoes put out more co 2 than fossil fuel burning l.jpg
Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning

Fossil Fuel

Volcanoes

10

8

6

Carbon (109 metric tons)

4

2

0


Global warming is caused by sunspots l.jpg
Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots

250

0.8

0.6

200

0.4

150

0.2

Sunspots

D Mean Temperature (°C)

0.0

100

-0.2

50

-0.4

0

-0.6

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Year


Hadley temperatures vs sunspots l.jpg
Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots

250

1.5

1.0

200

0.0

150

Sunspots

D Mean Temperature (°C)

-0.5

100

-1.0

50

-1.5

-2.0

0

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Year


Global warming is caused by gcr l.jpg
Global Warming is Caused by GCR

4600

4400

4200

4000

3800

Gamma Cosmic Rays

3600

3400

3200

3000

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

D Mean Temperature (°C)

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year


Co 2 vs temperature l.jpg

CO2 Vs. Sea Level

40

320

6

20

4

300

0

2

280

-20

0

260

CO2(ppmv)

-40

-2

Relative Sea Level

Temperature

240

-60

-4

220

-80

-6

200

-100

-8

-120

-10

180

CO2 Vs. Temperature

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

Time (ybp)

Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.


Global warming is due to urban heat islands l.jpg
Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands

-4.1

-4

-2

-1

-.5

-.2

.2

.5

1

2

4

4.1

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980



Global warming primarily impacts the northern hemisphere75 l.jpg

Land vs. Ocean Warming

Land

Ocean

1920

1960

2000

Year

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Northern vs. Southern Latitude

1.0

Northern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Temperature Change (°C)

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

1920

1960

2000

Year


Sea levels will rise 5 6 ft l.jpg
Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft? Warming

  • Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)

  • Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2

  • If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise

  • Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic

  • Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports


Changing sea levels77 l.jpg

Global Temperature Change Warming

Changing Sea Levels

20

10

0

Relative Sea Level (cm)

-10

Amsterdam, Netherlands

Brest, France

Swinoujscie, Poland

-20

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5


How much temperature increase78 l.jpg
How Much Temperature Increase? Warming

  • Global warming alarmists propose up to 9°C increase this century

  • Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C

  • Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C


Predictions vs reality l.jpg
Predictions Vs. Reality Warming

1.5

Annual Mean Global Temperature Change

1.0

DT (°C)

0.5

0

OBSERVED

SCENARIO A

SCENARIO B

SCENARIO C

-0.4

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2019

Date

Exponential Increase in carbon emissions

Moderate reduction in carbon emissions

Drastic reduction in carbon emissions

Observed temps through 1988

Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.


Temperature extrapolation l.jpg
Temperature Extrapolation Warming

2.5

2.0

1.5

DT (°C)

1.0

0.5

0

-0.4

1960

2040

2060

2080

2100

1980

2000

2020

Date


Conclusions l.jpg
Conclusions Warming

  • Global warming is happening

  • Most warming is probably the result of human activities

  • There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming

  • The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?


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