Slide1 l.jpg
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 28

The Economics of Sports Participation: Some Longitudinal Analysis. Paper presented to the GHS user group meeting 13 th March 2009 Paul Downward & PowerPoint PPT Presentation

  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

The Economics of Sports Participation: Some Longitudinal Analysis. Paper presented to the GHS user group meeting 13 th March 2009 Paul Downward & Joe Riordan. Background:. Promotion of physical activity is now central to public policy concerns

Download Presentation

The Economics of Sports Participation: Some Longitudinal Analysis. Paper presented to the GHS user group meeting 13 th March 2009 Paul Downward &

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript

Slide1 l.jpg

The Economics of Sports Participation: Some Longitudinal Analysis.

Paper presented to the GHS user group meeting 13th March 2009

Paul Downward


Joe Riordan

Background l.jpg


  • Promotion of physical activity is now central to public policy concerns

  • Relatively Little economic analysis and large-scale data testing

  • Builds upon Downward (2007); Downward and Riordan (2007) to analyse (and seek advice?)

    • Participation decisions

    • Social interactions

    • Over time

      THAT IS……………………………….

Why do we do this l.jpg

Why do we do this?

What has happened over time? Should we seek to promote this?

Overview l.jpg


  • Policy Context

  • Literature; Theoretical Predictions

  • Data Variables

  • Empirical Strategy

  • Results

  • Discussion

Policy context l.jpg

Policy Context

In the UK a ‘Twin track’ approach

Increase mass participation

Enhance international success


Game Plan 2002

Increase quantity and quality

of participation

Creating a talent identification

and development pathway

A first class successful

sporting nation

A fit, active population

Sport England Analysis of Determinants of Participation (2004)

Sport England Strategy 2008-11

Buildon school provision → work with NGBs → develop community sport → Excel, Sustain, Grow

Literature theory l.jpg


  • Heterodox:

    • Gratton and Tice (1991) explore the psychological foundations of consumer choice in sport and, in particular, learning by doing (Scitovsky, 1976; Earl, 1986, 1983).

    • Post Keynesian consumer analysis draws upon this concept and also insights from the studies of Leisure by Veblen (1925) and Galbraith (1958) and, by implication, Bourdieu (1984, 1988, 1991) that individual preferences are shaped by social values.

    • Prior experience in sports activities is likely to raise participation in any specific activity, and that social interactions, or lifestyles, will also affect participation.

      • Uncertainty, preferences evolve, social constraints

Literature theory7 l.jpg


  • Neoclassical

    • Income-Leisure Trade off of Labour Supply (Gratton and Taylor, 2000)

    • Becker (1965, 1974).

      • The latter paper is directly concerned with the accumulation of personal-consumption capital and social interactions in consumption.

Literature theory8 l.jpg


Marginal utility mediated through marginal productivity as

dUit = (δUit /δPit)(δPit /δxit)dxit + (δUit /δit)(δPit /δit)dit + (δUit /δPit)(δPit /δCit)dCit +

(δUit /δPit)(δPit /δSit)dSit

Literature theory9 l.jpg


Can integrate time cost explicitly in a simple way e.g. add wst and wct to r.h.s. so that

economic shadow price includes time (If ws ≠wc then an element of ‘depreciation’ so that per period allocations are different).

Literature theory10 l.jpg


In general this suggests that sports participation will be likely to vary directly with the acquisition of specific personal consumption and social capital, and also with the decline in any initial obstacles to participation through time (no reinvestment!).

Empirical work l.jpg

Empirical Work

Empirical work12 l.jpg

Empirical Work

Empirical work13 l.jpg

Empirical Work

Empirical work14 l.jpg

Empirical Work

*Studies used either Factor analysis of Cluster analysis to group activities.

**Study used cluster analysis to identify lifestyles

Empirical work15 l.jpg

Empirical Work

  • Time (Investment; preferences shifting)?

  • Social Interactions (groups of characteristics)?

Data variables l.jpg


The General Household Survey (GHS) was the data source for the research.

  • A continuous survey, which began in 1971, and is conducted by the Office for National Statistics. It collects data on a range of topics, by face-to-face interview, from private households in Great Britain. As well as core topics such as household and family characteristics, education, health, income and demographics, it also investigates other topics, such as Sport and Leisure, periodically.

  • Data from the 1980, 1986, 1990, 1996/7, 2002 are available.

    Some analysis done in Downward and Riordan (forthcoming, 2009)

  • But only 22 activities participated in or not over the last four weeks

  • Conformity?

    • Income a problem. Household and individual data, gross and net. A series of net income per week per individual identified by proportionate adjustment. This was deflated by the Retail Price Index for the year.

    • Some socio-economic; regional characteristics identifiable at more aggregate levels

    • Odd patterns of participation

1980 2002 l.jpg


1980 200218 l.jpg


Sample sizes?

1996 7 2002 l.jpg

1996/7 -2002

  • 40 Activities

  • Easier to match variables

Pooled data, not a panel, from 5 different years of GHS Survey

Empirical strategy l.jpg

Empirical Strategy

  • Cluster Analysis (Two-Step)

    • Personal Consumption capital; Social Characteristics

  • Regression analysis (Controlled for household selection; robust errors)

    • Individual factors, plus cluster membership variable.

    • Participation Decision

      • Ln(Pit/1-Pit) = β0 + ∑βjXjit + vit

    • Number of Sports

      • Numsportit = α0 + ∑αjXjt + uit

Adequate strategy?

Empirical strategy selection l.jpg

Empirical Strategy: Selection?

Tobit Model: But:

  • Lacks robust SE corrections, cluster sampling and weighting options

  • Numsport*it = α0 + ∑ α jXjit + uit

    if Numsportit* ≤ 0 Numsportit = 0

    if Numsportit* > 0 Numsportit = Numsportit*

    Heckman Model to distinguish decisions/correct for sample bias:

  • (H1) Numsport*it = α0 + ∑ α jXjit + uitNumsporti > 0 only if Pit =1.

  • (H2) Pit = β0 + ∑βjXjit + vitPit = 1 and 0 otherwise

    Whereu is N(0, σ)

    v is N(0, 1)

    Corr (u, v) = ρ

  • It could be the case that the choice set

  • comprises voluntary decisions to

  • participate on any number of independent

  • occasions which could include not at all

Descriptives 1 l.jpg

Descriptives (1)

Descriptives 2 decline l.jpg

Descriptives (2) Decline

Cluster analysis l.jpg

Cluster analysis

Logistic regression l.jpg

Logistic Regression

Regressions l.jpg


Interactions l.jpg


Discussion l.jpg


  • Some standard drivers of participation receive large-scale empirical support

    • Income

    • Human capital – education; employment

    • Health

    • Minor impact of family (aggregate measure?)

    • Evidence that social and consumption characteristics matter

    • Age (-); Sex (M>F)

  • Time?

    • Cohort variable suggests declining general interest in sport

    • Interaction effects suggest reducing impact of traditional constraints/choices except BAME when allow for lifestyles

      • Access to a given sport seems to be easing (policy?)

    • Combined effects are decline.

  • Login