Plan for Today: Thinking about Theory

1. Plan for Today:Thinking about Theory What is theory? Is theory possible in IR? Why is it important? How can we distinguish among theories?

2. What is theory? • Most people think of “a theory” as developed by “scientific method” • Observe and describe apparent pattern or phenomenon. • Formulate hypothesis to test on set of cases. • Test hypothesis by predicting what will happen in additional cases. • Revise hypothesis as necessary if proven wrong.

3. Inductive vs. deductive reasoning • Inductive: • Moving from specific empirical observations to general hypotheses. • Sometimes called “bottom-up” theorizing. • Deductive: • Moving from general hypotheses to testing them on specific observations. • Sometimes called “top-down” theorizing. • In reality, most theory development combines both processes.

4. “A Theory” • In sciences, a set of multiple hypotheses that have been widely tested and confirmed by evidence from test cases. • Typically includes explanatory logic for why phenomenon exists, how it operates in detail.

5. Positivism in social sciences • Scientific method at core. • There is a discoverable reality out there, which follows certain patterns. • Patterns can be discovered through rigorously designed scientific inquiry. • State testable and falsifiable hypotheses.

6. Can we create real theories of international relations? • People and societies are extremely complex. • Noam Chomsky’s doubts

7. Theory development in social sciences not like natural sciences. • Generally can’t conduct experiments. • Generally have to examine events after they have occurred. • Very difficult to “control” for variables you don’t want to examine.

8. There are different kinds of theory in IR • One type is explanatory theory -- the scientific sort just described. • Describes patterns and relationships among certain variables arranged in certain ways. • Variable: a measurable factor in a relationship among factors – it “varies.”

9. There are different kinds of theory in IR • Another type is critical theory –studies the very way we construct theories and what theoretical approaches cause us to see and not see. • Examines how theory is constitutive of reality.

10. There are different kinds of theory in IR • Related rise in popularity of postmodernist thought • There is no objective reality; all depends on perception. • Theoretical generalizations do violence to diversity of real life.

11. There are different kinds of theory in IR • In reality, we need both kinds of theory – constructing hypotheses and challenging their biases and distortions – in order to advance knowledge and understanding.

12. Why is it important to understand theory? • It’s impossible to make sense of the world without looking through some organizing structure or lens (Walt). • We all do it, whether consciously or not.

13. Why is it important to understand theory? • Often policy debates are actually disagreements over fundamental assumptions about the international system. (Walt) • E.g. National Missile Defense (NMD) plans in US. • E.g. Peacekeeping and foreign aid.

14. Ways to distinguish theories from one another: • Subject matter of concern (ONTOLOGY). • Who are the actors and what are the phenomena included? What exists in the world of this theory?

15. Ways to distinguish theories from one another: • Methodology. • Inductive or deductive? • Neorealists, neoliberals, classical Marxists tend to be more deductive; constructivists more historical and inductive.

16. Ways to distinguish theories from one another: • Methodology. • Level of analysis. • Waltz’s 3 possible levels of analysis: • MAN: human nature, individual leaders. • STATE: domestic politics, political culture. • SYSTEM: the nature of the international system itself.