Andrew coates tim price
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 26

Andrew Coates & Tim Price PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 45 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Railplan Modelling in Support of TfL London Rail’s HLOS2 Rail Strategy Development An AECOM Presentation International EMME User Conference, London, UK. Andrew Coates & Tim Price. 23 rd February 2010. Content of Presentation. Context of HLOS – What is it? Current HLOS Commission

Download Presentation

Andrew Coates & Tim Price

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Andrew coates tim price

RailplanModelling in Support of TfL London Rail’s HLOS2 Rail Strategy Development An AECOM Presentation International EMME User Conference, London, UK

Andrew Coates & Tim Price

23rd February 2010


Content of presentation

Content of Presentation

Context of HLOS – What is it?

Current HLOS Commission

Corridors Considered

Railplan Model Enhancement

Future Year Forecasting

Model Outputs

Business Case Development

Conclusions

23rd February 2010


Context of hlos what is it

Context of HLOS – What is it?

HLOS – High Level Output Statement

DfT’s statement of what it wants Network Rail to deliver in each 5 year Control Period

TfL feed into this process, to specify what it wants to see delivered in the London area

AECOM worked with TfL during 2005/6 on it’s ‘Vision 2025’ project, to specify schemes to be implemented during Control Period 4 (2009 to 2014)

Railplan Modelling and Business Case Development led to TfL’s input to DfT HLOS1

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Current hlos2 commission

Current HLOS2 Commission

DfT currently considering the specification for HLOS2, for schemes to be delivered in Control Period 5 (2014 to 2019)

Therefore TfL re-commissioned AECOM in early 2009 to start looking at rail schemes in and around London area

The work involved wider scope than HLOS1, covering not only Railplanmodelling and business case development, but also the rail engineering and operating costs, as well as timetable analysis

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Hlos2 corridors tested

HLOS2 – Corridors Tested

Thameslink (East Midlands)

Great Northern

West Anglia

West Coast

Essex Thameside

Great Western / Crossrail

London Overground

High Speed 1

South Western

South Eastern

South Central

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

Schemes were looked at for individual rail corridors as well as on a London-wide basis


Railplan model enhancement

Railplan Model Enhancement

  • TfL’s Public Transport Railplan Model used for demand forecasting and option testing

  • Railplan Version B5.4 as the starting point

  • Further model enhancements undertaken during the study:

    • Zonal and Matrix Disaggregation

    • Improved Network Coverage

    • Subsequent Base Year Model Revalidation

    • Updated Future Year Service Coding

    • Route Choice at Heathrow

    • Implementation of HS1 Premium Fares

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Railplan zonal disaggregation network improvement

Railplan Zonal Disaggregation & Network Improvement

Railplan zoning was disaggregated in the Cambridgeshire / Norfolk area to improve representation for West Anglia and Great Northern routes

Disaggregation also

took place in the South

West area for

South West / Great

Western area

Later in the study some

disaggregation took

place in Essex for C2C

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Railplan zonal disaggregation network improvement1

Railplan Zonal Disaggregation & Network Improvement

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

The red dots indicate where additional stations have been added


Railplan model revalidation

Railplan Model Revalidation

  • The revalidation focused principally on those areas where zones had been disaggregated

  • Attention was also given to London terminal arrivals, where significant improvements in validation compared to the existing Railplan B5.4

  • Validation for London arrivals undertaken in phases along with the railcorridors that were considered

  • Subsequent further re-validation undertaken before doing the London Wide tests

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Railplan model revalidation summary

Railplan Model Revalidation Summary

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Route choice at heathrow modification

Route Choice at Heathrow Modification

  • At Heathrow, Railplan B5.4 takes London Transport Airport Model (LTAM) demand

  • This demand is split by mode, with individual zones connected only to their respective mode nodes, so that the demand is ‘captive’ and not responsive to service change

  • This poses a problem when testing new schemes, such as those involving Airtrack or variant Crossrail services

  • Solution was to make service choice available at Heathrow, through

    • providing a ‘central’ access node at each of the Heathrow terminals

    • converting the premium fares paid on the relevant services into additional journey time

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Route choice at heathrow modification cont

Route Choice at Heathrow Modification (Cont.)

Central

access

node

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

Separate

access

nodes


Hs1 premium fares

HS1 Premium Fares

  • Treatment in the existing Railplan B5.4

    • Demand for High Speed 1 (HS1) services estimated outside of Railplan

    • Captive demand only linked to fixed origin zones

    • Again not responsive to service changes

  • Treatment in the Railplan Model for HLOS2

    • HS1 services and centroid connectors recoded

    • An additional time penalty included on HS1 services to represent the premium fare paid

    • HS1 demand no longer fixed but now able to respond to service changes in the South Eastern area

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Future year forecasting

Future Year Forecasting

  • Reference Cases were updated for each of the standard Railplan forecast years of 2016 and 2026

  • Forecasting year option testing involve two Railplan runs

    • Initial Railplan assignment was undertaken using the fixed Railplan future year demand matrix

    • Calculation of generated/suppressed trips as a result of the service changes between the two scenarios using an elasticity method

    • Second Railplan assignment was undertaken using the updated demand matrix

  • These results of these Railplan runs are fed into scheme impact assessment and business case model

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Overview of elasticity approach

Railplan Run 1 –

Ref Case Assignment

Railplan Run 2 – Test Scenario (pre-elasticity) Assignment

Test scenario Time matrix

Ref Case scenario Time matrix

Apply elasticity to calculate modal shift from car and newly generated trips

Railplan Run 3 – Test Scenario (post-elasticity assignment)

Calculation of revenue and economic benefits as part of business case development

Overview of Elasticity Approach

  • F – Factor to be applied to the number of trips for a particular demand zone pair

  • GJTnew– Generalised time in the Test scenario

  • GJTold– Generalised time in the Reference Case

  • G – Elasticity.

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Railplan model outputs

Railplan Model Outputs

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

  • Standard Railplan outputs (*.res, *.sta, *.tt etc)

  • Tabulation of Network Statistics

    • Change in total demand

    • Change in passenger boardings by service group and by station

    • Change in passenger-kms by service group

    • Change in passenger hours (crowded and un-crowded)

  • EMME and ENIF Plots

    • Change in seated and total capacity

    • Change in service frequency

    • Change in passenger volumes

    • Level of crowding (no. of pax standing per sqm of standing space)

    • Changes to population and employment accessibility

  • Further outputs as input to Business Case Calculation Tool


Example model outputs network statistics summary

Example Model Outputs – Network Statistics Summary

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Example model outputs passenger kilometres by mode and by service group

Example Model Outputs – Passenger Kilometres by Mode and by Service Group

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Example model outputs change in demand

Example Model Outputs – Change in Demand

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Example model outputs crowding

National Rail AM Peak Hour Standing Density (pax/sqm)

Seats available Busy: 1 to 2 pax/sqm Very Busy: 3 to 4 pax/sqm

Some Standing 0 to 1 pax/sqm Crowded 2 to 3 pax/sqm Maximal: 4+ pax/sqm

Example Model Outputs - Crowding

Before the implementation of the scheme

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Example model outputs crowding1

National Rail AM Peak Hour Standing Density (pax/sqm)

Seats available Busy: 1 to 2 pax/sqm Very Busy: 3 to 4 pax/sqm

Some Standing 0 to 1 pax/sqm Crowded 2 to 3 pax/sqm Maximal: 4+ pax/sqm

Example Model Outputs - Crowding

After the implementation of the scheme

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Example model outputs pop and emp accessibility

Example Model Outputs – Pop and Emp Accessibility

  • No. of jobs within 45 mins of residence

  • Population within 45 mins of employment opportunity

  • Changes in the average no of jobs within 45 minutes of residence

  • Changes in population within 45 mins of employment opportunity

Test versus Reference Case

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Business case development

Business Case Development

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development

  • A business case calculation tool was developed in spreadsheet

  • Quantifiable benefits/disbenefits include

    • Revenue Impact

    • User Time Savings (Based on Rule-of-half principle)

    • Accidents

    • Highway Decongestion Benefits

    • Noise

    • Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    • Local Air Quality Costs

    • Indirect Taxation

    • Dwell Time Savings

    • Bus Operating Costs

  • Present values of costs and benefits as well as the BC ratios can then be calculated


Business case development1

Business Case Development

  • The Business Case calculation takes Railplan model outputs for both ‘with’ and ‘without’ elasticity method applied, as the input data

  • Business Case assumptions, parameters and procedure are compliant to WebTAG guidance

  • The business case results, combined with network demand and capacity analysis, formed the basis for option selection

  • The preferred schemes were taken forward to a ‘London Wide’ Railplan scenario, and the overall Benefit Cost ratio calculated

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • AECOM was commissioned by TfL LR in support of its development of HLOS2 rail enhancement strategy

  • Modelling work used TfL’sRailplan B5.4 model as the starting point, with a number of modelling issues identified early in the study

  • Further improvements to Railplan were undertaken resulting in a re-validated Base Year model and updated future year reference cases

  • The improved model was then successfully used for assessing impact of service changes to public transport demand and passenger routing choice

  • A set of Railplan model outputs were generated to assist in option selection and scheme assessment

  • Business cases were developed for schemes of individual corridors as well as at a London wide level

Railplan Modelling - HLOS2 Strategy Development


Thank you any questions

Thank YouAny Questions?

23rd February 2010


  • Login