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Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities . Ulka Kelkar Associate Fellow TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India. Who is more vulnerable?. ECHAM4. HadCM2.

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climate change v a research at teri methods experiences and future possibilities

Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities

Ulka Kelkar

Associate Fellow

TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India

slide2

Who is more vulnerable?

ECHAM4

HadCM2

Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s

CGCM1

presentation context and outline
Presentation context and outline
  • Identifying vulnerability
    • Who and what are vulnerable to the projected impacts? How vulnerable?
  • Understanding vulnerability
    • What factors cause, amplify or dampen vulnerability?
  • Addressing vulnerability
    • How can appropriate adaptation efforts / policies be developed?
retreat of the gangotri glacier
Retreat of the Gangotri glacier

Source: Earth Observatory, NASA

vulnerability index for indian coastline
Vulnerability index for Indian coastline
  • share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district (based on JNU 1993)
  • share of population affected in total population of district
  • district level index of relative development (CMIE 2000)
  • district level index of relative infrastructure development (CMIE 2000)
indian agriculture adaptive capacity
Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability

  • Soil degradation and cover
  • Groundwater availability

Social vulnerability

  • Agricultural workers and labourers
  • Literacy
  • Gender discrimination
  • Child mortality and fertility

Technological vulnerability

  • Irrigation
  • Infrastructure
elements of vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity

  • Biophysical vulnerability
  • Soil degradation and cover
  • Groundwater availability
  • Social vulnerability
  • Agricultural workers and labourers
  • Literacy
  • Gender discrimination
  • Child mortality and fertility
  • Technological vulnerability
  • Irrigation
  • Infrastructure

Climate

change

vulnerability

Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)

Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)

Globalization

vulnerability

Elements of vulnerability profiles
vulnerability profiles
Vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity

Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity

slide20

Jagatsingpur, Orissa

  • cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves)
  • high population density
  • acute poverty
  • proximity to port
  • Jhalawar, Rajasthan
  • drought prone
  • low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure
  • Chitradurga, Karnataka
  • water scarcity
  • proximity to city
  • contract farming and exports
  • Raipur, Chattisgarh
  • rice belt of central India
  • crop diversification
  • low literacy, infrastructure
  • Anantapur,
  • Andhra Pradesh
  • semi-arid
  • response of groundnut farmers to import competition
slide22
Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming only

Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks

Landless labourers – seasonal migration

Small/marginal farmers – temporary coping measures

No long-term adaptive solutions

Anghora: head-end of dam

Access to irrigation opens up range of coping options

Much better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)

Mixed farming of oranges and soybean

A tale of two villages

100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

0%

0%

Insurance

Sell cattle

Credit/ loan

Use of DRVs

Sell cattle

Insurance

Credit/ loan

Use of DRVs

Seasonal migration

Use available stocks

Shift in cropping pattern

Seasonal migration

Labour (govt or private)

Less water-intensive crop

Use available stocks

Less water-intensive crop

Shift in cropping pattern

Labour (govt or private

Small (1-2 ha)

Semi-medium (2-4 ha)

Marginal (<1 ha)

Landless

education mechanisation and cropping pattern
Timannahalli

Mahadevpura

60

16

14

50

12

5

40

10

30

8

41

3

6

20

9

4

6

10

2

9

1

3

0

0

farmers educated

farmers educated

farmers educated

farmers educated

above Xth

below Xth

above Xth

below Xth

standard

standard

standard

standard

mechanised

non-mechanised

Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern

fruits and plantation

crops

coconut

maize

ragi

4%

6%

2%

groundnut

11%

arecanut

4%

2%

34%

jowar

gram

5%

groundnut

48%

paddy

9%

sericulture

10%

ragi

sunflower

10%

sunflower

11%

jowar

paddy

onion

13%

4%

10%

17%

incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking some examples
Incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking: some examples
  • Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers
    • Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs
  • Cross-sectoral dialogue
    • Tail-end villages in command area
  • Agri-based industries and markets
    • Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills
  • Support for traditional options
    • Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in homestead
  • Development is the best form of adaptation
    • Education, health facilities, electricity, roads
developing adaptation efforts
Developing adaptation efforts
  • Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability
  • Climate change does not occur in isolation – multiple stresses
  • Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change
  • Adapting to climate variability and climate change
  • Adaptation and sustainable development policies
future research directions
Future research directions
  • Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach
    • Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events
    • Application to other sectors / specific regions
    • Econometric modelling of determinants of vulnerability
  • Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues)
  • Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options
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