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Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities . Ulka Kelkar Associate Fellow TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India. Who is more vulnerable?. ECHAM4. HadCM2.

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Climate change v a research at teri methods experiences and future possibilities l.jpg

Climate change V&A research at TERI: methods, experiences, and future possibilities

Ulka Kelkar

Associate Fellow

TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India


Slide2 l.jpg

Who is more vulnerable?

ECHAM4

HadCM2

Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s

CGCM1


Presentation context and outline l.jpg

Presentation context and outline

  • Identifying vulnerability

    • Who and what are vulnerable to the projected impacts? How vulnerable?

  • Understanding vulnerability

    • What factors cause, amplify or dampen vulnerability?

  • Addressing vulnerability

    • How can appropriate adaptation efforts / policies be developed?


Identifying vulnerability observation l.jpg

Identifying vulnerability:Observation


Retreat of the gangotri glacier l.jpg

Retreat of the Gangotri glacier

Source: Earth Observatory, NASA


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Invasion of chir into oak in Uttarkashi


Identifying vulnerability modelling l.jpg

Identifying vulnerability:Modelling


Impact of climate change on water and agriculture case study in uttaranchal l.jpg

Impact of climate change on water and agriculture: case study in Uttaranchal


Identifying vulnerability indices and mapping l.jpg

Identifying vulnerability:Indices and mapping


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Vulnerability index for Indian coastline

  • share of land area affected by 1-m SLR in total area of district (based on JNU 1993)

  • share of population affected in total population of district

  • district level index of relative development (CMIE 2000)

  • district level index of relative infrastructure development (CMIE 2000)


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Indian agriculture: adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability

  • Soil degradation and cover

  • Groundwater availability

    Social vulnerability

  • Agricultural workers and labourers

  • Literacy

  • Gender discrimination

  • Child mortality and fertility

    Technological vulnerability

  • Irrigation

  • Infrastructure


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Observed (1961-90)

HadRM2 (2 x CO2)

Climate sensitivity index


Identifying vulnerability double exposure l.jpg

Identifying vulnerability:‘Double exposure’


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  • Adaptive capacity

  • Biophysical vulnerability

  • Soil degradation and cover

  • Groundwater availability

  • Social vulnerability

  • Agricultural workers and labourers

  • Literacy

  • Gender discrimination

  • Child mortality and fertility

  • Technological vulnerability

  • Irrigation

  • Infrastructure

Climate

change

vulnerability

Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)

Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)

Globalization

vulnerability

Elements of vulnerability profiles


Vulnerability profiles l.jpg

Vulnerability profiles

Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity

Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity


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Cyclones map


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  • Jagatsingpur, Orissa

  • cyclones, river floods (loss of mangroves)

  • high population density

  • acute poverty

  • proximity to port

  • Jhalawar, Rajasthan

  • drought prone

  • low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure

  • Chitradurga, Karnataka

  • water scarcity

  • proximity to city

  • contract farming and exports

  • Raipur, Chattisgarh

  • rice belt of central India

  • crop diversification

  • low literacy, infrastructure

  • Anantapur,

  • Andhra Pradesh

  • semi-arid

  • response of groundnut farmers to import competition


Understanding vulnerability local and community focus l.jpg

Understanding vulnerability:Local and community focus


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Lakhakheri Umat: rainfed farming only

Semi/medium farmers – sale of stocks

Landless labourers – seasonal migration

Small/marginal farmers – temporary coping measures

No long-term adaptive solutions

Anghora: head-end of dam

Access to irrigation opens up range of coping options

Much better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)

Mixed farming of oranges and soybean

A tale of two villages

100%

100%

80%

80%

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

0%

0%

Insurance

Sell cattle

Credit/ loan

Use of DRVs

Sell cattle

Insurance

Credit/ loan

Use of DRVs

Seasonal migration

Use available stocks

Shift in cropping pattern

Seasonal migration

Labour (govt or private)

Less water-intensive crop

Use available stocks

Less water-intensive crop

Shift in cropping pattern

Labour (govt or private

Small (1-2 ha)

Semi-medium (2-4 ha)

Marginal (<1 ha)

Landless


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Timannahalli

Mahadevpura

60

16

14

50

12

5

40

10

30

8

41

3

6

20

9

4

6

10

2

9

1

3

0

0

farmers educated

farmers educated

farmers educated

farmers educated

above Xth

below Xth

above Xth

below Xth

standard

standard

standard

standard

mechanised

non-mechanised

Education, mechanisation, and cropping pattern

fruits and plantation

crops

coconut

maize

ragi

4%

6%

2%

groundnut

11%

arecanut

4%

2%

34%

jowar

gram

5%

groundnut

48%

paddy

9%

sericulture

10%

ragi

sunflower

10%

sunflower

11%

jowar

paddy

onion

13%

4%

10%

17%


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Addressing vulnerability


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Incorporating adaptation thinking in policymaking: some examples

  • Incentives for making existing schemes available to small/marginal farmers

    • Credit, insurance, subsidies, HYVs

  • Cross-sectoral dialogue

    • Tail-end villages in command area

  • Agri-based industries and markets

    • Rice mills, purchase ceilings, Nagari-dhuvraj, jute mills

  • Support for traditional options

    • Teevra crop on residual soil moisture, fruits and vegetables in homestead

  • Development is the best form of adaptation

    • Education, health facilities, electricity, roads


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Developing adaptation efforts

  • Effective adaptation strategies require understanding of regional / local dimensions of vulnerability

  • Climate change does not occur in isolation – multiple stresses

  • Domestic policies can enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change

  • Adapting to climate variability and climate change

  • Adaptation and sustainable development policies


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Future research directions

  • Further exploration of multi-tiered research approach

    • Multiple climate scenarios, extreme events

    • Application to other sectors / specific regions

    • Econometric modelling of determinants of vulnerability

  • Focus on policy aspects at level of state departments (including cross-sectoral issues)

  • Capacity building and demonstration of adaptation options


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Project supported by

www.teriin.org


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