Belgian global change research 1990-2002. Climate change. Pr. J.P. van Ypersele, Université catholique de Louvain With support from: Ph. Van Haver, S. Van Homwegen, E. Vanvyve, V. Coulon, and Ph. Marbaix. Questions 1-5. How is the earth’s climate changing now?
Pr. J.P. van Ypersele,
Université catholique de LouvainWith support from: Ph. Van Haver,
S. Van Homwegen, E. Vanvyve, V. Coulon,
and Ph. Marbaix
12 years of researches can not be summarized in 10 minutes, only limited snapshots will be shown.
Annually-averaged surface air temperature at Brussels-Uccle, 1833 > 2002 (IRM) (fig 2.5, p67)
2000How is the climate changing now ? (2)
Sea-ice thickness decreases as well:
In the Arctic Ocean, the sea-ice surface is decreasing at an average rate of 25.000 km2 / year (nearly the surface of Belgium)
(fig 2.10, p70)(Source: ULB-GLACIOL)
Tropical regions :
Rising temperatures at
Links with ENSO (El Niño), lake productivity studied by ENSO and CLIMLAKE teams (RUG, MRAC, UCL, FUNDP, ULg).
(fig 2.12, p71)
Climate of the last millennium :
. climate reconstructions (dark and light blue)
. global 3D atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean model (grey; red=mean) (UCL-ASTR) (fig 2.17, p73)
Model simulation over the last glacial cycle (VUB)
ice-covered area :
at the last glacial maximum,
time evolution (last 120 000 Y, change connected with earth orbit)
Model results for the retreat of the Sofiyskiy Glacier (Altai Mountains, South Siberia), which may completely disappear (VUB-DG)
with T and precip from model 1 (CGCM1)
with T and precip from model 2 (ECHAM4)
Total basin discharge (mm/month)
0How will climate change during the 21st century ?
3 hydrological models / Gete basin(IRM, KULeuven, FUSAGx, ULg)
(fig 2.35, p91)
(fig 2.28, p82)