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Solar

Solar. Industry Overview Major technologies (3-4) Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability (3) Solar Value Chain (1) Installations – residential and commercial (1-2) Future System building and building integration (2-3) Industry Funding (3-5) -- follow the money!

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Solar

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  1. Solar • Industry Overview • Major technologies (3-4) • Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability (3) • Solar Value Chain (1) • Installations – residential and commercial (1-2) • Future System building and building integration (2-3) • Industry Funding (3-5) -- follow the money! • Competitive landscape • Industry Growth • Careers • Business Opportunities • Key players • Career paths (sample job description) • Salaries • Training Opportunities / Education seminars • What you might need

  2. Alternative Energy Industry Overview

  3. Solar PV Technologies

  4. Solar Efficiency

  5. Technological Comparison

  6. Solar Cell Construct-Silicon Based Monocrystalline Si Cell Amorphous Si Cell Amorphous Si & Microcrystalline Cell

  7. Silicon Solar Cell Manufacturing Flow

  8. Thin Film Cell Construct • Cadmium Telluride/Cadmium Sulfide Cell • Copper Indium Selenide • Copper Indium Gallium Selenide

  9. Process Step Technology Used TCO Deposition, Front and Scribing Sputtering and Laser Substrate Substrate Substrate Substrate Substrate Substrate Active layer Co-evaporation or Sputtering or Ink Jet Printing or Electro deposition Active Layer Deposition Sulfurization Annealing & Sulfurization or RTA Activation CdS layer Chemical Bath or PVD (Phys Vapor Dep) CdS Deposition Scribing and TCO Deposition, Back Mechanical and Sputtering Interconnect Interconnect and Encapsulation Lamination Thin Film Solar Cell Manufacturing Process Resulting Structure TCO contact

  10. Selected Thin Film Landscape TF Silicon CdTe CIS Conversion efficiency 6-8% 8-11% <8-13% Variants a-Si CdTe Cu/In/S a-Si/a-Si Cu/In/Se a-Si/uc-Si Cu/In/Ga/Se a/Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe Selected manufacturers Unisolar (US) First Solar (USA) Daishowa Shell (Japan) Kaneka (Japan) Avancis (Germany) Mitsubishi (Japan) Wuerth (Germany) Sharp (Japan) Sulfurcell (Germany) Schott (Germany) Miasole (USA) Sanyo (Japan) Global Solar (USA) Sionar (Taiwan) Nanosolar (USA) Evergreen Solar/ESLR (US) Solyndra (USA) HelioSphera (Greece) Flexcell (Switzweland) CSG Solar (Germany) Process PE-CVD Vapor transport Various

  11. Thin Film PV Companies in US CdTe First Solar –OH Primestar Solar –CO AVA Solar –CO Solar Fields –OH Canrom –NY Ascentool –CA Nuvo Solar Energy –CO Zia Watt Solar –TX Solexant –CA Xunlight 26 Solar –OH Sunovia –FL NewCve –GA Bloo Solar –CA CIGS Global Solar –AZ Miasole –CA Energy PV –NJ Ascent Solar –CO ISET –CA ITN/ES –CO Daystar –NY Nanosolar –CA Heliovolt –TX Solo Power –CA Solyndra –CA RESI –NJ Light Solar –NV Ampulse –TN Dow Chemicals –MI Stion –CA a-Si/Thin-Si Uni-Solar –MI Applied Materials –CA Power Films –IA Energy PV –NJ MV Systems –CO XsunX –CA OptiSolar –CA Signet Solar –CA Nano PV –NJ MWOE Solar –OH Proto Flex –CO New Solar Ventures –NM Innovalight –CA Nanogram –CA Soltaix –CA Sierra Solar Power –CA Evergreen Solar/ESLR –MA Sencera –NC AOS Solar Ampulse

  12. Wafer Based PV Value Chain • Poly-Si Feedstock 10% • Ingot/Wafer Production 10% • Cell Production 25% • Module Assembly 25% • System Integration, Distribution and Installation 30% Thin Film Based PV Value Chain • Glass Production 20% • Cell Production (CdTe, CIS) 20% • Module Assembly 25% • System Integration, Distribution and Installation 35%

  13. Major Polysilicon Manufacturers • Wacker -Germany • Hemlock –USA • LDK - China • Dow Corning - USA • MEMC -USA • REC Silicon -Norway • Tokuyama -Japan • Mitsubishi Materials -Japan • Sumitomo Titanium -Japan

  14. Si Wafer Start Up • 1366 Technologies -MA • 21-Century Silicon - TX • 6N Silicon - ON • Advent Solar • AE Polysilicon • Blue Square Energy - MD • CaliSolar - CA • Confluence Solar - MO • ET Solar • Gamma Solar • NorSun • Peak Sun Silicon -OR • RSI Silicon - PA • SBM Solar - CA • Senergen Devices - CA • Silicon Genesis - CA • Solar Notion • Solaicx - CA • Solar Cell Repower - Norway • SpectraWatt - OR • Wriota

  15. Worldwide Solar Module Demand Worldwide solar module demand (MW) • Crystalline solar is projected to remain over 80% of the market for the foreseeable future • Long-term reliability & track record • Current polysilicon prices are adding significantly to production costs • Innovation and supply will bring the price of polysilicon down • Currently $1.161 per watt on average • Long-term $0.512 per watt • We believe the reduction of over 2x makes crystalline price competitive and expands the market • The key factor dictating success in this market is COSTLOW COST WINS 15,372 13,587 10,828 CAGR: 43.7% 7,467 4,044 2,824 1,747 Source: Wall Street research 1 Based on 2008 estimated cost of polysilicon of $110/kg and 10.5 grams/watt 2 Based on 2012 estimated cost of polysilicon of $60/kg and 8.5 grams/watt 16

  16. Top 10 PV Companies (2007-2008) No. Name Technology Country Production (MW) 1 Q-Cells Si Germany 389 2 Sharp Si Japan 363 3 Suntech Si China 327 4 Kyocera Si Japan 207 5 First Solar CdTe USA 207 6 Motech Si Taiwan 196 7 Sanyo Si Japan 165 8 SunPower Si USA 150 9 Baoding Si China 143 10 SolarWorld Si Germany 140

  17. Where are we going with the technology? Highway signs

  18. The Race to $1/ Watt-Grid Parity

  19. Cell Technology Market Share

  20. Case Study • Residential Solar installation • 2000 square foot house • 3.5 KW system

  21. Residential Solar System (Pros) • Reduce cost of electrical power • Opportunity in remodeling, upgrade home value • Doing “my thing” in improving environment EXAMPLE: 2000 sq ft home: approximately 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year • Lower energy cost for the future, especially in retirement • Tax incentives, putting tax money to good use • Possible leasing versus purchasing

  22. Residential Solar System (Cons) • Mobile society, not stay around long enough to reap the benefits • Initial outlay of investment, SLOW ROI, 7 to 8 years to break even point • Installation, disruption, possible additional structural needs • Solar panel failure, inverter failure • Having to periodically clean PV panels, breakage and hazard • Other problems, roof leaks, wind damage, etc. • Opportunity cost: • Bathroom remodel plus new heater and insulation (instant ROI if sell home and WITH energy savings • Add a bedroom plus bathroom (226 sq. ft. at $160 per) AND rent it out for $600/month net: break even ROI: 5 years. • NEW TECHNOLOGIES: reduced cost of system, longer life, better output, balance DC to AC inverter integrated systems

  23. Choosing a Contractor • If need a new roof: roofer/solar contractor may have an advantage as it is VERY CLEAR who is responsible if there are roof leaks. • Get 4 quotes, make sure you are looking at the latest offerings • ISSUES: Poor quality invertors, contractor may not install what they said they would install, undersized DC cables, and may have extra costs to connect to home AC panel/grid thus your ROI is less. • Make sure quotes use same AC rate increase plan 5% to 9% seen in quotes, in this economy will the rate increase slow down? • ReGrid Power, NextEnergy, PetersonDeanRoofing, too many to list

  24. Considerations for Purchasing a System • System size • Installation location • Warranty • Initial cost, payment outlay • Maintenance Costs • Independent system or connected to grid • PPA: if you sell your home, can you afford to get out of the agreement? • Investment alternatives:

  25. What is real system performance? • What is advertised performance? • How is performance defined? • How is performance measured? • Solar profile of installation site • Weather, dirt • Shadowing, daily profile • Electrical cable lengths • Efficiency versus temperature • Inverter

  26. Calculation of ROI, Parameters • Demographics of Usage • Peak power requirements-Are they to be satisfied? • Average power usage • Cost of system • Tax incentives • Actual cost of system • System operational parameters • Efficiency • Degradation • Power generation • Power cost • Electrical bill per today’s pricing, • Future inflation, • Future usage increase, decrease • System generated power cost in long term • Savings • Years to crossover point

  27. Considerations for Long Term Operation • System performance degradation • Solar panel efficiency • Weathering, dirt • Sunlight availability, shadowing, • Cost of grid available power, inflation • New technology, upgrading of system • Balancing of modules

  28. How will new technology affect ROI? • Implementation on current system • Power generation balancing • Anti-weathering coatings • Sunlight reflection onto panels • Solar tracking • Electrical power storage • Addition of storage capability

  29. Comparative Sample Calculation • Demographics • Home with 2000 square feet • Partitioned into living quarters for one family And 2 separate master bedrooms for single occupants • No air conditioning • Composite roof • Facing south west, plenty of sunlight, no shading • Plenty of roof space for solar panels • Comparing Sharp, First Solar, BP Solar and Sunpower PV panel based installations • Simple calc, only used the expected AC savings, expected AC cost increases (at 2% and 5% per year rate assumptions), panel degradation and net of tax rebate costs used. • NOTE: Assumes CLEAN dust free sap free panels • CAUTION: Sales person my use 9% AC cost increases per year other inflation rate items and not take into account panel output degradation to show 2 or 3X the savings. • GOOD NEWS: up to 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year • These solar systems have 7 to 8 year to reach break even point and $28K to $45K savings in 18 years (18 years is PPA life and may be the “half life” for the Silcon based panels.)

  30. Comparative ROI Calculation

  31. What you might need Licenses Certifications Engineering Installation

  32. Web Survey of “Best” Commercial PV Modules (2007-2008) Eff. (%) Module T.coef (%P/°C) Technology c/c-ratio 19.3 SunPower 315 -0.38 FZ-Si, ‘point contact’ 78% 17.4 Sanyo HIP-205BAE -0.30 CZ-Si, ‘HIT’ 70% 15.1 BP7190 -0.5 CZ-Si, ‘PERL’ 61% 14.2 Kyocera KC200GT Only for VOC MC-Si 67% 14.2 SolarWorld SW 185 Only for VOC CZ-Si 67% 13.4 SolarWorld SW 225 Only for VOC MC-Si 64% 13.4 Suntech STP 260S -24V/b MC-Si 63% 13.3 Sharp ND-216-U1 Not given MC-Si 63% 11.0 WürthSol. 11007/80 -0.36 CIGS 55% 10.4 First Solar FS-275 -0.25 CdTe 63% 8.5 Sharp NA-901-WP -0.24%/C a-Si/nc-Si 70% 6.3 Mitsubishi H. MA100 T2 -0.2 a-Si (1-j) 64% 6.3 Uni Solar PVL-136 (-0.21) a-Si (3-j) 52% 6.3 Kaneka T-SC Not given a-Si (1-j) 64%

  33. Examples of Thin Film Cells Q-Cell Q-Cell Q-Cell Q-Cell Q-Cell

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