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Disaster Risks in Central Asia

Disaster Risks in Central Asia. Michael Thurman Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS "Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011. Contents. Geophysical, Meteorological, and Compound Hazards Impacts

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Disaster Risks in Central Asia

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  1. Disaster Risks in Central Asia Michael Thurman Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, ECIS "Improving Regional Coordination in Managing Compound Risks in Central Asia“ 14-15 April 2011

  2. Contents • Geophysical, Meteorological, and Compound Hazards • Impacts • Economic, Structural, and Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities

  3. Geophysical Hazards • All major cities are highly exposed and contain a high concentration of population and economic activity. • Secondary effects include landslides, mudflows, and GLOFs. Not enough is known concerning the triggering effect. • Landslides triggered by geological, seismic, and meteorological processes • Landslides will become more frequent and intensify with climate change. • Transboundary hazards in Ferghana Valley and northern Tien Shan.

  4. Meteorological Hazards: Floods • Most frequently occurring type of hazard • 1991-2007: high water years more frequent by 1.2-1.4 times, extremely high water by 2.0-2.5 times. • Exposure to floods often due to lack of transboundary cooperation. • GLOFs are a growing concern, due to glacier melt. • Climate change will amplify exposure to all types of flood hazard. • Ferghana Valley and upper Amu Darya basin highly exposed to transboundary mudflow and GLOF hazards.

  5. Meteorological Hazards: Drought • Localized meteorological drought occurs frequently • Widespread drought with severe impacts every 5-10 years • Hydrological drought results from improper management at basin, national, and local level • Climate change will make precipitation more sporadic and increase evaporation and ET

  6. Compound Hazards • Hydrological drought and extreme cold: • “Compound crisis” of 2007-08: natural and man-made factors contributed to exposure • Climate change expected to result in warmer winters, but hydrological drought more severe • Technogenic hazards: Mayli Suu and other toxic waste particularly a concern in the Ferghana Valley

  7. Disaster Impacts • Fatalities and economic losses (% GDP) highest in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. • Earthquakes account for most fatalities, followed by floods and landslides • Droughts affect the largest number of people • Economic losses highest for earthquakes, then floods, drought, and landslides • Earthquake impacts most apparent in urban areas: housing, transportation, utility infrastructure; indirect economic impacts. • Landslides and meteorological hazards have greatest impact on rural areas: housing and basic services, agriculture, drinking water, food security.

  8. Economic Vulnerability • Lack of adequate data, due to collection and analysis procedures for global and national datasets. • Potential for losses as % of GDP highest for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. • Absolute amount of potential losses for other countries are higher. • Vulnerable to meteorological hazards: weather-dependent sectors account for 40-60% of GDP.

  9. Structural Vulnerability • Intense earthquake in a major city in Central Asia would collapse or severely damage around half of the residential building stock. • Water infrastructure deteriorated and vulnerable to flood hazards • Outdated building codes and lax enforcement attenuate structural vulnerability

  10. Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities • Poverty, income disparities, and social status significantly lower resilience. • Poor municipal and land use planning place populations, infrastructure, and livelihoods in the way of hazards. • Unsustainable operations and maintenance of infrastructure, especially for water, increases both exposure and vulnerability. • Agriculture requires strengthening to lower vulnerability to drought and floods. • Environmental degradation contributes to exposure and vulnerability.

  11. Conclusions • Vulnerabilities are mainly the result of flawed development. • Many disaster risks require transboundary solutions: • Monitoring, risk assessment, early warning, • Addressing vulnerabilities in water • (Potentially) preparedness and response • In order to address vulnerabilities and mitigate/prevent disasters, need to improve understanding of risks. Most urgent needs are in the following areas: • Monitoring networks, especially for meteorological hazards • Projections of hazard exposure and impacts related to climate change • Vulnerability analysis and capacity assessment • Data collection, management, and mapping tools • Digitization of data

  12. THANK YOU!

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