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Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston Region Using ADCIRC

Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston Region Using ADCIRC. Clint Dawson and Jennifer Proft Casey Dietrich, Nishant Panda, Adnan Muhammad Antonia Sebastian, Phil Bedient SSPEED meeting Feb 14 2013. Hurricane Ike Scenarios. Original landfall Ike Shifted Ike

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Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston Region Using ADCIRC

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  1. Update on Hurricane Modeling Scenarios in the Houston RegionUsing ADCIRC Clint Dawson and Jennifer Proft Casey Dietrich, Nishant Panda, Adnan Muhammad Antonia Sebastian, Phil Bedient SSPEED meeting Feb 14 2013

  2. Hurricane Ike Scenarios • Original landfall Ike • Shifted Ike • MightyIke (+15% windspeed ) • SuperIke (+30% windspeed) • SH146 Levees and Hartman Bridge Gate

  3. ADCIRC Simulations • Continuous Galerkin model • OWI winds for Ike • Coupled to SWAN • 10 day simulation • No tidal forcing, no riverine forcing • Runs in about 5 hours on Lonestar with 2048 cores

  4. Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

  5. Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

  6. Bathymetry and Topography of Grid

  7. Ike, Shifted Ike, MightyIke, SuperIke ADCIRC Scenarios • Selected hurricane path and shifted landfall to 8 locations along coastline • Modified OWI wind files to shift path of hurricane • MightyIke: increase windspeed by %15 (high Category 3 at landfall) • SuperIke: increase windspeed by %30 (Category 4 at landfall)

  8. (OL) *Point 7 NEW LANDFALL (NL)

  9. Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall

  10. Shifted Ike: Original Landfall and New Landfall

  11. Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

  12. Hurricane Ike: New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

  13. MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

  14. MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

  15. SuperIke (+30%): Original Landfall (max water surface elevation)

  16. SuperIke (+30%): New Landfall (max water surface elevation)

  17. Hydrographsof Hurricane Ike scenarios showing characteristics at various points of concern

  18. Some Additional Scenarios Tested • Implementation of Oyster Reef • Ike Dike • Hartman Bridge Gate (Levee) • Combined SH146 Levee and Hartman Bridge Levees

  19. SH146 and Hartman Bridge Levees ADCIRC Simulations • Modification of grid to incorporate a Weir Levee along this route at a 22’ height • Hurricane Ike scenario • MightyIke • Shifted to New Landfall

  20. Location of the SH146 Gate/Hartman Levees

  21. Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall, with Levees

  22. Hurricane Ike: Original Landfall Ike track Storm 089 Storm 136

  23. Hurricane Ike: New Landfall, with Levees

  24. Hurricane Ike: New Landfall

  25. MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall, with Levees

  26. MightyIke (+15%): Original Landfall

  27. MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall, with Levees

  28. MightyIke (+15%): New Landfall

  29. Current and future steps • Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid with SuperIke • Run SH146/Hartman Levee grid on synthetic storm tracks • Run additional levee scenarios provided by SSPEED

  30. Ike track Storm 089 Storm 076 Storm 136

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