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ECODRIVE Ecosystem Change in the North Sea: Processes, Drivers, Future Scenarios 2009 – 2012. Overarching Theme Impact of Climate. NAO+. NAO-. NAO-Index. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/. NAO winter index. North Sea. Baltic Sea.

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ECODRIVE

Ecosystem Change in the North Sea:

Processes, Drivers, Future Scenarios

2009 – 2012

Overarching Theme

Impact of Climate


NAO+

NAO-

NAO-Index

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/


NAO winter index

North Sea

Baltic Sea

NAO winter index, annnual temperature minimum in the Intermediate

Winter Water (IWW) of the Bornholm Basin, Station K2, (solid line)

and annual SST anomalies at Helgoland Roads (dashed line)

Alheit et al. 2005


North Sea

Central North Sea, anomalies: SST, phytoplankton colour, dinoflagellates, diatoms

Edwards and Johns 2006


Regime Shift Nordsee

Edwards et al., SAHFOS Techn. Rep. (in press) CPR data


Surface air temperature anomalies

(Johannessen et al. 2004)

AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Kerr,

Science, 2005


Relative SST anomalies, plotted as five-year averages from 1910 to 2005.

ICES Zooplankton Status Report 2006/07 (O’Brien et al. 2008)


Decadal changes in distributions of Northeast Atlantic calanoid copepods, based on rate of occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).


Anchovy catch rates calanoid copepods, based on rate of occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).

courtesy D. Reid

1990 1995 2004


Fischereiwelt (1950) calanoid copepods, based on rate of occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).

Helgoländer

Meeresunters. 4 (1953)


Sardine egg abundance, Engl. Channel (Hawkins et al. 2002) calanoid copepods, based on rate of occurrence in CPR samples. Beaugrand (2005).


Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring and the longterm-averaged temperature (the AMO signal) (Toresen og Østvedt 2000)

Long-term averaged temperature

Stock collapse caused by overfishing under a cooling climate

Start of the new herring period after 17 years of fishing moratorium and the formation of the outstanding 1983 year class


What is impact of interactions of NAO, AMO and Global Warming on marine ecosystems?

Four winter climate regimes in SLP

(Hurrell and Deser, in press)

AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)

(Kerr, Science 2005)


ECODRIVE Warming on marine ecosystems?

Focus on Climate

► Impact of climate variability

● North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

● Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

► Impact of Global Warming

Methods

► Field sampling

► Retrospective time series analysis

● Continuous Plankton Recorder

● Helgoland Roads Series

► Modeling


Hering Warming on marine ecosystems?

Clupea harengus

Sprotte

Sprattus sprattus

Sardine

Sardina pilchardus

Sardelle (Anchovis)

Engraulis enchrasicolus


In this conceptual diagram, EVERYTHING is inter-related. The colors denote interactions.

Approach discussed at IHF. Mike sees „stoplight“ approach – as an important visualization of ecosystem state (past, present & future). The approach shown can be used for „everything, or all ecosystem components“ or just selected key species... The latter might be better, but selling both is likely worthwhile.

WP1 compiles information on field data and basic species-specific interactions (trophic coupling between key species) and includes basic ecophysiology (abiotic controls on species groups, etc). Basically, this is a WP where we assemble what is known. Additional cruises (proposed field data collection) can be added here.

Knowledge from WP1 is then combined with modelling efforts in WP2 that produce time series (red + blue = purple). WP2 delivers time series (e.g., stratification, temperature, turbulence – physical factors that influence biology). The informed proxies come out of this retrospective analysis (WP1 & Wp2) along with model improvement (NPZD groups better defined based upon work from WP1. Yellow chosen here as the third primary color.

The combination of yellow & blue = green (future scenarios). Drivers like eutrophication and exploitation levels/patterns should be included. Regional downscaling based on IPCC scenarios can be used to run hydrodynamics models... That drive future change based upon work in WP4.

The big circle is project intergration WP (6)....

System Description (WP1)

Time Series

(field data)

Trophic

Coupling

(biotic)

Ecophysiology

(abiotic)

(WP6)

project

integration

(WP3)

Past / Present

Responses

(WP4)

Informed

Proxies

(WP5)

Future

Senarios

MSVPA

( Tertiary

Exchange )

NPZD

( phyto-

Zoopl )

Hydro-

Climate

(physics)

System Modelling (WP2)



Regime Shift Baltic Sea German Bight

DiatomsDinoflagellates

Wasmund and Uhlig 2003

Changes on 3 trophic levels:

- phytoplankton

- zooplankton

- fish

Alheit et al. 2005


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