MISMANAGEMENT OF FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

1. MISMANAGEMENT OF FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENT VOJIN JOKSIMOVICH, Ph.D SD IEEE APRIL 27, 2011

2. CONTENT • 2011 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE SNAPSHOT • NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS AFFECTED • BWR MARK I SCHEMATIC • NUCLEAR SAFETY PHILOSOPHY • DAIICHI DESIGN BASES • DAIICHI ACCIDENT TIMELINE 3/11 TO 3/15 • AN ACCIDENT SUMMARY: MISMANAGEMENT ASSERTION • SETBACKS FOR N POWER • CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR N POWER

3. PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF INFO • TOKYO ELECTRIC POWER (TEPCO) RELEASES • JAPAN NUCLEAR & INDUSTRIAL SAFETY AGENCY (NISA) & JAPAN NUCLEAR ENERGY SAFETY ORGANIZATION (JNES) DAILY RELEASES • JAPAN ATOMIC INDUSTRIAL FORUM (JAIF) • JAPAN PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE • WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION (WNA); WORLD NUCLEAR NEWS (WNN) • NHK WORLD IN ENGLISH—TV STATION • AREVA; WASEDA UNIVERSITY, UC BERKELEY • ASAHI.COM; FINANCIAL TIMES, WIKIPEDIA

4. 2011 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE SNAPSHOT • ENERGY RELEASED EQUIVALENT TO 9,320 GIGATONS OF TNT, ~600 MILLION TIMES ENERGY OF HIROSHIMA 1945 BOMB; PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION 2.99; FIFTH LARGEST EVER RECORDED SINCE 1900 • KNOCKED OUT NORTH JAPAN POWER GRID;CREATED TSUNAMI WITH LARGE WAVES UP TO 124 FT, CAUSED MORE DEVASTATION THAN QUAKE ITSELF, WALLS OF WATER SWALLOWED COASTAL TOWNS • ONE OF WORST NATURAL DISASTER IN HISTORY • MOST DIFFICULT CRISIS IN JAPAN SINCE WWII • DEATH TOLL OF ~27,000, INCLUDING THREE TEPCO FUKUSHIMA WORKERS • AFTER MARCH 11 14:46 (JST) OVER 900 AFTERSHOCKS WITH ~60 OVER 6.0 M, 3 OVER 7: 7.7, 7-9 & 7.1 • ~$31O B, WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE NATURAL DISASTER

5. NUCLEAR PLANTS AFFECTED • JAPAN: 54 OPERATING N PLANTS, 30% NATION’S ELECTRICITY;TEPCO 17 PLANTS • 14 IN PROXIMITY: TOHOKU 3 ONAGAWA UNITS; TEPCO 6 FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI (1F)--IN OPERATION 1971-79 & 4 FUKUSHIMA DAINI (2F), TOKAI DAINI • AT QUAKE TIME (1F)# 1-3 OPERATIONAL, 4-6 SHUTDOWN; (2F)# 1-4 OPERATIONAL; REACTORS + COAL PLANTS AUTOMATICALLY SHUTDOWN BUT FP DECAY HEAT HAS TO BE REMOVED • FOCUS: ACCIDENTS: (F1) #1 460 MW, #2 & # 3 768 MW; #4 SFP; ALL BWRs; REACTOR VENDORS: GE, TOSHIBA & HITACHI; A/Es EBASCO, KAJIMA

7. NUCLEAR SAFETY PHILOSOPHY • NUCLEAR SAFETY: ABILITY TO RETAIN FPs WITHIN PLACE OF ORIGIN: N FUEL • TWO OTHER FP BARRIERS: RPV & CV • LWR NUMBER 1 N SAFETY IMPERATIVE: KEEP CORE FLOODED AT ALL TIMES • EXISTING GEN II LWRs RELIANCE ON ENGINEERED ACTIVE SAFETY FEATURES; GEN III LWRs (BEING CERTIFIED BY NRC) RELIANCE ON PASSIVE COOLING FEATURES; RELIANCE ON INHERENT FEATURES: GCRs, HTGRs, GEN IV

8. PLANT DESIGN BASES FOR QAKES/TSUNAMI; PROCEDURES • ACCELERATION MEASURED BY QUAKE AT (1F)#3 507 GAL (DB 441), AT (1F)#6 431 GAL (DB 448 GAL); NEW SEISMIC STANDARD OF 600 GAL (LATERAL) WASN’T IMPLEMENTED AT (1F) • DESPITE BEYOND DB KEY STRUCTURES SEEM TO HAVE BEEN UNDAMAGED; TSUNAMI DB 5.7 M; 2011 TOHOKU 14-15 M • SEVERE ACCIDENT PROCEDURES IN PLACE SINCE 1990s CALL FOR: CV VENTING, FEED & BLEED; SEAWATER INJECTION, FIRE PROTECTION PUMP OR FIRE ENGINE; POWER SUPPLY TRUCKS, CROSS TIES (BECAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENT AS OF 3/30)

9. FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI ACCIDENT TIMELINE #1 • 14:46 QUAKE: LOSS OF N JAPAN GRID;TEPCO PRESIDENT & CHAIRMAN ON BUSINESS TRIPS; PRIME MINISTER (PM) KAN AT DIET HEARINGS; TOKYO NISA EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS HEADQUARTERS SET UP • 15:42 TSUNAMI IMPACT: DAIICHI (1F): FLOODING OF SERVICE WATER BLDS CAUSING LOSS OF ULTIMATE HEAT SINK PLUS LOSS OF AC POWER: 12 ONSITE POWER DIESELS (DGs) DISABLED; LOSS OF WATER INJECTION ABILITY BY ECCS PUMPS, LOSS OF CONTROL ROOM • DAINI (2F): FLOODING, OFF-SITE POWER AVAILABLE • 16:36 (1F)#1 PASSIVE RCIC PROVIDED CORE COOLING (CC) FOR ~1 HR, 27 HRS W.O CC; #3 RCIC~35 HRS, 7 HRS W.O CC; #2 RCIC ~70 HRS, 7 HRS W.O. CC • ~16:30 TEPCO OFFICIALS TOLD PM OFFICE NO PROBLEM FOR 8 HRS EVEN IF NO POWER SOURCES PROVIDED

11. TIMELINE #2 • 17:00 PM ADDRESSED NATION: NO RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY, SERIOUS ACCIDENT • 19:03 PM DECLARES NUCLEAR EMERGENCY: RESPONSE CENTERS ESTABLISHED FOR INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION: METI (NISA), JNSC • 19:45 CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY YUKIO EDANO BECOMES GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN • 21:23 PM DIRECTED LOCAL OFFICIALS TO EVACUATE RESIDENTS WITHIN 3KM FROM (1F) & WITHIN 10 KM FROM TO STAY INDOORS • MARCH 12: 0.00 #1 RPV PRESSURE 2.1 DESIGN VALUE; TURBINE BLDG RADIATION • 1:30 JNES CHIEF CONVINCES PM #1 CV VENTING • 3:00 EDANO: FINAL VENTING PREPARATIONS • 4:40 MAIN GATE RADIATION INCREASE ~5microSv/h

14. TIMELINE #3 • 5:44 PM ORDERS EVACUATION TO 10 KM • 6 :00 PM ASKS WHEN VENTING WOULD START? TEPCO: “VENTING POWER SOURCE CUT OFF” • 7:00 PM SITE VISIT; PM ANGRY “WHY DON’T YOU HURRY WITH VENTING,” TELLS TEPCO WANTS TO DEAL DIRECTLY WITH PLANT MANAGER • 7:45 EVACUATION/STAY INDOORS FOR DAINI (F2) • 7:50 51 POWER TRUCKS ARRIVED, POWER COULDN’T BE CONNECTED TO PLANT---PLUGS DIDN’T FIT • 9:00 CV VENTING PROCEDURE STARTED; 11:52 Cs-137 DETECTED, NISA ANNOUNCES CORE MELT; FIRE ENGINE WATER PUMPING INITIATED • 14:30 CV VENT OPENED; RADIATION ~1mSv/h • 15:36 HYDROGEN EXPLOSION BLOWING OFF SERVICE FLOOR ROOF, SMOKE—TEPCO BELIEVED NAGANO QUAKE, 4 PLANT WORKERS INJURED

15. TIMELINE #4 • 18:25 (F1) EVACUATION EXTENDED TO 20 KM • 20:20 PM ORDERS #1 PUMPING OF SEAWATER; 22:15 SUSPENDED—AFTERSHOCK; 0:00 RESUMED • MARCH 13: 2:44 #3 HPCI FAILS--BATTERIES; RCIC FAILS; 4:15 RAPID RPV CORE UNCOVERY; 8:33 1.2 miliSv/h AT SITE BOUNDARY; 8:41 CV VENTING • 12:51 #3 WATER LEVEL MINUS 190 CM; 13:12 SEAWATER PUMPING INITIATED • EVE: FUKUSHIMA GOVERNOR MAD AT TEPCO • MARCH 14: #1& #3 1:10-3:3:20 PUMPING SUSPENDED- SEAWATER IN POOLS RAN OUT • 6:50 #3 HIGH CV PRESSURE • 11:01 #3 HYDROGEN EXPLOSION BLOWING SERVICE FLOOR ROOF, 11 INJURED

16. TIMELINE #5 • 13:25 #2 RCIC PUMP FAILS, 18:22 #2 CORE MELTDOWN; 18:24 SEAWATER STARTED, SUSPENDED;20:05 RESUMED • 21:37 3.1 miliSv/h AT MAIN GATE; 22:22 CV WETWELL DAMAGE SUSPECTED; TEPCO: INFORMAL INTENT TO EVACUATE EMPLOYEES; PM: “IS TEPCO PLANNING TO ABANDON ROLE AS ELECTRIC POWER CO?” • MARCH 15: 0:02 #2 CV VENT OPENED; NRC/IAEA EXPERTS ACCEPTED; 3:00 #2 CORE STILL UNCOVERED • 6:00 #4 EXPLOSION CAUSED HOLE IN RB • 6:14 #2 WORK FORCE REDUCED TO 50 FOR PUMPING • 9:00 11.9 milliSv/h AT MAIN GATE • 10:30 METI ORDERS: #4 PREVENT RECRITICALITY; #2 INJECT WATER PROMPTLY & VENT DRYWELL • 11:OO PM EXTENDS STAY INDOORS TO 30 KM • 13:00 #2 WATER LEVEL RECOVERED TO MINUS 170CM

17. TIMELINE #6 • ~3:30 PM CALLS CABINET MINISTERS; EDANO: “NO CONCERN ABOUT LAW,” MEET WITH TEPCO; UPSHOT SET UP INTEGRATED HEADQUARTERS AT TEPCO; TEPCO LATER GOES ALONG • PM “WHAT DO YOU INTEND TO DO,” SHIMIZU: “WE WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO PROTECT F1;” PM “PULLING OUT IS NOT AN OPTION” • AFTER 3 HRS WITH TEPCO EXECUTIVES PM FELL ASLEEP SEATED. AFTERWARDS PM TO AIDES “BRING ALL INFO TO ME. I WILL MAKE DECISIONS. I WILL CONTACT THAT INDIVIDUAL DIRECTLY.” • MANAGEMENT OF UNPARALLED COMPLEXITY INITIATED. EXAMPLE: PM ASKED FOR 139 TOKYO FIRE DEPT FORCE TO BE DEPLOYED

18. AN ACCIDENT SUMMARY • MISMAGEMENT UNTIL MARCH 16: ACCIDENT NOT UNDERSTOOD; LACK OF EMERGENCY DRILLS; TIMELY DECISIONS NOT MADE; TEPCO BUNGLING; PM MAD AT TEPCO/ METI, HIRED OWN ADVISERS; TEPCO: PUBLIC APOLOGY; COZY R/U;CULTURAL TOP-DOWN ISSUES? • THREE REACTOR CORE MELTDOWNS); LOW WATER LEVELS;UNITS 1-4 SPENT FUEL POOL DAMAGE • # 2 & 3 LOST PRESSURE, SUSPECTED RPV OR CV DAMAGE---EXTENT UNKNOWN • FUEL CONTAINED BUT VOLATILE & SOLUBLE FISSION PRODUCTS RELEASED TO ENVIRONMENT • # 1-4 TOTAL WRITEOFF, DECOMMISSIONING • INES SCALE RAISED FROM 5 TO 7 (EXAGGERATION?) SAME AS CHERNOBYL BUT WITH 1/10 RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY: MOSTLY I-131, Cs-134 & 137 • NO EARLY FATALITIES OR RADIATION INJURIES; 21 PLANT WORKERS EXPOSED TO ~100mSv

19. REMEDIATION PLAN • APRIL 17 TEPCO ANNOUNCES FIRST TIME REMEDIATION PLAN • COLD SHUTDOWN WITHIN 6-9 MONTHS • COOLING REACTORS: # 1-3 CV FLOODED & NITROGEN INJECTION: #2 DAMAGED CV SEALED BEFORE FLOODING • COOLING & REMOVING SPENT FUEL # 1-4; WATER INJECTION AND COOLING CIRCULATION • MANAGING CONTAMINATED WATER: NEW STORAGE WILL BE INSTALLED • MINIMIZING RELEASE OF RADIOACTIVITY TO ENVIRONS: STRUCTURE BUILT OVER REACTOR BUILDINGS 1, 3 & 4 • PREPARING FOR RETURN OF EVACUEES: EVACUATION ZONE DECONTAMINATION, MONITORING

20. SOME WORLD REACTIONS • STOCK MARKET: URANIUM 25% DOWN; UP 10.8% CO2 EMISSION; 13.4% GAS; 10.8% COAL • SARKOZY/KAN: CALL FOR CLEAR SAFETY STANDARDS, G20 N REGULATORS MTG • AMANO: HIGH LEVEL N SAFETY MTG; WNA CHIEFS APPLAUDS INITIATIVE • N INDUSTRY LEADERS: PREPARE FOR NEW NUCLEAR INDUSTRY; NEED FOR TECHNOLOGY WILL NOT CHANGE • MOST NATIONS ANNOUNCED INTENTION TO RE-REVIEW SAFETY, GERMANY EXCEPTION-ROUTE TRULY DAMAGING TO N POWER

21. SETBACKS FOR NUCLEAR POWER • GERMANY: 7 PRE-1980 BUILT PLANTS, 8336 MW, IDLE 3 MONTHS, 18% ELECTRICITY PRICE RISE; MORATORIUM TO EXTEND LIFE OF 17 PLANTS FOR 12 YRS: MERKEL U-TURN; FUTURE WITHOUT N POWER:WIND FARMS,COAL & GAS; RWE LAW SUIT • EU: “STRESS TESTS” FOR NUCLEAR PLANTS • US: NRG ENERGY SOUTH TEXAS 3&4 $481 M WRITEDOWN: “DIMINISHED PROSPECTS” FOR US RENAISSANCE; NRC 3-6 MONTHS REVIEW; NRC CONTINUES TO ISSUE LIFE EXTENTIONS LIC • ITALY: REBOOTED N PROGRAM INTO 1-YR MORATORIUM • INDONESIA: CANCELLED PLAN FOR 1ST PLANT

22. NO CHANGE • SARCOZY: “WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE N POWER. THAT WILL NOT CHANGE” • CHINA: N RENAISSANCE LEADER WITH 29 PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION: FREEZE OF NEW N PROJECTS UNTIL 2012, 2011 NEW ATOMIC ENERGY LAW AND SAFETY CODES; 40 GW BY 2015 UNCHANGED, INSPECTIONS BUT NO SHUTDOWN OF OPERATING PLANTS. RECENTLY, MAY APPROVE NEW BUILDS? • INDIA (SINGH):”WHEN COOL HEADED DISCUSSIONS TAKE PLACE ABOUT FUTURE OF ENERGY, NUCLEAR WOULD BE ONE OF ESSENTIAL OPTIONS WHICH ALL COUNTIES MUST KEEP TO DEAL WITH PROBLEMS LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY SECURITY.”RECENT DEMOS MAY HAVE POLITICAL IMPACT • PUTIN: NO CHANGE N DEVELOPMENT PLANS • UAE, TURKEY, BELARUS TO PROCEED