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GTOS SC Session 4, Paris, France, 30 Nov- 2 Dec, 2009

Implication and Opportunities for GTOS from WCC-3 Outcomes Observing and Information Systems Department W. ZHANG, WMO Secretariat. GTOS SC Session 4, Paris, France, 30 Nov- 2 Dec, 2009. World Climate Conference-3: a historic event Better climate information for a better future. Thank you

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GTOS SC Session 4, Paris, France, 30 Nov- 2 Dec, 2009

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  1. Implication and Opportunities for GTOS from WCC-3 OutcomesObserving and Information Systems DepartmentW. ZHANG, WMO Secretariat GTOS SC Session 4, Paris, France, 30 Nov- 2 Dec, 2009

  2. World Climate Conference-3: a historic eventBetter climate information for a better future Thank you Merci Gracias Спасибо شكرا 谢 谢

  3. The road to WCC-3 • 1st WCC (1979) • 2nd WCC (1990) • Climate variability/change impacts on all socioeconomic sectors • A Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) required • A Cg-XV decision (2007) • A 2-year preparatory process • International Organizing Committee • Preparation with Members

  4. Conference opening

  5. Conference Experts Segment

  6. High-level Segment participation

  7. High-level Segment opening

  8. WCC-3 High-level Declaration (approved on 3 September 2009) DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the Conference; OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services; OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration an intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance; OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note; OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of a Framework and a plan for its implementation; and OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN Secretary-General.

  9. WCC-3 High-level Declaration (approved on 3 September 2009) DO 1 We, Heads of State and Government, Ministers and Heads of Delegation present at the High-level Segment of the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, noting the findings of the Expert Segment of the Conference; OP 1 Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (hereafter referred to as “the Framework”) to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services; OP 2 Request the Secretary-General of WMO to convene within four months of the adoption of the Declaration an intergovernmental meeting of member states of the WMO to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors to be appointed by the Secretary-General of the WMO with due consideration to expertise, geographical and gender balance; OP 3 Decide that the task force will, after wide consultation with governments, partner organizations and relevant stakeholders, prepare a report, including recommendations on proposed elements of the Framework, to the Secretary-General of WMO within 12 months of the task force being set up. The report should contain findings and proposed next steps for developing and implementing a Framework. In the development of their report, the taskforce will take into account the concepts outlined in the annexed Brief Note; OP 4 Decide further that the report of the task force shall be circulated by the Secretary-General of WMO to Member States of the WMO for consideration at the next WMO Congress in 2011, with a view to the adoption of a Framework and a plan for its implementation; and OP 5 Invite the Secretary-General of WMO to provide the report to relevant organizations, including the UN Secretary-General. Decide to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services

  10. WCC-3 closure

  11. Key WCC-3 statistics • 13 messages by Heads of State/Governments + 3 on their behalf • 57 Ministers or equivalent officials also addressed the HLS • 14 Executive Heads of UN Agencies & Programmes present • 17 major contributors to Conference trust fund • ~ 2500 participants/exceptional developing country participation • ~ 23k WCC-3 web site visits during the period

  12. The way ahead • Within 4 months, to convene an intergovernmental meeting to approve the terms of reference and to endorse the composition of a task force of high-level, independent advisors • Within 4+12 = 16 months to receive the task force’s Report and recommendations on the proposed GFCS • Before Cg-XVI (2011), to submit the Report to WMO Members • To provide the Report to relevant organizations • The beginning of a process!

  13. WMOINTEGRATED GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM(WIGOS) Building on the past success and make the best things better

  14. WMO GOS Space-based development 1961 1978 1990 2009

  15. Convergence of N.Hem and S.Hem Medium Range Forecast skill 1981 – 2004

  16. Impact of satellite observations on reanalyses N-15 N-16 N-17 AQUA AIRS+AMSUA SH scores = NH scores

  17. A Seamless Climate Prediction Framework Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Lead Time Applications Climate Change. Centuries Scenarios Decades Anthropogenic Forcing Climate Variability Years Outlook Prediction Seasons Guidance Months Boundary Conditions Threats Assessments 2 Weeks Weather 1 Week Forecasts Initial Conditions Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Adapted from: NOAA Minutes Energy Health State/Local Planning Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Space Applications Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Agriculture Water Management Water Resource Planning Transportation

  18. Challenges: Climate Change and severe disasters, increasing society needs for improved services El Niño Hot & cold spells Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Storm (winds) Dust storms Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes

  19. Need an Integrated Global Observing System Going Beyond the WWW

  20. Studying Earth as a Complex System Surface Winds Precipitation Reflection and Transmission Evaporation Transpiration Surface Temperature Land Atmosphere Circulation Surface Winds Precipitation Reflection and Transmission Surface Temperature Evaporation Currents Upwelling Infiltration Runoff Nutrient Loading Surface Temperature Currents Ocean

  21. WIGOS: Overview CONGRESS XV (2007) High priority -- “Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems” (WIGOS) WMO Executive Council Established a WG on WIGOS-WIS Develop an WIGOS Implementation Plan Refine the WIS-Implementation Plan Monitor the Progress of the Pilot and Demo projects

  22. WIGOS Vision WIGOS will establish an integrated, comprehensive and coordinated observing system to satisfy in acost-effective and sustained manner the evolving observing requirements of WMO Members and enhance coordination with partners for the benefit of society.

  23. Users QMF Standards Instruments and methods of observation standards Data Processing and Forecasting WIS Standards for Data & Metadata exchange & Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR) Services Observations for Weather, Climate, Water, Ocean, … Archiving Active Quality Management Three areas of Integrations/Standardizations

  24. Importance of observations : From Observations to Consequences Understanding Analysis Observations Monitoring Validation Models Consequences Assimilation Initialization Predictions The availability of new observations strongly motivates advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

  25. Timeline @ WIGOS IP Cg-XVI EC-LVIII Cg-XV EC-LX EC-LXI EC-LXII June 2008 June 2010 May 2011 June 2006 May 2007 June 2009 NOW REALITY  CONCEPT CBS XIV Cg-XV decided to embark on WIGOS via Res. 30 (CG XV); initiated WMO Programme and structural changes; EC-LIX established EC WG on WIGOS/WIS; EC LVIII initiated work “toward enhanced integration between the WMO observing systems”; establishes EC Task Team on WIGOS EC LX agreed to WIGOS Concept of Operations and WIGOS Development and Implementation Plan V1.1 Review progress and update plans as appropriate Review progress, update plans; Pilot Projects completed and evaluated; Propose changes to Tech Regs, structure, etc; Prepare for CG XVI Cg-XVI receives final report of EC WG WIGOS/WIS

  26. WIGOS Benefits Improved observing networks operations Increased access to observational data and products with improved quality More efficient use of all available resources (cost-effectiveness) Better preparedness to incorporate new observing systems and to interface with WMO co-sponsored observing systems Allowing Members to more efficient and effectively respond to new challenges and evolving user service requirements.

  27. No.1 Priority: fill-in the gaps Ocean Terrestrial Atmospheric chemistry For example: How to carry on Polar Regions and Cryosphere observation on operational basis? Linkage to GTOS

  28. The Arctic Ocean ice has been there for 2 million years.

  29. 1979

  30. 2003

  31. Tiksi, Russia Barrow, Alaska Eureka, Canada Alert, Canada Ny-Alesund, Svalbard Summit, Greenland Establishing Intensive Atmospheric Observatories In the Arctic is the component of NOAA/SEARCH being directed by ESRL

  32. Temperature-salinity observations under ice

  33. IPYlegacy issues • Assessment of IPY observing system covered all projects within the domains: Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, Land, People, Earth & Space • Legacy: Make the IPY project outcome durable • Safeguard continued availability of data and results to the community • Support observing sites & facilities established through or within the IPY to continue polar monitoring and research

  34. No. 2 priority: ensuring the quality of the observations: Climate observations

  35. knowledge data Methodology: standardization: Instruments: Standardize the instruments, especially the performance of the absolute accuracy (long-term) Science: Seek the best science-based algorithms (standards?) Technology: Standardize the data processing procedures (modules) Validation: procedures and standards, global supersites networks, etc. International coordination (compliance and acceptance). products information

  36. NPOESS Algorithms as Key Inputs to User Models Payload IPT • Delivered Science Algorithms • ATBD • Science-grade code • Test Sets Sensor and Operating Environment Characterization Science Algorithm Development/ Procurement SE IPT Science Algorithm Verification • Verified Science Algorithms • ATBD • Science-grade code • Test Sets • OADs • Correction requests • Incomplete delivery • Non-compliant products • Failure Analysis IDPS IPT Science to Operational Algorithm Migration • Operational Algorithms • Operational Algorithm Document • Operational-grade code • Science Discrepancy Reports • Timeliness failure • Quality failure • EDR Test output ST&E IPT • Operational Verification Test Reports • Pass • Fail • - Timeliness failure • - Quality failure Operational Algorithm Performance Verification • Verified Operational Algorithms • Operational-grade code • Calibrated/Validated Operational Algorithms • Calibration Coefficients • Operational-grade code ST&E IPT • Discrepancy reports • New calibration coefficients Specific IPTs have responsibility and budget for assigned algorithm activities within program phases Operational Algorithm Cal/Val O&S IPT • Discrepancy Reports • Operation • Performance User Operational Algorithm Assessment

  37. S 3 C Comm Comm Comm Data Xmitter Receiver Processing Store SPACE SEGMENT Delivered Raw CCSDS (mux, code, frame) & Encrypt IDPS Packetization RDR Production SENSORS Compression RDR Level Filtration Aux. SUBSYSTEMS OTHER Sensor A/D Conversion Data TDR Level Detection SDR Production Flux Cal. Manipulation Source SDR Level ENVIRONMENTAL EDR Production SOURCE EDR Level COMPONENTS NPOESS products delivered at multiple levels

  38. Organizational Structure of WMO (188 Members) CONGRESS ExecutiveCouncil Regional Associations Technical Commissions Working Groups Rapporteurs Working Groups Rapporteurs Other Bodies JSC-WCRP , IPCC JSTC-GCOS Working Groups Panel of Experts Secretary-General Secretariat WMO/OMM

  39. WMO Secretariat structure: rational clustering

  40. WMO Space Programme coordinated effortSustained Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM)Response to GCOS Requirements

  41. Space-based Component WMO’s Global Observing System (GOS)

  42. Introduction: Satellites supporting Climate Applications Satellite observations simulations In situ observation Climate process studies Operational climate monitoring Climate variability Trend analysis Adaptation and mitigation Decision making Climate Applications

  43. ConsistentCalibrateddata sets Essential Climate products Satellite data Satellites & sensors Users GSICS GOS SCOPE-CM Maximizing Data Quality and Usability • Sustained CO-ordinated Processing of Environmental satellite data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE-CM) • Global products • Sustained into the future • Coordinated globally

  44. EOS/Hyperion & GOES-R e,g Any LEO & Any GEO = similar MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & EOS/Hyperion e.g. MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPP [PM] = similar MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [PM] = similar NPOESS (C2 or C4) [early AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [early PM] LEO vs. LEO Cross-Comparison GSICS: Opportunities for Cross-Calibration / Validation Simultaneous Nadir Overpasses (SNO) NOAA-18 [AM] & EOS-Terra [PM] e,g MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPP [PM] = similar MetOp (1,2 or 3) [AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [PM] = similar NPOESS (C2 or C4) [early AM] & NPOESS (C1 or C3) [early PM] GEO vs. LEO Cross-Comparison LEO vs. LEO Inter-Calibration Orbit Trajectories courtesy of Changyong Cao and Mitch Goldberg, NOAA/NESDIS

  45. WMO’s SCOPE-CM initiative: goals and structure • Initial Participants of the SCOPE-CM Network • Operational Satellite operators: • NOAA • JMA • CMA • EUMETSAT • Stakeholder • WMO Space Programme • GCOS • CEOS • CGMS/GSICS

  46. SCOPE-CM Pilot Projects

  47. Pilot project examples: Project 1 • AVHRR cloud effective droplet radius • 30 year of AVHRR data after re-calibration • Processing and validation started for selected regions

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