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SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ARBOVIRUSES RISKS IN AMAZON BASED ON THE STUDY OF ECOLOGICAL NICHES

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ARBOVIRUSES RISKS IN AMAZON BASED ON THE STUDY OF ECOLOGICAL NICHES. Arboviruses = group of infeccious diseases with cycles in native Amazonian ecosystems; several of them naturally infectious to humans

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SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ARBOVIRUSES RISKS IN AMAZON BASED ON THE STUDY OF ECOLOGICAL NICHES

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  1. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ARBOVIRUSES RISKS IN AMAZON BASED ON THE STUDY OF ECOLOGICAL NICHES

  2. Arboviruses = group of infeccious diseases with cycles in native Amazonian ecosystems; several of them naturally infectious to humans Believed to occupy limited niches with focal distribution, but few studies on relevant ecotopes Predicted climatic changes would also change their geographical distribution and risk of human infecctions

  3. Recent technique of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) can improve knowledge of geographical distribution of plant & animal species in natural environments  software GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction) in GIS environment distribution of vectors, reservoirs and infecctious agents

  4. GENERAL OBJECTIVE To predict the potential geographical distribution of different kinds of arboviruses in the Amazon region, identifying the ecological characteristics which are favorable for keeping the wild cycles.

  5. Specific objectives To produce maps of potential áreas of arboviruses’ geographical distribution To relate this geographical distribution with already known and/or modelled habitats of likely vertebrate reservoirs To evaluate likely areas of future geographical distribution of arboviruses, applying scenarios of climate change To analyse the patterns of modelled geographical distribution of viruses, compared to the viral philogeny in order to identify a philogeographical structure, capable of keeping permanent loco-regional pools

  6. Arboviruses data: from Evandro Chagas Institute (Belém, PA) data bank, from 1954 to 2004-05-13 Physical and biotic variables: vegetation, climate (daily and annual temperature variations, annual rainfall, no. of rainy days, water vapour pressure), topography (elevation, slope, flux orientation, topographic index) Climate scenarios: HadCM2 model of general circulation, evaluating the implications with the HHGSDX-50 (0.5 % annual increment of CO2) and the HHGGAX-50 (1 % annual increase in CO2). Sample collections for validating models: three sites not yet surveyed  for isolating viral samples in arthropod and vertebrates

  7. Timeframe: 24 months • Research team: ???? • Funding: ???? • General rating: • good proposal • appropriate for LBA objectives within the HD theme

  8. Site 1 - central Amazonia Tropical rainforest International Symposia on Long-Term Ecological Studies Manaus, AM, Brazil July, 1-11 2004 July, 1-3: Symposium on the 25-years of the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project July, 4-6: I Brazilian LTER (PELD) Symposium July, 4: Latin-American LTER Network Meeting July, 7-9: International LTER Coordinating and Executive Meeting (ILTER Meeting) July, 9-11: Field trips to LTER sites in Amazonia

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