Alfonso Guzman, November 22 2013

1. Institutional Framework and Business Models Approach and Methodology Alfonso Guzman, November 22 2013

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Context • Lessons learned from international experience • Approach and work plan • Preliminary understanding of institutional situation • Points for discussion

3. Myanmar has a major electrification challenge… The electrification rate 29%... 43 million out of 60 million people have no access ...Most of these 43 million people live in rural areas …and nearly 15 million are less than 14 years old

4. ..and the challenge is significant … Need to connect close to4xas many households per year to reach universal access by 2030 New household connections per year 189,000 • Source: MOEP, ESE, YESB data and Castalia estimations • Assumes 6.5 people in a household

5. ..but lessons on institutional frameworks from other countries could help Myanmar • Responsibilities for service delivery need to be separated from policy setting, planning and regulation • Countries with an entity assigned and funded to expand access to electricity have achieved good results • Commercial viability of the utility or service delivery agents is key to sustainability • Significant increases in access to electricity requires support of public funds • Private sector can play a useful role by bringing innovation and capital—but will need incentives to focus in less profitable areas

6. Some of Myanmar’s neighbors have succeeded % Households electrified Constant GDP $ 1000s per capita • Source: World Bank, One Goal two Paths

7. ..mainly because they have clear institutional arrangements, Source: World Bank & Castalia

8. …and have involved private sector where it is feasible Honduras solar program User owns equipment

9. Approach: Phase I and Phase II Phase I January 2014 Map out institutional arrangements Informal consultation with GoM (proposed) Identify institutional gaps and overlaps Identify preliminary institutional options Identify preliminary business models Preliminary findings Preliminary Funding assessment Phase II March 2014 Workshop III Adjust options Interim Road Map

10. Approach: Phase III and Phase IV June-July 2014 Phase III Workshop IV Update business models and identify funding financing needs Initial results from Columbia University Review and update interim Institutional options Draft Final Road Map and Prospectus Develop detailed financial model Phase IV August 2014 Updated results from Columbia University Final Road Map & Prospectus Revise and detail options Updated feedback from Workshop

11. Preliminary understanding of institutional setup…

12. Points for discussion • Which entity or entities will manage the implementation of the National Electrification Plan? • What are the roles and responsibilities for different agencies for: • Adopting electrification plans? • Setting the electrification policy and regulations? • Monitoring and updating electrification plans? • Coordinating and harmonizing on grid and off grid programs? • What would be suitable business models for engaging the private sector?

13. Contact us • 1747 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, • Suite 1200 • WASHINGTON DC 20006 • United States of America • T: +1 202 466-6790 • Alfonso.Guzman@castalia-advisors.com • www.castalia-advisors.com