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NOAA’s response strategy to the Hurricane Iintensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations. Greg Mandt NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology 01 Feb 07. 11-Jan-07 DRAFT 1. Outline. Purpose Issue Background & Discussion

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NOAA’s response strategy to the Hurricane Iintensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

Greg Mandt

NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology

01 Feb 07

11-Jan-07 DRAFT 1


Outline
Outline Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

  • Purpose

  • Issue

  • Background & Discussion

  • Alternatives

  • Coordination and Views

  • Output

  • Recommendation


Purpose
Purpose Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

  • Inform the NEP about the HIWRG and NSB reports -

  • Solicit NEP feedback on proposed strategy to formulate a NOAA response to satisfy request for a final briefing at the Fall 07 SAB

    • e.g., Constraints on the response?


Issue
Issue Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

  • NOAA SAB chartered the High Intensity Working Group (HIRWG) to recommend how can NOAA further improve and advance hurricane intensity forecasting

  • NOAA Research Council tasked W/OST with preparing a response to the recommendations in the HIRWG and related reports


Background discussion
Background & Discussion Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

  • HIWRG issued final reports Jun06-

    • Majority report – 29 recomendations

    • Minority report – 7 recommendations

    • NOAA offices provided informal feedback to earlier version but NOAA has no formal response yet

  • National Science Board (NSB) report Nov06 Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative –

    • NSF Ratification expected soon (10Feb07)

    • NSB briefed NOAA SAB

    • Proposes creation of multi-agency National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI) to implement general recommendations

    • Proposed bipartisan legislation [Sen. Martínez (FL)] makes NSF and NOAA the NHRI’s lead agencies

    • Four major investment themes call for $300M additional funding along with prioritized recommendations


Proposed strategy
Proposed Strategy Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

  • Evaluate the recommendations in the various NOAA plans, identify gaps, and issue NOAA action plan dealing with HIRWG and NSB reports -

  • OST chartered working team –

    • Team has representation from the various interested programs (LFW, EMP, STI) and LOs (NWS, NHC, NCEP, OAR, AOML/HRD, ESRL; NESDIS pending)

    • Team contains all but ocean concerns (requested deferring their participation)

  • Water and Weather Hurricane and Related Inundation (HI) cross-cutting theme plan is starting point-

    • addresses many (but not all) HIRWG recommendations

    • HI POP provides detailed and comprehensive programmatic alternatives addressing many of the HIRWG issues

    • developed in coordination with

      • LOs: OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS

      • CEO, EMP, W+W’s LFW, Hydrology, Tsunami and STI programs

    • HI plan larger than what was adopted by STI

    • PA&E evaluated alternatives

    • PDM coming shortly Team will evaluate PPBES and other internal alternatives against known gaps and emerging organizational and intergovernmental thrusts

    • Assumes additional resources and redirection are an option


High level hirwg majority report recommendations and w w response pending pdm
High-Level HIRWG Majority Report Recommendations and W&W Response (pending PDM)

  • HWRF model enhancements (including data assimilation & ensembles)

  • Coupled ocean-atmosphere model with appropriate physics

  • Accelerate achievement of 1 km model resolution

  • Field studies to improve and evaluate models

  • Utilize radar for modeling

  • Evaluate observing strategies

  • Upper ocean observations

     Improved operations-research collaboration on modeling

     Joint Hurricane Testbed and Developmental Testbed Center

     Improve usefulness of forecasts through multidisciplinary research, including social science

     Test reduced form models

     Data archival system to make data sets available to research community

     Limit how Saffir-Simpson scale is used

     Develop a more complete suite of information

 = Fully or Partially Addressed in Program Plan  = Included in Above Core = Not Addressed


Alternatives
Alternatives Response (pending PDM)

  • Status Quo is a scattering of plans addressing hurricane intensity forecasting and research-

    • Pro: each office/planning activity states its vision

    • Con: lack of coherence, resource conflict, less coordination

    • Risk: High failure probability

    • Fiscal ramifications: Potential duplication of effort

  • Proposed Alternative: Produce unified NOAA Response Action Plan-

    • Pro: coherent and unifying; far-reaching; high-visibility; end-to-end; consistent with PPBES framework; metrics; may reduce duplication

    • Con: compromises will be required

    • Risk: TBD

    • Fiscal ramifications: may require additional resources and potential capability modification; farther reaching than PPBES temporally


Coordination nep council views
Coordination & NEP/Council Views Response (pending PDM)

  • Coordination with:

    • NWS, OAR

    • PPBES/W+W, STI, LFW, CEO (later)

  • NEP/Council Views TBD:

    • NEP

    • CFO Council (required for any recommendation that costs money)

    • Other Relevant Council(s)


Output
Output Response (pending PDM)

  • Provide response strategy to HIRWG and NSB reports for briefing at the Fall07 SAB meeting

  • Potential Unified NOAA Hurricane Intensity Action Plan

    • Addresses and assesses HIWRG and NSB reports

    • Consolidates and guides relevant cross-NOAA activities


Recommendation
Recommendation Response (pending PDM)

  • Endorse the proposed strategy and team composition


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