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Greg Mandt NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology 01 Feb 07

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NOAA’s response strategy to the Hurricane Iintensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations. Greg Mandt NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology 01 Feb 07. 11-Jan-07 DRAFT 1. Outline. Purpose Issue Background & Discussion

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NOAA’s response strategy to the Hurricane Iintensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) and related recommendations

Greg Mandt

NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology

01 Feb 07

11-Jan-07 DRAFT 1

  • Purpose
  • Issue
  • Background & Discussion
  • Alternatives
  • Coordination and Views
  • Output
  • Recommendation
  • Inform the NEP about the HIWRG and NSB reports -
  • Solicit NEP feedback on proposed strategy to formulate a NOAA response to satisfy request for a final briefing at the Fall 07 SAB
    • e.g., Constraints on the response?
  • NOAA SAB chartered the High Intensity Working Group (HIRWG) to recommend how can NOAA further improve and advance hurricane intensity forecasting
  • NOAA Research Council tasked W/OST with preparing a response to the recommendations in the HIRWG and related reports
background discussion
Background & Discussion
  • HIWRG issued final reports Jun06-
    • Majority report – 29 recomendations
    • Minority report – 7 recommendations
    • NOAA offices provided informal feedback to earlier version but NOAA has no formal response yet
  • National Science Board (NSB) report Nov06 Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative –
    • NSF Ratification expected soon (10Feb07)
    • NSB briefed NOAA SAB
    • Proposes creation of multi-agency National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI) to implement general recommendations
    • Proposed bipartisan legislation [Sen. Martínez (FL)] makes NSF and NOAA the NHRI’s lead agencies
    • Four major investment themes call for $300M additional funding along with prioritized recommendations
proposed strategy
Proposed Strategy
  • Evaluate the recommendations in the various NOAA plans, identify gaps, and issue NOAA action plan dealing with HIRWG and NSB reports -
  • OST chartered working team –
    • Team has representation from the various interested programs (LFW, EMP, STI) and LOs (NWS, NHC, NCEP, OAR, AOML/HRD, ESRL; NESDIS pending)
    • Team contains all but ocean concerns (requested deferring their participation)
  • Water and Weather Hurricane and Related Inundation (HI) cross-cutting theme plan is starting point-
    • addresses many (but not all) HIRWG recommendations
    • HI POP provides detailed and comprehensive programmatic alternatives addressing many of the HIRWG issues
    • developed in coordination with
      • LOs: OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS
      • CEO, EMP, W+W’s LFW, Hydrology, Tsunami and STI programs
    • HI plan larger than what was adopted by STI
    • PA&E evaluated alternatives
    • PDM coming shortly Team will evaluate PPBES and other internal alternatives against known gaps and emerging organizational and intergovernmental thrusts
    • Assumes additional resources and redirection are an option
high level hirwg majority report recommendations and w w response pending pdm
High-Level HIRWG Majority Report Recommendations and W&W Response (pending PDM)
  • HWRF model enhancements (including data assimilation & ensembles)
  • Coupled ocean-atmosphere model with appropriate physics
  • Accelerate achievement of 1 km model resolution
  • Field studies to improve and evaluate models
  • Utilize radar for modeling
  • Evaluate observing strategies
  • Upper ocean observations

 Improved operations-research collaboration on modeling

 Joint Hurricane Testbed and Developmental Testbed Center

 Improve usefulness of forecasts through multidisciplinary research, including social science

 Test reduced form models

 Data archival system to make data sets available to research community

 Limit how Saffir-Simpson scale is used

 Develop a more complete suite of information

 = Fully or Partially Addressed in Program Plan  = Included in Above Core = Not Addressed

  • Status Quo is a scattering of plans addressing hurricane intensity forecasting and research-
    • Pro: each office/planning activity states its vision
    • Con: lack of coherence, resource conflict, less coordination
    • Risk: High failure probability
    • Fiscal ramifications: Potential duplication of effort
  • Proposed Alternative: Produce unified NOAA Response Action Plan-
    • Pro: coherent and unifying; far-reaching; high-visibility; end-to-end; consistent with PPBES framework; metrics; may reduce duplication
    • Con: compromises will be required
    • Risk: TBD
    • Fiscal ramifications: may require additional resources and potential capability modification; farther reaching than PPBES temporally
coordination nep council views
Coordination & NEP/Council Views
  • Coordination with:
    • NWS, OAR
    • PPBES/W+W, STI, LFW, CEO (later)
  • NEP/Council Views TBD:
    • NEP
    • CFO Council (required for any recommendation that costs money)
    • Other Relevant Council(s)
  • Provide response strategy to HIRWG and NSB reports for briefing at the Fall07 SAB meeting
  • Potential Unified NOAA Hurricane Intensity Action Plan
    • Addresses and assesses HIWRG and NSB reports
    • Consolidates and guides relevant cross-NOAA activities
  • Endorse the proposed strategy and team composition