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Quantitative approaches

Quantitative approaches. The quest for numbers…. … and the problems it leads to. Why is it difficult?. D ebates on controversies over the concept and very definition of environmental migration But similar controversies with regard to refugees Intra-national movements

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Quantitative approaches

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  1. Quantitative approaches

  2. The quest for numbers…

  3. … and the problems it leads to

  4. Why is it difficult? • Debates on controversies over the concept and very definition of environmental migration • But similarcontroversieswith regard to refugees • Intra-national movements • Confusion between the number of people living in affected regions and the number of migrants • Rooted in a deterministic perspective • Uncertainties about the impacts of climate change • Importance of the timeframe • Are we talking about cumulative migrations/displacements?

  5. What do we have so far? • Annualestimates of people displaced by disasters (IDMC) • A few statistical analyses inferences • Example: Feng, Krueger and Oppenheimer on Mexico-US migration (PNAS 2010) • And evenfewer multi-level analyses • Example: Henry et al. on Burkina Faso (2004)

  6. How to move forward? • Set the right framework • Agree on the typology and definition • Re-scalepredictions • Is there a need for a global figure? • Whichlevel of warming? • Explore new methods

  7. New methods • Multi-level analysis • One of the most robust methods • Combines different methods on different levels • Household surveys • Time-series • Allows for the monitoring of migration trends over longer periods of time • Multi-variate models • Agent-based modeling

  8. An exemple of multi-variate model (Ginnetti and Frank 2013)

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