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Key Themes from Point Topic Tim Johnson www.point-topic.com Barriers to Broadband Workshop 1 February 2005. Key themes. Broadband stays on course UK, Western Europe, World A good year for the UK How to bridge the gaps and barriers Triple play solutions are in demand

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Key themes from point topic tim johnson point topic

Key Themes from Point Topic

Tim Johnsonwww.point-topic.com

Barriers to Broadband Workshop1 February 2005


Key themes

Key themes

  • Broadband stays on course

    • UK, Western Europe, World

  • A good year for the UK

  • How to bridge the gaps and barriers

  • Triple play solutions are in demand

  • Winners and losers for next-generation broadband

www.point-topic.com


Broadband stays on course

Broadband stays on course


136m broadband lines worldwide at 30 september 2004

136m broadband lines worldwide at 30 September 2004

Million lines

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

www.point-topic.com


Broadband lines worldwide

Broadband lines worldwide

www.point-topic.com


Broadband lines in western europe

Broadband lines in Western Europe

www.point-topic.com


Broadband lines in the uk

Broadband lines in the UK

www.point-topic.com


Broadband penetration levels still vary widely

Broadband penetration levels still vary widely

www.point-topic.com


Penetration levels in major countries are converging

Penetration levels in major countries are converging

www.point-topic.com


Share of broadband lines by technology q3 2004

Share of broadband lines by technology Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

www.point-topic.com


Share of broadband lines by technology q2 2004

Share of broadband lines by technology Q2 2004

Source: Point Topic Q1 2004

www.point-topic.com


Broadband is growing faster than mobile did world

Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (World)

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com


Broadband is growing faster than mobile did uk

Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (UK)

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com


A good year for the uk

A good year for the UK


Top ten broadband countries by number of lines q204 q304

Top Ten broadband countries by number of lines: Q204 - Q304

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

www.point-topic.com


Top ten broadband countries by penetration q3 2004

Top Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population

www.point-topic.com


Second ten broadband countries by penetration q3 2004

Second Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population

www.point-topic.com


The uk has been growing faster than western europe

The UK has been growing faster than Western Europe

Source: Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com


Uk fourth in dsl but gaining

UK fourth in DSL, but gaining

www.point-topic.com


Uk third in broadband and also gaining

UK third in broadband, and also gaining

www.point-topic.com


Uk second in broadband penetration first in 2005

UK second in broadband penetration; first in 2005?

www.point-topic.com


Bt has the smallest share of the retail broadband market in the eu

BT has the smallest share of the retail broadband market in the EU

Source: ECTA, Point Topic

www.point-topic.com


A tale of two telcos dsl competition in france and uk

A tale of two telcos: DSL competition in France and UK

Source: ECTA

www.point-topic.com


Bridging the gaps

Bridging the gaps


The geographical divide an easy problem

The geographical divide: an “easy” problem

  • Improved technical solutions

    • new DSLAMs, rate adaptation etc

    • lower equipment costs

    • remote concentrators

  • Changed installation policies

    • lower trigger levels

    • more “can do” approach

  • Targeted investment

    • costs can be low compared with added value and social benefit

www.point-topic.com


The social divide a tough problem

The social divide: a tough problem

  • Multiple barriers to Internet and broadband take-up

    • Old people less than young people

    • Partly-educated people less than fully-educated people

    • Women less than men (but the difference is dissolving)

    • Poor people less than rich people

  • Take-up facing a 60% ceiling?

    • even in Korea only 66% of people use the Internet

    • most major countries see similar levels

    • but take-up at 80% and beyond in Scandinavia

www.point-topic.com


Uk broadband has been growing fast so far

UK broadband has been growing fast so far

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

www.point-topic.com


Uk broadband could crash into the ceiling soon

UK broadband could crash into the ceiling soon

www.point-topic.com


Bbc ideas to spread digital inclusion

BBC ideas to spread “digital inclusion”

  • “Provide a compelling reason to get a broadband connection”

  • iMP Interactive Media Player

    • using the Internet as a PVR

  • Digital literacy campaign - with others?

  • Radical reductions in the cost of access

    • low-cost access devices

    • “pay as you go” subscription model

www.point-topic.com


The business gap issues

The business gap: issues

  • Workplace penetration is very different from firm (SME) penetration

    • real penetration is much lower than statistics suggest

  • Progress of business-quality DSL is slow

    • barely 10% of business broadband lines - and falling?

  • Broadband take-up by business has been static for several years

    • but signs of an uptick in 2004, at least in the UK

www.point-topic.com


Workplace based views show much lower levels of take up

Workplace-based views show much lower levels of take-up

Source: Point Topic estimates

www.point-topic.com


Business quality dsl is growing only slowly

Business-quality DSL is growing only slowly

Source: Point Topic

www.point-topic.com


After years of stagnation internet trading is growing

After years of stagnation, Internet trading is growing

Source: DTI International Benchmarking Study 2004

www.point-topic.com


Triple play trailblazers

Triple-play trailblazers


Trailblazer isps

ISP

Country

Value-added offering

Bell Canada

Canada

Security services for residential and business customers

Catch Communications

Norway

Business-focused ISP that aims to make VPNs cheaper and simpler

FastWeb

Italy

Strong video and TV element in a triple-play bundle

Free

France

Voice-over-IP as part of residential triple-play bundles

SingTel

Singapore

Turbo button to boost download speeds

Sprint

USA

Bundled DSL, telephone and mobile offering to retain customers and maintain revenue

Trailblazer ISPs

www.point-topic.com


Video over broadband pillar of strategy or bottomless pit

Video over Broadband: pillar of strategy or bottomless pit?

  • Making the business case is an uphill battle

    • competition, content, technology, opportunity

  • Sharp upturn in trials and services 2003-2004

    • about 50 projects identified worldwide

  • Good results where there is weak competition

    • disappointments where it is strong

www.point-topic.com


How much contribution is broadband video making

How much contribution is broadband video making?

www.point-topic.com


The year when voip erupted

The year when VoIP erupted

  • Yahoo Broadband Japan still by far the biggest

    • over 4m subscribers

    • next five have only 1m between them

  • Over 1,000 other providers up and running

  • Increasingly led by the desire to offer triple-play

    • pure-play VoIP fading, relatively

    • Skype and imitators settling in a (big) niche?

www.point-topic.com


Some major voip players were well established by mid 2004

Some major VoIP players were well established by mid-2004

Source: Point Topic; figures mid-2004

www.point-topic.com


The telcos are frightened but the barriers to voip are high

The telcos are frightened, but the barriers to VoIP are high

  • Major VoIP successes depend on high local tariffs

  • Price-based competition is vulnerable to price cutting by big players

  • Customers are not yet convinced about VoIP quality and reliability

  • A disruptive technology - but regulators are only just starting to tackle the issues, such as numbering

  • VoIP operators proving slow to leverage the opportunity of interconnection

www.point-topic.com


Technology options

Technology options


Contents

Contents

  • VDSL and VDSL2

  • ADSL2+

  • Symmetric DSL

www.point-topic.com


Original vdsl a technology going nowhere

Original VDSL: a technology going nowhere?

  • Big in Asia-Pacific

    • mainly distributing FTTB inside MTUs

    • 2.2m lines in Korea alone - but levelling off

    • large numbers in China (6m?) and Japan

  • Very little public network VDSL

    • old projects not being extended

    • few new ones identified (Belgium, Norway, Slovenia)

    • “substantially all” shipments into FTTB buildouts

  • www.point-topic.com


    Will vdsl2 be different

    Will VDSL2 be different?

    • Standard on a fast track?

      • first ratification Q3 2005; base standard soon after

      • driven by the US RBOCs; compromises to get agreement

  • Delivering 30Mbps up to 1.8km - eventually

  • What RBOCs need to offer full triple play?

    • two HiDef TV channels + data + VoIP

  • “A major technology in N. America in 2006”

    • Ramen Cohen, Metalink

  • Too disruptive for Europe?

  • www.point-topic.com


    Adsl2 the right technology at the right time

    ADSL2+: the right technology at the right time?

    • Downstream speeds enough for realistic applications

    • Better range than original VDSL

    • Easier to integrate into an ADSL world

    • Annex J supports business symmetry requirement

    www.point-topic.com


    Leading edge operators moving rapidly into adsl2

    Leading-edge operators moving rapidly into ADSL2+

    • Sweden and Norway

      • 60,000 ADSL2+ ports by end-2004

  • Free (France)

    • migrating 1m customers to ADSL2+ “FreeBox”

    • 6Mbps downstream for Euro 30/month

  • Wanadoo (Netherlands)

    • 8Mbps/1Mbps for Euro88/month

  • BellSouth (USA)

    • will use ADSL2+ to trial a video offering

  • www.point-topic.com


    Symmetric dsl many choices slow take up

    Symmetric DSL: many choices, slow take-up

    • SDSL

      • proprietary, mainly USA

    • SHDSL

      • ITU standard, industrial strength, still a niche

    • Symmetrical ADSLs

      • ADSL2+ Annex J could be the preferred choice

    • VDSL

      • some business offerings in special situations?

    www.point-topic.com


    1 2m symmetric dsl lines worldwide by end 2004

    1.2m Symmetric DSL lines worldwide by end-2004

    Source: Point Topic

    www.point-topic.com


    Signs of stronger growth in future

    Signs of stronger growth in future

    • Some uptick in business broadband in 2004

    • Arrival of ADSL2+ should make symmetric broadband cheaper and easier

    • SHDSL still has technical advantages

    • IP VPN more recognised as the unifying platform for business applications

    • IP-over-Ethernet seen as the coming technology

    www.point-topic.com


    Key themes from point topic tim johnson point topic

    Tim Johnson

    www.point-topic.com

    [email protected]+44 (0) 20 7551 9260

    www.point-topic.com


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