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Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event

Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event. Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/Space Environment Center. MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004. Collaborators. Nick Arge – AFRL, Hanscom, MA Chris Hood – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

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Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event

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  1. Heliospheric MHD Modeling of the May 12, 1997 Event Dusan Odstrcil University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/Space Environment Center MURI Meeting, UCB/SSL, Berkeley, CA, March 1-3, 2004

  2. Collaborators • Nick Arge – AFRL, Hanscom, MA • Chris Hood – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO • Rob Markel – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO • Leslie Mayer – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO • Vic Pizzo – NOAA/SEC, Boulder, CO • Pete Riley – SAIC, San Diego, CA • Marek Vandas – Astronomical Institute, Prague, Czech Republic • Xuepu Zhao – Stanford University, Standford, CA

  3. Ambient Solar Wind Models CU/CIRES-NOAA/SEC 3-D solar wind model based on potential and current-sheet source surface empirical models SAIC 3-D MHD steady state coronal model based on photospheric field maps [ SAIC maps – Pete Riley ] [ WSA maps – Nick Arge ]

  4. CME Cone Model Best fitting for May 12, 1997 halo CME • latitude: N3.0 • longitude: W1.0 • angular width: 50 deg • velocity:650 km/s at 24 Rs (14:15 UT) • acceleration: 18.5 m/s2 [ Zhao et al., 2001 ]

  5. Boundary Conditions Ambient Solar Wind + Plasma Cloud Ambient Solar Wind

  6. Latitudinal Distortion of ICME Shape ICME propagates into bi-modal solar wind

  7. Evolution of Density Structure ICME propagates into the enhanced density of a streamer belt flow

  8. Synthetic White-Light Imaging

  9. Interplanetary Disturbances

  10. Evolution of Parameters at Earth

  11. May 12, 1997 – Interplanetary Shock Distribution of parameters in equatorial plane Evolution of velocity on Sun-Earth line 0.2 AU 0.4 AU 0.6 AU 0.8 AU • Shock propagates in a fast stream and • merges with its leading edge 1.0 AU

  12. Case A1 Case A3 [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ] Fast-Stream Position Ambient state before the CME launch Disturbed state during the CME launch Ambient state after the CME launch

  13. [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ] Effect of Fast-Stream Position Case A1 Case A3 Earth : Interaction region followed by shock and CME (not observed) Earth : Shock and CME (observed but 3-day shift is too large)

  14. Streamer-Belt Disruption?

  15. Case A2 Case B2 [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ] Fast-Stream Evolution Ambient state before the CME launch Disturbed state during the CME launch Ambient state after the CME launch

  16. [ SAIC maps -- Pete Riley ] Effect of Fast-Stream Evolution Case A2 Case B2 Earth : Interaction region followed by shock and CME (not observed) Earth : Shock and CME (observed but shock front is radial)

  17. Case A2 Case B2 [ WSA maps -- Nick Arge ] Fast-Stream Evolution Ambient state before the CME launch Disturbed state during the CME launch Ambient state after the CME launch

  18. [ WSA maps – Nick Arge ] Effect of Fast-Stream Evolution Case A2 Case B2 Earth : Interaction region followed by shock and CME (not observed) Earth : Shock and CME (observed but shock front is radial)

  19. [ WSA maps – Nick Arge ] Daily-Updated Synoptic Maps Evolving velocity structure at 21.5 Rs due to changes in photospheric field

  20. [ 3D force-free model – Marek Vandas ] Magnetic Flux Rope Toroidal structure emerges into computational domain

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