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(C2) EPS perspectives

2009.05.12-15 1st TRCG Technical Forum. (C2) EPS perspectives. “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA”. Takuya KOMORI 1 Kiyotomi SATO 1 , Hitoshi YONEHARA 1 and Tetsuo NAKAZAWA 2 1: Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

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(C2) EPS perspectives

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  1. 2009.05.12-15 1st TRCG Technical Forum (C2) EPS perspectives “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA” Takuya KOMORI 1 Kiyotomi SATO1, Hitoshi YONEHARA1 and Tetsuo NAKAZAWA2 1: Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 2: Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute

  2. My Lectures in 1st TRCG Technical Forum 12 May (Tue) • (B1) EPS design, objectives and interpretation • “Why we need Ensemble Prediction System for TC forecasts?” • (C2) EPS perspectives • “Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA” • (B2) Application for TC forecasts • “How to use the products of JMA Ensemble Prediction System?” 13 May (Wed) 14 May (Thu) “Please feel free to ask me a question at any time in the lectures.”

  3. Contents • TIGGE Project • Provision of EPS GPV • How to get and use TIGGE data? • Provision of Tropical Cyclone Data • How to get and use CXML (Cyclone XML) data? • Case study from EPS Perspective • Myanmar Cyclone Nargis • Additional Case Studies • Typhoon Fengshen • Typhoon Hagupit • Typhoon Sinlaku

  4. “What is TIGGE project?”

  5. Background of THORPEX • TIGGE is an acronym for “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble“. • THORPEX is a WMO global atmospheric research program designed to: • Advance knowledge of global-to-regional influences on weather systems to lead to improved forecast performance • Accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week forecasts for high-impact weather, • Contribute to the development of GIFS (the Global Interactive Forecast System), etc. THORPEX : The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment World Weather Research Programme of WMO

  6. TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble ) TIGGE is a framework under THORPEX for international collaboration in development and testing of ensemble prediction systems. Ensemble forecast data is collected in near real-time from many operational centers. Data providers （10 center) BOM, CMA, CPTEC, ECMWF,JMA, KMA, Meteo-France, CMC, NCEP,UKMO

  7. TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble ) • Design structure of TIGGE data set considering potential scientific research and possible real-time applications: • Compare initial condition methods (SV, BGM, EnKF, …) • Compare multi-model and perturbed physics • Develop products ( ways to combine ensembles) • Boundary conditions for regional ensembles • Regime-dependence of ensemble configuration (size, resolution, composition) • Observation targeting (case selection) • Societal and economic impact assessment

  8. Condition of Use of TIGGE Data • The datasets available on this server are provided freely for Research and Education purposes. Before retrieving data please read the conditions below and acknowledge that you accept them. • Registration will provide you with access to the TIGGE data with a delay of 48 hours after initial time of the forecasts. • Registration for real-time access is handled by the THORPEX Project Office. http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/d/license/tigge/

  9. TIGGE Data Set Definition • Pressure Level Parameters(1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250 and 200 hPa) • Geopotential height, Specific humidity, Temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity • In addition geopotential height is provided at 50 hPa. • Potential Temperature Level Parameters (320K ) • Potential vorticity • Potential Vorticity Level Parameters （2PVU） • Potential temperature U-velocity, V-velocity • Single level(32 parameters) • 10 meter u-velocity, 10 meter v-velocity, Psea,CAPE, CIN, Field capacity, Surface pressure Land-sea mask, Orography, Skin temperature, Soil moisture, Soil temperature, Wilting point Snow depth water equivalent, Snow fall water equivalent,Sunshine duration Surface air dew point temperature, Surface air maximum temperature, Surface air minimum temperature, Surface air temperature, OLR, surface latent heat flux, surface net solar radiation, surface net thermal radiation, surface sensible heat flux,Total cloud cover, Total column water, Total precipitation The kind of data and the release time actually provided are different in each center.

  10. TIGGE Data Set Totally 259 members for each forecast time http://dss.ucar.edu/download/tigge/tiggedocumentation.pdf

  11. JMA’s Provision of EPS GPV Data for TIGGE • JMA provides GPV of One-Week EPS (WEPS) operations once a day (12UTC). • This provision was started on September 25, 2006. • New parameters were added and the forecast time interval of all parameters were set to 6 hours on March 20, 2007. • 60 of the 77 requested parameters are currently provided.

  12. Specification of JMA One-Week EPS TIGGE PERIOD

  13. List of available parameters of One-Week EPS Surface parameters Pressure level parameters Potential T/Vor level parameters Forecast time : 216 hours Grid interval : 1.25 degree Number of Member : 51

  14. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data Multi-Center Grand Ensemble (Initial Time: 2008.09.20 12UTC) Initial T+3days T+6days T+9days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  15. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data Initial JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  16. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+1day JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  17. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+2days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  18. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+3days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  19. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+4days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  20. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+5days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  21. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+6days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  22. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+7days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  23. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+8days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  24. A Sample Work Using TIGGE Data T+9days JMA, ECMWF,UKMO, NCEP, CMC, KMA, CMA, BOM, CPTEC Total members: more than 200

  25. Comparison of Control Forecasts SST T850 RAIN OLR To use TIGGE data for the development of model-ensemble method, we are monitoring control forecast of each center.

  26. “How to get TIGGE GPV data?”

  27. TIGGE Data Portals ECMWF portal http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/NCAR portal http://tigge.ucar.edu/CMA portal http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/ The TIGGE data is available from the following 3 portals: CMA ECMWF NCAR Users can use TIGGE data through web interfaces under the condition of use.

  28. First, click this link create session cookie Usage of the ECMWF Data Portal

  29. Select Level and type of forecast

  30. Start and end date Center ＆base time Forecast time

  31. Push button! parameters

  32. Select area Select grid Select area and grid Push!

  33. “What is CXML data?”

  34. CXML (Cyclone XML) Data: Motivation • To facilitate easy exchange of information, a standard format to represent analyzed and forecast data for tropical and extra-tropical cyclones is proposed. • The new format, called Cyclone XML (CXML) is descriptive and human-legible, making it easy for all human users and most automated applications to read. http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/CXML/index.html CXML data • CXML data include information of multiple storms as following; • Analysis, • Forecasts of Deterministic NWP Model, • Forecasts of EPS

  35. JMA’s Provision of CXML Data • CXML Data for western North Pacific provided by JMA includes - GSM (Deterministic Forecast Model), - One-Week EPS, - Typhoon EPS. • Provision of the data was started on 1 August 2008 for T-PARC1. 1) T-PARC is an international research projects implemented under THORPEX.

  36. Download of CXML Data http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/TC/index.html CXML providers have their own web interfaces to download the data.

  37. CXML Data Archive Website CXML data are also available at the Research Data Archives at NCAR: http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3/ Click “DATA ACCESS”

  38. CXML Data Archive Website Sign in, or register your information

  39. CXML Data Archive Website Click “Internet Download”, and users can choose CXML provider and initial times.

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