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Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability @ EcoLead

Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability @ EcoLead. Itaru Yasui , Prof. Prof.Emeritus , U of Tokyo Former Vice Rector, United Nation University President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation http://www.yasuienv.net/.

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Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability @ EcoLead

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  1. Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability@EcoLead ItaruYasui, Prof. Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo Former Vice Rector, United Nation University President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation http://www.yasuienv.net/

  2. Bankruptcy of the Earth~Limit to Growth in 21st century 持続不可能な 地球の限界 と未来像 • Published December in 2012 • To provide information to have an insightinto non-sustainable future of the Earth • AuthorItaru YASUI • Coauthors, 8 researchers below, • SeitaEmori NIESHiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of TokyoAyakoSonodaCre-en, PresidentKoumeiHalada NIMSMiki BabaNikkei EcologyJunichi Fujino NIESYuuichiMoriguchiUniv. of Tokyo Hiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. Yokohama

  3. What is your evaluation in 21st Century? 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious, 2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable 個人的な評価を書いてみて下さい • Climate Change/Extreme Whether • Loss of Biological Diversity • Depletion of Metal Resources • Depletion of Fossil Fuel • Explosion of Population/Food Issues • Environmental Pollution Issues • Not Enough Budget to Handle Issues

  4. Chapter1.Local Bankruptcy地域の破綻& Global Sustainability地球の持続可能性

  5. Coral Reef? Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2 ナウル共和国

  6. Guano in Nauruナウル産グアノ •  Guano manure is an effectivefertilizerdue to its high levels of phosphorusand nitrogen and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure.

  7. Guano Depleted in Republic of Nauru枯渇したナウルのグアノ • 2 million tons every year • Amount decreased from 1989 • 100 million tons of guano mined • High income & No income tax • Free electricity • Free medical care and free education fee • No cooking, always eat outside • Laborers mainly from China • Economy 100% dependence on export • Started to Deplete from 2000 • Job less rate 90%No intention to work 失業率９０％　働く意思なし　　

  8. 2012Drought in USAカンサス州の干ばつ

  9. East Part of Kansas, USA

  10. West Part of Kansas, USA Center Pivot Irrigation 回転式散水機

  11. Ogallala Aquifer, USAオガララ帯水層 “Fossil Water” 化石水 Water from 2 to 6 million years ago Ogallala Aquifer, Grate Planes, USA 　＋ 　＋　＋ ＋ Recharge Speed by rain << Extraction Speed

  12. It is difficult to say, “Yes, they are OK. Because USA farmers are different from people in Nauru.”

  13. Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People淡水不足　数億人 Biosphere may become net carbon source 植物圏が二酸化炭素排出原因に　湿性熱帯林 Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place 食料事情は地域にまばら 30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost 湿原が失われる 0 1 2 3 4 deg C

  14. Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise Sea Level Rise ～7meters in 1000 years or more 氷床の溶解で海面上昇 １０００年間で～７ｍ Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007)

  15. Other Expression of Tipping Points Tipping Point =Recovery Force Becomes Zero θ 人間活動の圧力 人間 活動 の 圧力 地球の復元力 Recovery Force of the Earth Energy Pressure By Human Activities θ 0 TP 90

  16. Temperature – History 1000years Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere Little Glacier Mann et al. (2008)より 小氷期の温度もそれほど違わない Little Glacier:Temperature differences were not so Big!

  17. Trends in Living Planet Index ＝脊椎動物の減少

  18. Loss of BiodiversityClimate Change　⇒　Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae)　⇒　Extinction of Species 種の寿命　１０００万年 • A typical species becomes extinct within 10 million years of its first appearance • Human Beings may last 5～9m Years or more • Global Scale Extinction EventsWhenScale • Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg) ～66 Ma75% • Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J) ～201 Ma half • Permian–Triassic (P–Tr) ～252 Ma 96% Marine • Late Devonian (Late D) ～374 Ma half • Ordovician–Silurian (O-S) ～450 Ma 60% Marine 中生代白亜紀－新生代古第三紀 中生代三畳紀－中生代ジュラ紀 古生代ペルム紀－三畳紀 古生代デボン紀後期 古生代オルドビス紀－シルル紀

  19. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanerozoic 属 の 数 千 五大絶滅 脊椎動物亜門哺乳綱獣亜綱食肉目ネコ亜目ネコ科ネコ属 Vertebrata Mammalia TheriaCanivoraFeliformiaFelidaeFelis チーター属、レオパード属、オオヤマネコ属、ピューマ属、ヒョウ属、他に１２属 Acinonyx, Leopardus, Lynx, Puma, Panthera、12 Others

  20. Numbers of Species (in thousand)　　　　生物種の数 　　　菌・カビ 　節足動物 原生動物 線虫 植物 擬軟体 甲殻類 脊椎動物 昆虫・多足類

  21. Speed of Extinction １０００年間で１０００種の生物種のうち絶滅する数

  22. Global Scale Depletion ofUnderground Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel

  23. Recent Trend: Price goes up! 過剰流動性 投機資金 Probably because of Excessive liquidity Commodity Price Indices Food Raw Materials Energy Metals and Minerals 1990

  24. By 2050 all reserve will be used By 2050 twice of reserve be used By 2050 exceed reserve base Old Metals ＝漢字がある Estimated Use Accumulated Reserve Base Reserve Already Mined 原田幸明氏提供

  25. Degradation of Ore Grades Australia（％Cu） Australia（％Ni） Canda（％Cu） Canada（％Ni） USA（％Cu） Ore Grades of Ni and Cu Mines（1885-2010） Cu Ni 0.3% 森口祐一氏提供

  26. Env. Burden Ranking byTMR = Cu >Fe >Au >Al > Ni Others Zn U Rh Pt Pd Sn Ni Al Au Fe Cu TMR = Total Material Requirement 有用な資源を採掘する結果発生する廃土・廃岩石の量 Weight of Mine Waste Accompaniedby Mineral Extraction

  27. 土地の改変 Area Converted Developed Countries Forests in Developing Countries From MA =Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (UN 2001~2005) ~1950 1950~1990 ~2050

  28. 石油資源はなかなか枯渇しない　気候変動防止の視点→　多すぎる石油資源はなかなか枯渇しない　気候変動防止の視点→　多すぎる We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH. Price $/barrel Ultra Deep 1500m～ Ice Sea Shale Oil Deep Ocean 300~1500m E O R Heavy Other Used Midle East Reserves in Billion Barrel Reservesvs. Cost for Oil Production

  29. UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100２ “Megachange: The world in 2050” The Economist High Medium Ours Low “2052” by JorgenRanders

  30. Projected Population of Regions up to 2100 Asia Inflection Point 変曲点 To be Flat Africa Follow the Asian Trend 50 yearsbehind North America

  31. Fertility Rate is important 出生率が大きな要素 Asia Africa LatinAmerica Oceania North America Europe

  32. Chapter 2.Local Sustainability under the influence ofClimate Change

  33. Typhoon No.30 HaiyanHit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines ２５日 ０９時 ２０日 １２時 ２２日 ０９時

  34. World Economic Forum　ダボス会議Global Risks 2013Eighth Edition • Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal, Geopolitical, Economic, Technologicaland Environmental • 10 risks from each field • Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years from now • AnImportant Point＝Cognitive Biases 　　　　「認知バイアス」 • Difficult to Overcome • Inevitable to overcome somehow

  35. Environmental

  36. Impact 4 3.5 気候変動適応策 温室効果ガス 濃度の上昇 異常気象頻発 対策不能な環境汚染 土地と水路の無謀な改変 抗生剤の効かない病原菌 Likelihood 3 3.5 4

  37. IPCCAR5WGⅠ Relation between CO2 Emission vs. Temp. Anomaly 温度上昇は累積のCO2放出量と比例

  38. Allowance of 放出可能な残り予算 Integrated Assessment Model Best Available Scenario？ IPCCAR5WGⅠ

  39. CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuelfor 2050 and 2100 • Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃ • Delay of some TippingElements • In order to this, with 9 B of population • In 205010 GtC/yearGlobally • Per capita emission 1.1 ｔC/year/capita • In 21004 GtC/year Globally • Per capita emission 0.25ｔC/year/capita ２１００年 一人 あたり 放出量 現在の １／１０ cf. Currenly in Japan2.7ｔC/year/capita

  40. Chapter 3. Local Risks Agricultural Activities and Related Risks

  41. Environmental Risks for Agriculture • Environmental Conditions for Agriculture • Water supply・Temperature Change水・温度 • Essential ElementsN, P, Others元素 • Status of Soil　土壌　　　　　　　　　　農薬 • Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide • Genetically Modified Organisms 遺伝子組換 • Environmental Changes to be considered • Change accompanied by Climate Change • Limitation of Natural Resources資源限界 • Water/Soil Change caused by Human Activities • Feelings of Consumers 消費者　　水・土の変化

  42. Amount of Stream Flow=Fresh Water 2081 to 2100 From IPCC AR5 2013 河川流量＝淡水量 DRY

  43. Issues in Locations • Location and Availability of Water • Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change • Ground Water has different Characteristics • Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry. • In Japan, not so much difference. • Temperature will affect most of suitable agri. products. 農作物の地域への適性・不適正　特産物 • Special Products in the area will be affected. • Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano? • Grapes and Wineries in Europe already receive some changes. Germany will be the best place?ドイツ産? In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required. 何らかの適応策が必須

  44. Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier - High Mountains 山岳地帯農業 • Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir • In spring, water from snow melt used for agriculture • Climate Change -> Early snow melting in winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture • This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean Area • Adaptation : To construct new water reservoirs for Agriculture 雪は貯水池 春には水不足 ヒマラヤ・チベット アンデスも 貯水池建設は必須

  45. Fragility is highin water supply in High Mountains ≒　2℃ ≒　５℃ Important to keep less than 2 degree 2℃程度以下に抑えたい

  46. 肥料の問題 窒素肥料 ハーバーボッシュ法 Fertilizer Issue • Nitrogen Fertilizer • Harbor-Bosch Process’ success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen • Huge Energy Consumption • More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption • Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization • Pollutant to Underground Water • Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake and River Water • Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from Patty Fields • MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer 地下水汚染 富栄養化 一酸化二窒素＝温室効果ガス

  47. 20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収（単位面積当たりの収穫量）の増加にあるフランスの小麦　出展 Michel & FAO チリ硝石の代替 第一次世界大戦 川島博之氏提供

  48. So called global population explosion depended onthe increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha). French Wheat　出展 Michel & FAO 単収の増加は５倍 川島博之氏提供

  49. リン肥 リン酸という物質 Phosphorous Fertilizer • P as Phosphate • Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids. • Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growth • P : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance. • F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.13 in the scale of natural abundance. 核酸・細胞膜脂質 Pは多く存在 フッ素は有害物

  50. Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17 １位　酸素　　　　　　Oxygen４６％ ２位　ケイ素　　　　　Silicon２８％ ３位　アルミニウム　　Aluminum８％ ４位　鉄　　　　　　　　 Iron５％ ５位　カルシウム　　　Calcium４％ ６位　ナトリウム　　　　Sodium３％ ７位　カリウム　　　　　Potassium２％ ８位　マグネシウム　　Magnesium２％ ９位　チタン　　　　　　 Titanium ０．５％ １０位　水素　　　　　　Hydrogen ０．１５％ １１位　リン　　　　　　Phosphorus０．１％ １２位　マンガン　　　　Manganese ０．１％ １３位　フッ素　　　　　 Fluorine ０．１％ １４位　バリウム　　　　Barium ０．０５％ １５位　炭素　　　　　　 Carbon ０．０３％ １６位　ストロンチウム Strontium０．０３％ １７位　イオウ　　　　　 Sulfur ０．０３％

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