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Application of Confidence Intervals to Text-based Social Network Construction

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### Application of Confidence Intervals to Text-based Social Network Construction

By

CDT Julie Jorgensen, 06, G4

Advisors: MAJ Ian McCulloh, D/MATH

LTC John Graham, D/BS&L

Agenda

- The Real-World Problem
- Text Analysis/Social Network Analysis Solution
- Social Network Analysis
- Simple Text Analysis
- A Better Solution
- Themed Analysis
- Example Case – Jihadist Texts
- Theme Scores
- Network Construction Procedure
- Jihadist Network
- Results
- Importance and Conclusions

The Real-World Problem

- Commanders need to understand “Human Terrain”
- Majority of ‘HT’ information is in text form
- The Combating Terrorism Center receives volumes of data every day.
- Harmony Database is being rapidly declassified
- Need an efficient way to plow through large amounts of text data and see the linkages.
- Solution: Text Analysis Displayed in Social Network Analysis

Social Network Analysis

- A mathematical method of quantifying connections between individuals or groups and drawing conclusions from those connections
- Assumes rational beings are interdependent
- Nodes
- Key Actors
- Links
- Relationships between Nodes

Iraq Elections

Barzani Khamenei

Demonstration Data Set:Jihadist Texts

- Approx. 250 translated texts
- MEMRI
- FBIS
- Other Sources
- 15 Authors
- More than 1 text
- Not well known

Simple Text Analysis: The Plagiarism Check

Problem

- Word matching is overly simple.
- Ignores context
- Actors can be overly weighted by writing more

Alternative: Themed Analysis

- Traditional Network Analysis Methods
- Citation Analysis
- Physical Network
- Communication or Financial Network
- Themed Analysis
- Relates nodes across multiple fields
- One similar theme versus many similar themes

Theme Scores

- Problem
- Commander needs information in representations he/she understands.
- Networks can compare authors across single themes
- But difficult to compare authors across multiple themes

*Theme Score is the sum of each word’s score per text

Constructing a Network Across Multiple Themes

- Scrub Texts
- Construct Theme Scores
- Construct Confidence Intervals
- Discern Similarity between Nodes
- Binary or Standardized Difference of Means
- Create Square Matrix
- Draw Network

*why not ANOVA?

Confidence Intervals

- 95% Confidence Interval =
- Each Author, Each Theme
- Example:

Relationship Scores

- Each possible pair of authors per theme
- Overlapping Confidence Intervals
- Disparate Confidence Intervals

Matrix Construction

- Multiplication of Scores for each author and each theme

Geometric Mean =

- Resultant Square Matrix

Theme Analysis: Confidence Interval vs Average

- Able to look at each theme individually.
- Average Rank does not account for connections importance, weighting, predictors

- Themes are combined
- Can see connections between authors across a combination of themes.

Conclusions

- Socially Engineered Algorithms involve extensive tradeoffs and decisions by the mathematician that can significantly impact commander’s decision-making.
- Multiple views of the same data is a critical requirement.
- Find Linkages in large amounts of data
- Find Connections across multiple fields
- Non-Tangible Relationships
- Real World: Track / Catch criminals / radical ideologues
- Representation of Human Terrain

Future Work

- Publish method in Journal of Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory
- Integration into ORA (Organizational Risk Analysis) Statistical Software: In use by Intelligence Analysts.
- Analysis of change over time

References

- Dr. Jaret Brachman. Combating Terrorism Center, USMA.
- Dr. Steven Corman. Hugh Downs School of Human Communication, Arizona State University.
- http://www.checkpoint-online.ch/CheckPoint/Images/N-HusseinCapture.jpg
- http://www.salmac.co.za/profile-writing-arabic.gif
- Wasserman, Stanley and Katherine Faust. Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994, 4.

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