Highest confidence forecasts
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Highest Confidence Forecasts. Model agreement NGM=WRF=AVN Run-to-run changes (dMod/dt) very small Models trending toward agreement Example: OLD run: WRF=AVN but *not* NGM NEW run: NGM trends toward WRF & AVN Models have current weather “in hand”

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Highest Confidence Forecasts

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Highest confidence forecasts

Highest Confidence Forecasts

  • Model agreement

    • NGM=WRF=AVN

  • Run-to-run changes (dMod/dt) very small

  • Models trending toward agreement

    • Example:

      • OLD run: WRF=AVN but *not* NGM

      • NEW run: NGM trends toward WRF & AVN

  • Models have current weather “in hand”

  • Parameterized processes not significant part of feature


Lowest confidence forecasts

Lowest Confidence Forecasts

  • Large model disagreement

    • NGM, WRF, AVN all have different solutions

  • Run-to-run changes (dMod/dt) large

  • Don’t have current weather “in hand”

  • Parameterized processes significant part of feature


When models disagree

When models disagree …..

  • In a 12-36 hr. fcst, lean toward model/s that has “best” handle on current weather!

  • Lean toward a model whose run-to-run change is small, especially if other models are trending toward it

  • Lean away from a model if it is showing its bias!

  • Take consensus!


When models disagree1

When models disagree …..

AVN

Rainfall forecast:

Cape Canaveral, FL

Postpone a launch?

ETA

NGM


When models disagree2

When models disagree …..

AVN

15Z RADAR

ETA

Which model do you go with?

NGM

KJAX 141756Z 33008KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC010 15/15 A3013 60086


Model trend single model

MODEL TREND: Single Model

Is the Trend a useful forecast technique?


Model trend single model1

MODEL TREND: Single Model

Is the Trend a useful forecast technique?


Model trend single model2

MODEL TREND: Single Model

Is trend any help at all in this case?


Model trend single model3

MODEL TREND: Single Model

  • LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST

  • Average of each forecast valid at same time

  • “Poor man’s” Ensemble


Model trend

MODEL TREND

Trending toward New York City?


Model trend1

MODEL TREND

Trend can cause problems…look for at least 3 consecutive runs of the trend


Model trend2

MODEL TREND


Interpreting model trends what s legitimate

Interpreting Model Trends: What’s Legitimate ??

  • Least significant if associated with “parameterized” situation

  • 3-model run trend stronger signal than 2-model trend

  • Hierarchy of model run-to-run trends

    • 24 ->12 hours most significant

    • 60-> 48 hours least significant


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

MOST CONFIDENT!


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement1

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

TRENDING TOWARD AGREEMENT


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement2

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

TRENDING TOWARD AGREEMENT


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement3

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

TRENDING TOWARD AGREEMENT


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement4

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

TRENDING TOWARD AGREEMENT


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement5

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

TRENDING TOWARD AGREEMENT


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement6

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

What’s a forecaster to do? Suggestions???


Model confidence utilizing trend agreement7

MODEL CONFIDENCE: Utilizing Trend & Agreement

LEAST CONFIDENT!


Ensemble forecasts

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

  • What are ENSEMBLE FORECASTS?

    • Model’s initial conditions are perturbed

    • Variety of solutions occur


Ensemble forecasts1

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

THESE ARE THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE

- Negative and Positive tweaks

ONE MODEL … MANY TWEAKS


Ensemble forecasts2

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

EACH MEMBER IS RUN OUT IN TIME

- Provides “unique” solution


Ensemble forecasts3

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

ENSEMBLE MEAN IS “most likely” SOLUTION averaged over ALL cases


Ensemble forecasts4

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

HOW CONFIDENT ARE WE IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN?


Ensemble forecasts5

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

IS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN more likely than the CLUSTERS?


Ensemble forecasts6

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

MEM 1

ENSEMBLE

MEAN

MEM 2

Which solution is LEAST likely?


Ensemble forecasts another approach

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS: Another Approach

THESE ARE DIFFERENT MODELS

- ETA, AVN, NGM, MM5, EUR, MRF, UKM, CMC

MANY MODELS … MANY DIFFERENT “PHYSICS” & IC


Ensemble forecasts7

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS

What’s the better approach?


Ensemble forecasts8

ENSEMBLE FORECASTS

Many “perturbations”, Many People

Many “perturbations”, One YOU

What’s the better approach?


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