ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
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ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO. C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002. C-CIARN Mission.

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Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO

C-CIARN – ONTARIO

DECEMBER 5, 2002


C ciarn mission

C-CIARN Mission

The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

C-CIARN Structure

C-CIARN Board

Advisory Committee

Private Sector

NGOs

Universities

Federal

Depts.

Steering Committee

Communities

Prov/Terr

agencies

Atlantic (Office at Dalhousie U., Halifax)

Quebec (Office at Ouranos, Montreal)

Prairies(Office at PARC, U. of Regina)

National C-CIARN Coordinating Office

Landscape Hazards(Office at GSC Ottawa)

Ontario(Office at Laurentian U, Sudbury)

Forest (Office at CFS Edmonton)

Fisheries (Office at DFO Nanaimo)

Coastal Zone(Office at BIO Dartmouth)

North (Office at Northern Climate Exchange, Whitehorse)

Health (Office at HC Ottawa)

Water Resources (Office at McGill U., Montreal)

British Columbia(Office at UBC, Vancouver)

Yukon

NWT

Nunavut

Agriculture (Office at U. of Guelph)

Sectors

Regions


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Communities in Ontario

258 communities with population > 1,000

Range in size from 1,005 to 1.56M

13 communities>100,000

7 communities50,000 – 99,000

37 communities 10,000 – 49,900

201 communities1,000 – 9,999

Stats Canada, 2001 census

Large urban centres, medium-sized cities, towns and rural communities will vary in both the climate change challenges they will face AND their capacity to address those challenges


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

2010-2030with respect to 1975-1995

500

3000 km

0

2040-2060with respect to 1975-1995

2080-2100with respect to 1975-1995

Long Term Temperature Changes

Average Temperature, with the Canadian model[scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)]

(Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2010-2030

Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model

Some increased winter

precipitation over

Ontario

More rain – less snow


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100

Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model

Changed summer

precipitation

- droughts

- food production

Also

- changes in extremes


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Great Lakes Water Levels

Current & Projected Ranges

1 metre drop

in lake level

possible

184

177

175

183.5

X

X

X

176

X

174

75.5

183

175

X

X

173

X

74.5

182.5

Lake Superior

174

172

Lakes Michigan-Huron

73.5

Lake Erie

X

72.5

X Average, 1918-1998

Lake Ontario

X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Droughts and Low Water Levels

  • severe drought 1997-99

  • low lake levels; beached harbours

  • groundwater supply concerns

  • some years comparable to 1930s; worse than 1960s


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Impacts on Agriculture

Positive

Negative

  • Changes

  • warmer temperatures

  • drier or wetter

  • increased frequency of extreme events

  • enhanced atmospheric CO2

Increased productivity from warmer temps and enhanced CO2

Longer growing seasons

Accelerated maturation rates

Possibility of growing new crops

Increased insect infestations

Crop damage from extreme heat

Increased moisture stress and drought

Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy

Increased soil erosion


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

AdaptationPurpose

Crop DevelopmentBreed new varieties and hybrids to copwith changes in climate and environment

Crop SelectionTo take advantage of crops that potentially suited to the new conditions such as a longer growing season

Farm Production PracticesDiversify crop and livestock types and varieties.

Land UseLocate crops and livestock in Ontario to suit the environmental variations and economic risks


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

AdaptationPurpose

Shorten rotation lengths where appropriate

Harvest chronically stressed stands of low vigour and slower growth rates that are susceptible to insect and disease

Plant drought -adapted species and genotypes

Regenerate drought-prone habitats with deeply-rooted species; select and breed drought-tolerant genotypes

Plant climate - adapted species

Introduce southern species beyond recent northern range limits when temperature averages and extremes have warmed sufficiently


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Assess current vulnerability

Use experience to

assess impacts and

damages

Project future conditions

Climate / environment

Socioeconomic

Policy and development

Adaptation Process

Understanding Vulnerability

Engage stakeholders

Those affected

Key decision makers

Develop / implement

appropriate policies / practices


Adapting to the impacts of climate change in ontario

Climate Impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands


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