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November 12–16, 2008

ShakeOut Earthquake Surface Rupture of the San Andreas Fault: Impacts on Critical Lifeline Infrastructure Ken Hudnut, Lucy Jones, Brad Aagaard, Dan Ponti (USGS), Rob Graves (URS), Mike Reichle, Jerry Treiman (CGS) and Keith Porter (Univ. Colorado). November 12–16, 2008.

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November 12–16, 2008

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  1. ShakeOut Earthquake Surface Rupture of the San Andreas Fault:Impacts on Critical Lifeline InfrastructureKen Hudnut, Lucy Jones, Brad Aagaard, Dan Ponti (USGS),Rob Graves (URS), Mike Reichle, Jerry Treiman (CGS) andKeith Porter (Univ. Colorado) November 12–16, 2008 12 November 2008 International Earthquake Conference Los Angeles, California

  2. Scenario Development • USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) • Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist • Dale Cox, Project Manager • Sue Perry, Staff Scientist • Key Partnerships and a Large Collaboration • 10 Section Leaders • Earth and Computer Science • Ken Hudnut, USGS • Dan Ponti, USGS • Mike Reichle, CGS • Engineering • Keith Porter, EERI • Hope Seligson, MMI Engineering • Public Health • Kim Shoaf, UCLA • Disaster Sociology • Dennis Mileti, Seismic Safety Commission • Jim Goltz, Governor’s Office of Emergency Services • Disaster Economics • Anne Wein, USGS • Richard Bernknopf, USGS • More than 300 Panelists, Experts, Special Studies • Download reports at urbanearth.usgs.gov

  3. Fault Rupture - Large Offsets examples: ~3 m Lake Hughes ~4 m ~2-3 m 9 m Bombay Beach Salton Sea Landers, California M 7.3 - 1992 earthquake ~1 meter (3 feet) offset Wairarapa fault, New Zealand - M 8.2 1855 earthquake 18.7 meter (~61 feet) right-lateral offset

  4. Calculate Wave Propagation • Compare with1994 Northridgeearthquake: • 50x smaller • Magnitude 6.7 • 57 deaths • $40 billion • Compare with2008 Chino Hillsearthquake: • 5000x smaller! • Magnitude 5.4 • 0 deaths • Minimal damage Bakersfield LosAngeles Palm Springs

  5. Courtesy of Rob Graves (SCEC-URS) and Brad Aagaard, USGS

  6. Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault crossings I-10 I-10 I-5 I-15 Rt. 14 Rt. 62

  7. Cajon Pass lifelines

  8. Courtesy of Rob Graves (SCEC-URS) and Brad Aagaard, USGS

  9. "Good science, when applied in the way that the people of Alaska have done,made the difference between an emergency and a tragedy."Charles Groat, Director, United States Geological SurveyEach day, the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline carries one million barrels of oil, about 17% of the domestic oil supply for the United States, valued at about $25 million. If the pipeline had ruptured during the 2002 Denali earthquake, the lost revenue and cost of repair and environmental cleanup would have been incalculable. M 7.9 - similar to the anticipated San Andreas fault 'Big One'

  10. Courtesy of Gary Fuis, USGS

  11. Fault Crossing Design Zone SS-RL: 20 ft(6.1 m) V: 5 ft (1.5 m) TAPS Pipeline Denali Fault Crossing and Richardson Highway Denali Fault Rupture Zone SS-RL: 12.9 ft (3.9 m) V: 2.5 ft (0.75 m) Bucky Tart Courtesy of Cluff & Slemmons

  12. Policy points ShakeOut long-term economic impact is strongly influenced by efficient restoration of lifelines Aging co-located critical lifeline infrastructure is a recognized seismic vulnerability, but retrofitting to current standards is not required… so it’s not done Assess seismic threat to existing critical lifelines Review existing codes and best practice in design Explore cost-effective retrofit options Plan and prioritize, then retrofit existing lines where necessary… with how much regulation?

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