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Socio-Economic Scenarios. Roberto Roson University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP Richard S.J. Tol Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities. RT7 Team. FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW Richard Tol FEEM, Venice Roberto Roson CIRED, Paris Jean-Charles Hourcade IIASA, Vienna Brian O‘Neill

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Socio economic scenarios

Socio-Economic Scenarios

Roberto Roson

University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP

Richard S.J. Tol

Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities


Rt7 team
RT7 Team

  • FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW

    • Richard Tol

  • FEEM, Venice

    • Roberto Roson

  • CIRED, Paris

    • Jean-Charles Hourcade

  • IIASA, Vienna

    • Brian O‘Neill

  • RIVM, Utrecht

    • Tom Kram

  • CICERO, Oslo

    • Asbjorn Aaheim

  • LSHTM, London

    • Sari Kovats


Tasks
Tasks

  • Ensembles of emissions scenarios

  • Ensembles of emission reduction scenarios

  • Scenarios of land use and adaptive capacity

  • Feedback of climate change on emissions scenarios through impacts of climate change on economy and human health

  • Towards the construction of the economic component of an earth system model


Emissions scenarios
Emissions scenarios

  • Events have overtaken this task

  • GCMs have started running the SRES scenarios, and there have always been ensembles of scenarios available

  • We can extend this in the light of the recent critique on SRES and IPCC and recent model developments

  • We can add a fifth, politically incorrect scenario

  • But only if you intend to run it ...


Emissions scenarios1
Emissions scenarios

ENSEMBLES Objective

Needed


Emission reduction scenarios
Emission reduction scenarios

  • USDoE, EMF and ENSEMBLES RT7 decided to join forces in developing emission reduction scenarios

  • Emission reduction scenarios need to specify four things

    • No control scenario (SRES)

    • Stabilisation target (450, 550, 650, 750 ppm CO2, CO2eq, rad. forc., temperature)

    • Reduction target allocation over space and time

    • Implementation

  • Aim is to find a small, representative number of cases


Land use
Land use

  • Run IIASA and RIVM models for the above scenarios

  • Work towards LPJ - Land use

    Adaptive capacity

  • Is needed for impacts

  • Add further detail to the population and economic drivers of the emissions scenarios


Conventional scenario based analyses
Conventional, scenario-based analyses…

emissions

Climate

systems

Socio-economic

systems


Conventional scenario based analyses1
Conventional, scenario-based analyses…

emissions

Climate

systems

Socio-economic

systems

…miss one important feedback!


Assessing the economic impact of climate change some key concepts
Assessing the economic impact of climate change:some key concepts

  • Multiplicity of effects

    • e.g., sea level, health, tourism, energy demand, water availability, extreme events, land use, agricultural productivity…

  • Market interdependence

    • General equilibrium

    • Computable general equilibrium models (CGE)


Computable general equilibrium models pros and cons
Computable General Equilibrium Models:Pros and Cons

  • + a unifying framework for the consistent analysis of heterogeneous impacts;

  • + a widely accepted assessment tool;

  • + general-purpose and flexible;

  • - data demanding;

  • - rarely used on long-term horizons;

  • - national accounting, market based parameter estimation;

  • - calibrated, cannot readily take into account non observable technologies.


Simulation experiments of climate change impacts
Simulation experiments of climate change impacts


Some further remarks
Some further remarks

  • Others, more significant impacts

  • Dynamics


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