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Socio-Economic Scenarios. Roberto Roson University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP Richard S.J. Tol Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities. RT7 Team. FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW Richard Tol FEEM, Venice Roberto Roson CIRED, Paris Jean-Charles Hourcade IIASA, Vienna Brian O‘Neill

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socio economic scenarios

Socio-Economic Scenarios

Roberto Roson

University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP

Richard S.J. Tol

Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities

rt7 team
RT7 Team
  • FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW
    • Richard Tol
  • FEEM, Venice
    • Roberto Roson
  • CIRED, Paris
    • Jean-Charles Hourcade
  • IIASA, Vienna
    • Brian O‘Neill
  • RIVM, Utrecht
    • Tom Kram
  • CICERO, Oslo
    • Asbjorn Aaheim
  • LSHTM, London
    • Sari Kovats
tasks
Tasks
  • Ensembles of emissions scenarios
  • Ensembles of emission reduction scenarios
  • Scenarios of land use and adaptive capacity
  • Feedback of climate change on emissions scenarios through impacts of climate change on economy and human health
  • Towards the construction of the economic component of an earth system model
emissions scenarios
Emissions scenarios
  • Events have overtaken this task
  • GCMs have started running the SRES scenarios, and there have always been ensembles of scenarios available
  • We can extend this in the light of the recent critique on SRES and IPCC and recent model developments
  • We can add a fifth, politically incorrect scenario
  • But only if you intend to run it ...
emissions scenarios1
Emissions scenarios

ENSEMBLES Objective

Needed

emission reduction scenarios
Emission reduction scenarios
  • USDoE, EMF and ENSEMBLES RT7 decided to join forces in developing emission reduction scenarios
  • Emission reduction scenarios need to specify four things
    • No control scenario (SRES)
    • Stabilisation target (450, 550, 650, 750 ppm CO2, CO2eq, rad. forc., temperature)
    • Reduction target allocation over space and time
    • Implementation
  • Aim is to find a small, representative number of cases
land use
Land use
  • Run IIASA and RIVM models for the above scenarios
  • Work towards LPJ - Land use

Adaptive capacity

  • Is needed for impacts
  • Add further detail to the population and economic drivers of the emissions scenarios
conventional scenario based analyses
Conventional, scenario-based analyses…

emissions

Climate

systems

Socio-economic

systems

conventional scenario based analyses1
Conventional, scenario-based analyses…

emissions

Climate

systems

Socio-economic

systems

…miss one important feedback!

assessing the economic impact of climate change some key concepts
Assessing the economic impact of climate change:some key concepts
  • Multiplicity of effects
    • e.g., sea level, health, tourism, energy demand, water availability, extreme events, land use, agricultural productivity…
  • Market interdependence
    • General equilibrium
    • Computable general equilibrium models (CGE)
computable general equilibrium models pros and cons
Computable General Equilibrium Models:Pros and Cons
  • + a unifying framework for the consistent analysis of heterogeneous impacts;
  • + a widely accepted assessment tool;
  • + general-purpose and flexible;
  • - data demanding;
  • - rarely used on long-term horizons;
  • - national accounting, market based parameter estimation;
  • - calibrated, cannot readily take into account non observable technologies.
some further remarks
Some further remarks
  • Others, more significant impacts
  • Dynamics
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