Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective

1. Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective by Bill Wallace presented to ASCE International Conference Weston Convention Center, Pittsburgh November 5, 2008 Professional Perspectives in Addressing Climate Change ASCE International Program

2. Bill Wallace Bio Founder and President, Wallace Futures Group, LLC, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, USA Book author: Becoming Part of the Solution: The Engineer’s Guide to Sustainable Development Past-president of Engineers Without Borders–USA Member of the ASCE Committee on Sustainability Chair of the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC) Sustainable Development Committee Subcommittee Chair of ACEC Environment & Energy Committee Member of the Democratic National Convention Green Team Former Liaison Delegate to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development 21 years at CH2M HILL in various senior positions ASCE International Program

3. Summary • Engineering industry perspectives on climate change • Role of engineers in addressing climate change • Engineering industry associations have long been advocates for the engineering business • It’s time to change that role • Bridge the gaps among society, science and politics ASCE International Program

4. Addressing Climate Change in Steamboat Springs ASCE International Program

5. Scientific Certainty Argumentation Method (S.C.A.M.) • Scientific evidence for making policy decisions is always ambiguous or incomplete • “Uncertainty space” in scientific arguments creates rich opportunities for gaming the system • S.C.A.M. technique on global climate change • Demand scientific certainty • Point to contrarian studies as “proof” that uncertainty exists • Delay policy decisions and action • Extends the life of old paradigms Reference: William Freudenburg, Robert Gramling, Debre Davidson, “SCAMming environmental policy: policymakers crave certainty, but almost all science operates in shades of gray,” WorldWatch, May 1, 2008. ASCE International Program

6. Climate Changes Policies in the Engineering Industry Associations • American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) • “Carbon Balancing” • International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC) • No published policies • Reactions of individual associations • Australia: ACEA • The Netherlands: ORNI ASCE International Program

7. ORNI(Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers)President: Ed Nijpels, Former Netherlands Minister of the Environment Activities related to the consulting engineering sector as Minister • The first National Plan for the Environment in the Netherlands • The National Plan for Integrated Spatial Planning Other Activities • Chairman of the National Board to Reinforce the Building Industry • Chairman of the International Waddensea Forum • Chairman of the Climate Centre of the International Red Cross • Chairman of the Foundation Water for Life • Member of the Governmental Committee for PPP in infrastructure • Member of the Advisory Board for Delta Technology 21st Century ASCE International Program

8. Ed Nijpels, ORNI Why a Politician? Consulting Engineers Have Consulting Engineers Lack Avowed ambition Political sensibility Strong image Communication skills to claim a leadership position for improving our society • Knowledge • Capabilities • Technical skills • Organization • Position to improve living conditions in the world, But… ASCE International Program

9. Ed Nijpels, ORNI Why is a New Approach Needed? • Globalization • We live in a “Risk Society” • Relationship among society, science and politics has changed Who should be leading who? ASCE International Program

10. Ed Nijpels, ORNI Consulting Engineers Can Be That Bridge BUT… • Consulting engineers must act beyond their commission • Consulting engineers have a responsibility to do so ASCE International Program

11. Do a better job of defining the problem Develop a technology roadmap for improving sustainable performance Demand extraordinary levels of cooperation and collaboration Revise engineering curriculums to deliver the engineer required for the 21st century HOW DO WE BRIDGE THE GAP? ASCE International Program

12. Do a Better Job of Defining the Problem • Climate change as a symptom of a flawed economic development model • Need to understand the full breadth of the problems we’re dealing with • Current situation • Impacts and urgencies ASCE International Program

13. Do a better job of defining the problem Climate Change as a Symptom of a Flawed Economic Development Model • Our current model for economic development is not sustainable • Global Climate change • Leading edge of many problems to come • Many are already here! ASCE International Program

14. Do a better job of defining the problem Need to Understand the Full Breadth of the Problems We’re Dealing With • What are people and organizations doing that isn’t sustainable? • What are the consequences of continuing to be non-sustainable? • How serious and urgent are these consequences? • What needs to be done to fix them? • What does it mean to be sustainable? ASCE International Program

15. Do a better job of defining the problem Available Resources and Carrying Capacities: Current Situation Ecological overshoot Ref: Mathis Wackernagel, et. al., “Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jul 9;99(14):9266-71 Year ASCE International Program

16. Do a better job of defining the problem What it Means to be Sustainable(A Thermodynamic Definition) Renewable resources (ecological) • Use < Regeneration • Non-renewable resources (minerals, fuels) • Use < Rate of development of renewable substitutes • Pollution emissions • Emissions < Carrying capacity of the environment Herman E. Daly suggested these three operational rules defining the condition of ecological (thermodynamic) sustainability. ASCE International Program

17. Do a better job of defining the problem Understand the Impacts and Urgencies • Changes are occurring at a scope, scale and speed we never thought possible • Scope: Being felt everywhere. More serious for the poor, less resilient nations • Scale: Happening at all scales (local, regional, global) and in all sectors. • Speed: Happening faster than we ever imagined • Climate change is the leading edge of this change ASCE International Program

18. Do a better job of defining the problem Correlation of CO2 Concentration to Temperature Rise Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change CO2 Temperature ASCE International Program

19. Do a better job of defining the problem Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2007 Heat wave Low precipitation Heavy Snows Heavy Rains Drought Extreme storm Low temps Source: UNEP Year Book, 2008 ASCE International Program

20. ASCE International Program

21. Develop a Technology Road Map Develop a Technology Roadmap for Improving Sustainable Performance • Response to climate change is most urgent • Adaptation, mitigation • Working at the project level isn’t sufficient • We owe it to society to challenge unsound, politically-motivated initiatives, e.g., corn-based ethanol • The engineering community has that the requisite knowledge and experience • Knows what works or can work • Also technology gaps • Can team with the scientific community to set research priorities, agendas ASCE International Program

22. Develop a Technology Road Map 1.6 1.4 Number of Earths Used by Humanity 1.2 1.0 Number of Earths Available Number of Earths 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Today 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Path Forward Projections Development and application of more sustainable technologies Target pathway Opportunities for innovation ASCE International Program

23. Develop a Technology Road Map Technology Roadmap Outline • Subject areas (framework) • Desired end state • Schedule for achieving this end state • Urgencies, deadlines • "Wild cards” • Critical technologies • Gaps in technology • Framework conditions • Actions to take, in priority order • Resource implications • Alternative scenarios, strategies, approaches ASCE International Program

24. Demand cooperation and collaboration Demand Extraordinary Levels of Cooperation and Collaboration • Requirements for addressing global climate change • Cooperation and collaboration by all of society to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Good Luck! • Problem: “The Tragedy of the Commons”* *"The Tragedy of the Commons," Garrett Hardin, Science, 162(1968):1243-1248. ASCE International Program

25. Revise Engineering Curriculums Revise Engineering Curriculums to Deliver the Engineer Required for the 21st Century • Provide meaning and context to engineering education • Development of globally aware and internationally responsible engineers, students, and professionals. • “Engineering Education 3.0” ASCE International Program

26. Revise Engineering Curriculums “Engineering Education 3.0” • 1.0 Age of attrition • Solving engineering puzzles out of context • Engineering is not for slackers! • 2.0 Age of competition • Puzzles plus practicum • Design contests, mostly single discipline focused • Engineering can be fun! • 3.0 Age of contribution • Puzzles in context • How engineering contributes to quality of life • Engineering has significance! ASCE International Program

27. Closing Remarks ASCE International Program

28. Thank You! Contact information: Bill Wallace, A.M. ASCE Member, ASCE Committee on Sustainability Wallace Futures Group, LLC +1(970)879-1122 bill.wallace@wallacefutures.com ASCE International Program