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Joint SA-SEAP Ozone Officers Network Meeting Pattaya, Thailand 15-18 October 2012 CHALLENGES FOR HCFC PHASE-OUT IN AIR CONDITIONING

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Joint SA-SEAP Ozone Officers Network Meeting Pattaya, Thailand 15-18 October 2012 CHALLENGES FOR HCFC PHASE-OUT IN AIR CONDITIONING. BACKGROUND HCFC phase-out in developing countries has started. Short/medium term targets: Freeze in 2013, 10% reductions from 2015, 35% reductions from 2020.

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slide1

Joint SA-SEAP Ozone Officers Network Meeting

Pattaya, Thailand

15-18 October 2012

CHALLENGES FOR HCFC PHASE-OUT

IN AIR CONDITIONING

slide2

BACKGROUND

  • HCFC phase-out in developing countries has started. Short/medium term targets: Freeze in 2013, 10% reductions from 2015, 35% reductions from 2020.
  • HCFC-22 is the predominant refrigerant used in air- conditioners in developing countries
  • Consumption of HCFC-22 in manufacturing and servicing of air-conditioners in major developing countries is significant (typically >70% of total HCFC consumption) and growing rapidly
slide3

MARKET FOR AIR-CONDITIONERS

  • Market for air-conditioners growing rapidly in developing countries – low baseline market penetration
  • Estimated HCFC-22 based room air-conditioner sales (2011) in key developing countries in Asia-Pacific:
slide4

MARKET FOR AIR CONDITIONERS (CONT’D)

  • By 2020, market for air-conditioners in Asia-Pacific could reach >100 million units and sales >US$ 20 billion
  • By 2025, ~1 billion city dwellers will “enter the global consuming class”: an air-conditioner would be their first purchase*
  • Most booming cities are in tropical climates
  • Refrigerant charge volumes for new air-conditioners sold in Asia-Pacific (developing countries in 2011) estimated at ~50,000 metric tonnes annually(!)
  • ____________________________
  • * McKinsey Global Initiative
slide5

ENERGY USE

  • Electricity use for air conditioning in some cities with tropical weather:
  • Bangkok, Thailand – 60%
  • Delhi, India – 55%
  • Miami, USA – 40%
  • Mumbai, India – 50%
  • And the list goes on …….
  • Electricity use for air conditioning at the national level can range from <5% (temperate zones) to over 80% (some tropical/equatorial island states)
slide6

DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMISSIONS

  • Global air-conditioner population is estimated at about 500 million to 1 billion (and growing)!!
  • Use HCFCs or HFCs as refrigerants, both high GWP gases
  • Each air-conditioner contains average 1-1.5 kg of refrigerant and has 1.5 to 4 kw connected electrical load
  • Annual direct and indirect CO2 emissions from air conditioners globally, could be between 1 to 4 gt (1 to 4 billion CO2-eq tonnes)!!!
slide12

TECHNOLOGY

  • Need for lifecycle management approach in technology selection
  • Manufacturing
  • Use
  • End of Life
slide13

TECHNOLOGY

  • MOP Decision XIX/6 urges maximizing climate benefits when phasing out HCFCs
  • Lifecycle CO2 emissions from air-conditioners are 60-95% indirect and 5-40% direct. In developing countries direct emissions are higher due to local conditions
  • Both energy use and refrigerant GWP are critical considerations to maximize climate benefits
  • Currently there is no perfect alternative for HCFC-22. HFC and HC candidates involve compromises and trade-offs
slide14

TECHNOLOGY (CONT’D)

  • R-410A (GWP = 2,088*) has been the preferred alternative in developed country markets since ~2000.
  • Population of air-conditioners with R-410A is already about 200 million (Dec 2010), mostly in developed countries: about 200,000 metric tonnes of R-410A in banks and increasing!
  • R-410A energy-efficiency performance in general and in high-ambient conditions in particular
  • Is R-410A a sustainable alternative for minimizing adverse climate impacts?
  • ____________________________
  • * IPCC 4th Assessment Report
slide15

KEY ISSUES AND CONCERNS

  • Reducing HCFC-22 consumption in developing countries without clear technology and policy signals, will result in unintended and adverse climate impacts
  • For example, if developing countries prohibit HCFC-22 based air-conditioners (manufacturing and imports), automatic technology choice is likely to be R-410A.
  • Major developed-country technology providers showing preference for R-410A (e.g. R&D focus on optimizing R-410 systems and components, new products based on R-410A etc.)
slide16

KEY ISSUES AND CONCERNS

  • Significant expansion of HFC production facilities
  • Extensive introduction of high-GWP technologies will lead to rapid increase in population of air-conditioners in developing countries, based on these technologies
  • Considering prospective developing country markets by 2020, the net climate impact of HCFC phase-out with high-GWP technology, is most likely to be negative!
  • A better, more forward-looking and climate-conscious approach to alternatives is needed!
slide17

WAY FORWARD

  • What can industry do?
  • Introduce and promote low-GWP, energy-efficient alternatives (R-32, R-290, others) on priority
  • Support sustained R&D for new, better and safer molecules for substituting HCFC-22, as well as optimized components (e.g. compressors).
  • Cooperate with MP panels and implementing agencies for sharing and disseminating latest technologies (e.g. demonstration projects, technology workshops)
slide18

WAY FORWARD

  • What can developing country governments do?
  • Support incentives for better alternatives
  • Support policies that ensure level playing field for the industry players
  • Involve industry in formulation of policies and regulations
  • Support targeted and clear regulations that take into account GWP and energy efficiency
slide19

WHAT WE ARE DOING

MLF

FUNDING

Maximum climate impact

Direct Emission Reductions (low-GWP alternatives)

Montreal Protocol Measures (HCFC Phase-out)

GEF/

BILATERAL/

PRIVATE-SECTOR

FUNDING

Indirect Emission Reductions (EE improvements)

Design interventions with dual objectives of

ozone and climate protection

slide20

THANK YOU!

Comments, suggestions and questions welcome

http://www.undp.org/chemicals/montrealprotocol.htm

[email protected]

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