Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel
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Carolina Vera CIMA/Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sci. (UBA-CONICET) Co-Chair WCRP/CLIVAR/VAMOS Panel PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Carolina Vera CIMA/Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sci. (UBA-CONICET) Co-Chair WCRP/CLIVAR/VAMOS Panel. The Monsoon Systems of the Americas in the context of climate change. A WCRP/CLIVAR program focused on the climate of the Americas. Now in its implementation phase Panel Co-Chairs:

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Carolina Vera CIMA/Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sci. (UBA-CONICET) Co-Chair WCRP/CLIVAR/VAMOS Panel

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Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Carolina Vera CIMA/Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sci. (UBA-CONICET)Co-Chair WCRP/CLIVAR/VAMOS Panel

The Monsoon Systems

of the Americas in the context of climate change


V ariability of the a merican mo nsoon s ystems

  • A WCRP/CLIVAR program focused on the climate of the Americas.

  • Now in its implementation phase

  • Panel Co-Chairs:

  • C. Vera (UBA, Argentina)

  • W. Higgins (NOAA/CPC, USA)

Variability of the American Monsoon Systems

WHAT ARE NAME and MESA?

The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA) are two internationally coordinated efforts that aim to improve the description, simulation and prediction of the American monsoon systems, their variability, and roles in the global water cycle.


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Program (WCRP)

CLIVAR Mission

To observe, simulate and predict Earth’’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live.

http://www.clivar.org


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Monsoon mature phase

Climatological seasonal mean precipitation (shaded), 200-hPa streamlines (black contours) & vertically integrated moisture fluxes (arrows)


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

How well do models reproduce the annual cycle?

Black: Observed, Purple: ensemble mean Light blue: individual members

Annual Cycle of Precipitation

9-member ensemble run of the CPTEC/COLA AGCMforced by observed global SST anomalies for 1982–1991 (Marengo et al. 2003, Clim. Dyn.)


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

How well do models reproduce interannual variability?

Black: Observed, Purple: ensemble mean Light blue: individual members

Interannual variability of Precipitation anomalies

9-member ensemble run of the CPTEC/COLA AGCMforced by observed global SST anomalies for 1982–1991 (Marengo et al. 2003, Clim. Dyn.)


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

VAMOS Approach

  • Climate models have deficiencies in reproducing regional climate features (diurnal cycle, transient variability, etc.)

  • VAMOS seeks improved understanding of the key physical processes (diurnal cycle, convection, topography, etc.) that must be parameterized for improved simulation with dynamical models.

  • VAMOS modeling activities include: data assimilation, global and regional AGCM, CGCM, seasonal forecasts, hydrological models, etc.

  • VAMOS employs a multi-scale approach ranging from diurnal to interannual timescales and longer.


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Diurnal cycle

NAMS

SAMS

21Z ~ 18 LST

21Z ~ 14 LST


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

South American Low-Level Jet Experiment

PIBALS

Radiosondes

NOAA/P-3 Missions

Enhanced precipitation gauge network


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

NAME HYPOTHESIS:

The NAMS provides a physical

basis for determining the degree

of predictability of warm season

precipitation over the region.

  • The NAME 2004 Field Campaign (on going) is an unprecedented opportunity to gather extensive atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface observations in the core region of the North American Monsoon over NW Mexico, SW United States, and adjacent oceanic areas.


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Diurnal cycle

Wet-day hourly rain rates for various elevation bands in the SMO from the NAME Event Raingauge Network (NERN)

Time of Maximum hourly precipitation frequency from NERN

Gochis et al. 2003


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Mesoscale Variability

05Z ~ 02 LST

MCS mature stage time occurrence frequency during SALLJEX. Bars in green represent the period November 15 to December 31, in black January 1 to February 15 (Zipser et al. 2004)

Subtropical South America has the largest fractional contribution of PFs with MCSs to rainfall of anywhere on earth between 36 N and 36 S (Courtesy Nesbitt & Zipser)


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Intraseasonal Variability

H

H

H

L

L

L

+ T. anom

- T. anom

- T. anom

+ T. anom

Typical circulation features of the SAMS accompany wet and dry conditions over Southeastern South America (e.g. Diaz and Aceituno 2003)

Typical circulation features of the NAMS accompany wet and dry surges keyed to Yuma, AZ.

(Higgins et al. 2004)


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Intraseasonal Variability (MJO)

Composite evolution of 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies associated with MJO events and points of origin of tropical disturbances that developed into hurricanes or typhoons.


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Interannual Variability

Role of land surface conditions

Role of SST anomalies (Doyle & Barros 2002)

Correlation coefficients between CPTEC model anomalies and observed anomalies of rainfall (Marengo et al. 2003)

Role of Large-scale circulation(Silvestri & Vera 2003)

Aerosol plume produced by biomass burning at the end of the dry season and transported to the south (Freitas et al. 2004)

PSI(200 hPa)

ND

Precipitation


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Trends

JFM precipitation trends (Liebmann et al. 2004)

River stream flow

Precipitation

SW Atlantic SSTs

Normalized annual departures of SALLJ-event annual counts


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) was established in 1992 as a joint initiative of WMO,UNEP, IOC,UNESCO, and ICSU to provide the data necessary for climate system monitoring, climate change detection and response monitoring, application to the development of national economies, and research.

X Tabatinga

X Trinidad

VAMOS Contribution to GCOS Action Plan for South America

Project Brief: Enhancement of the GUAN network in Central South America


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

VAMOS Contribution to GCOS Action Plan for South America

Project Brief: Enhancement of Sustained Surface and Subsurface observations in western Subtropical South Atlantic

Climatological mean DJF precipitation.

Red dots: locations of the Pirata Southwestern Extension

Light blue dot: location of the proposed site for an atlas buoy.


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

VAMOS future challenges

  • • To strength links between climate variability and climate change

    VAMOS  WCRP-CLIVAR/WGCM  IPCC

  • Link between climate variability and applications

  • VAMOS  START/AIACC in the Americas

  • (Big potential! Several VAMOS scientists are also AIACC Scientists already)


Carolina vera cima dept of atmos and ocean sci uba conicet co chair wcrp clivar vamos panel

Thank you!

http://www.clivar.org


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