1 / 11

Unity or Separation

Unity or Separation. A way towards an independent South ern Sudan and beyond…. Sudan 1960-2010. Gradual independence – 1956 & 2011 & ??? Special case – double colonialism Arab – Islam + British – Christian How many “Sudans”? The debate on Sudanese Identity

avon
Download Presentation

Unity or Separation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Unity or Separation A way towards an independent Southern Sudan and beyond…

  2. Sudan 1960-2010 • Gradual independence – 1956 & 2011 & ??? • Special case – double colonialism Arab – Islam + British – Christian • How many “Sudans”? • The debate on Sudanese Identity • Colonial border and policy problems – heavy weight to carry

  3. The CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) - 2005 • NCP (National Congress Party) & SPLM (Sudan’s People Liberation Movement) • John Garang’s New Sudan - How strong hope turned to mistrust? • Milestones of CPA – failed to make Unity attractive • Degradation of the Agenda: Preparation for Elections and for Referendum

  4. Elections – 11-15 April 2010 • NCP & SPLM strategic partnership - Omar al-Bashir & Salva Kiir • NCP - running from ICC - desperate search for legitimacy • SPLM – anything but the referendum • International Community - Elections did not meet international standards, BUT the CPA is more important… • Local and international observers - Harassment, arrests, intimidation of voters and observers in the North and in the South

  5. Referendum – 9 January 2011 • Preparation – too much to do… • Border demarcation – finished till November? • The “three areas” – referendum in Abyei & popular consultation in Nuba & Blue Nile • Voter registration • Resources division – oil and the river Nile • Citizenship & Cross border movement • Agreement on post-referendum arrangements

  6. Secession is unstoppable? • Who wants to stop it? • A failed state is about to be born? An argument from colonial times? • The referendum results will be a verdict not only for the past 5, but the past 55 years.

  7. Intra-South dynamics • Ethnic diversity – Dinka, Nuer, Equatorian and the others. • Cattle debates, ethnic violences, rebel commanders. • Jonglei rising? – Athor, Yauyau, who is next? • Possibility of the extension of local conflicts. • After secession: 1. Crucial importance of power sharing. 2. Simultan disarmament. 3. Police forces to balance the power of army.

  8. A new state in 2011? • Referendum or Unilateral declaration of independence – the responsibility of recognition – No Eritrea-case again! • Secession as an example? • Post-referendum arrangements. • New census to serve as a basis for power share / good governance. • New oil pipes – Lamu? • Diplomacy and Trade – turn to East Africa…

  9. Conclusions • International community to give South a chance • SPLM to give democracy a chance • Garang’s dream might not be fulfilled, but Southern Sudan has the chance now to build a state and a nation.

  10. Sudan in 2060 • Southern Sudan in East Africa? • Fragmentation of the North • Darfur (+ Nubians, Bejas…) • Real Arab-Islamic state for the Riverines? • End of violence?

  11. Thank you for your Attention! • Zoltán Illés • Corvinus University Budapest • nganaszan@yahoo.com

More Related