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by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA

HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICO. by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA. October 18th, 2006 Mexico City. *. Hydrologist Director of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A. Agriculture is a very risky economic activity.

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by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA

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  1. HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICO by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA October 18th, 2006 Mexico City * Hydrologist Director of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A.

  2. Agriculture is a very risky economic activity

  3. El Niño Southern Oscillation Climate Anomalies High inter-annual climate variability Induce high uncertainty in food production

  4. 50 Droughts Floods 23 5 Pests Wind 4 0 20 40 60 % Losses Crop losses in rain-fed agriculture of Mexico

  5. The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly modify the climate of Central America and Mexico El Niño La Niña

  6. CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS • 734 mm Neutral • 661 El Niño • 675 La Niña Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax.

  7. 20 15 10 millions 5 0 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 Year Prod (tons) Area (ha) TREND OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN MEXICO AND ENSO EVENTS El Niño La Niña

  8. REGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITY Number of Tropical Storms

  9. ENSO & HURRICANES • El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic • La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific WILMA HURRICANE Formed October 15, 2005 Dissipated October 25, 2005 Highest winds 185 mph (295 km/h) Lowest pressure 882 mbar (hPa) Lowest pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane Damages $16-20 billion USD Fatalities 22 direct, 40 indirect

  10. ENSO, HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS • 1995 Neutro • Neutro • Strong El Niño • La Niña • 1999 La Niña

  11. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1996 NEUTRAL YEAR % Dev. Avg Precip.

  12. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1997 % Dev. Avg Precip. STRONG EL NIÑO YEAR

  13. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1998 % Dev. Avg Precip. LA NIÑA YEAR

  14. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Aug-Sep-Oct, 1999 % Dev. Avg Precip. LA NIÑA YEAR

  15. Total Annual Dissipated Energy by Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic SST, 6°-18°N, 20°- 60°W PDI North Atlantic Emanuel (2005) SST = Sea Surface Temperature

  16. Northeast Pacífic North Atlantic NORTH HEMISPHERE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) Klotzbach (2006)

  17. HURRICANE ANALYSIS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA I VIII II VI III VII • EVENT CLASIFICATION • Landfall region • Category of the event • Month of occurrence • Length of records: 1960-2005 • Only landfall accounted • Total event: 460 • Events cat. 3,4,5: 191 IV V Sources of Info: NOAA, SMN, UNISYS

  18. YEARS CLASSIFICACTION BASED ON THE ENSO INDEX Japanese Meteorological Agency, SSTA 1960 - 2005

  19. AVERAGE ANNUAL HURRICANES BY REGION

  20. ATLANTIC Hurricanes per year

  21. PACIFIC Hurricanes per year

  22. MODELING HURRICANE LANDFALL Assuming that … The occurrence of one hurricane can be treated as an independent event from the occurrence of another hurricane, thus … The occurrence of hurricanes can be modeled with a Poisson distribution: e - μμx x! x = 0, 1, 2, … μ = avg annual hits Pr (X = x) = Probability of at least one hurricane = 1 - Pr (X=0)

  23. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL ALL EVENTS CATEGORY 3, 4 y 5

  24. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL, ALL CAT.

  25. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL CAT. 3, 4, 5 By ENSO Phase PROBABILITY I II III IV V VI VII VIII REGION

  26. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL Category 3, 4 y 5 Neutral Years 14.8% Like, year 2006 27.4% 67.4% 38.1% 51.3% 21.3% 49.3% March, 2006 35.6%

  27. MONTHLY PROBABILITY HURRICANE LANFALL AND RETURN PERIOD NEUTRAL

  28. ATLANTIC PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL Neutral El Niño La Niña PROBABILITY NUMBER OF HURRICANES

  29. PACIFICO PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL Neutral El Niño La Niña PROBABILITY NUMBER OF HURRICANES

  30. HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN YEAR 2006

  31. HURRICANE LANDFALL IN YEAR 2006

  32. PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN SEPTEMBER DE 2006 % Desv.

  33. ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN YEAR 2006 % Desv.

  34. ABANDON SOYBEANS FIELD DUE TO DROUGHT IN SOURTHERN TAMAULIPAS OCT, 2006

  35. CONCLUSIONS A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from hurricane impacts Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that would be subjected to summer drought. Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur drought conditions.

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