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4E1 Project Management - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

4E1 Project Management. Planning 2 Estimating and Scheduling. Key Concepts. Estimating Scheduling Gantt charts Network notations. # Best guess Upper estimate Lower estimate 1 2 3 .. 10. Exercise. Take a blank sheet of paper

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4E1 Project Management

Planning 2 Estimating and Scheduling

• Estimating

• Scheduling

• Gantt charts

• Network notations

1

2

3

..

10

Exercise

• Take a blank sheet of paper

• Divide it into five columns as follows:

There should be ten rows to write on.

• For each item, write (a) best guess and (b) upper and lower estimates that you are 90% confident of.

• Distance in miles from Moscow to Santiago (in Chile)

• Gold medals won by Finland in summer Olympics 1896-1992

• Area of Greenland in square miles

• Year the ballpoint pen was invented

• Year the HJ Heinz company was founded

• Population of Belize in 1990

• Denmark’s GNP in \$US in 1989

• Year that Louis Braille was born

• Average depth of Pacific ocean to nearest 1,000 feet

• Length in miles of the river Danube

• Distance from Moscow to Santiago is 10,118 miles

• Finland won 97 gold medals in summer Olympics 1896-1992

• The area of Greenland is 839,781 square miles

• The ballpoint pen was invented in 1938

• The HJ Heinz company was founded in 1876

• The population of Belize in 1990 was 187,000

• Denmark’s GNP in \$US in 1989 was \$105,238 million

• Louis Braille was born in 1809

• The Pacific ocean is 14,000 feet deep on average

• The river Danube is 1,770 miles long

• Internal causes

• Psychology: over-confidence, optimism, ego

• Misjudgement: inexperience, uniqueness of project

• Failure to learn from previous projects

• External pressures

• Management pressure, sales imperative

• Other causes

• Games, inadequate specifications, unclear objectives

• How many steps in this C program to convert Fahrenheit to Celsius?

#define LOWER 0

#define UPPER 300

#define STEP 20

main()

{int fahr

for (fahr=LOWER

fahr<=UPPER

fahr=fahr+STEP)

print(“%4d %6.1f\n”,fahr,

(5.0/9.0*(fahr-32))}

Experts’ Estimates

• Bases

• Experience, similar work in previous projects

• Detailed breakdown/WBS

• Heuristics e.g. function points

• Types

• Ballpark, comparative, feasibility, detailed

• Top-down vs bottom-up

• Risks

• Theoretical versus actual resource costs

• Cumulative effect of small errors

God

External Factors

Fiscal

Policy

Corporate

Strategy

Market

Conditions

Statutory

Regulations

Working factors

Supporting

Services

Technical

capability

Communications

Planning

and

Scheduling

Attitudes

and culture

Procedures

and systems

Resources

and capacity

Management

skills

Organisation

structure

Contribution to results

Time

Profit

Quality

Scheduling: Context

Henry Gantt

Implicit

dependency

Design

Purchase

materials

Overlap

Set up

Lag

Manufacture

Explicit

dependency

Test

Time

• Draw a Gantt chart for your “Gulliver Experience” project, showing only the top-level tasks (i.e. about 7 phases)

• Planning

• Project plan, agree requirements

• Outsource project

• Issue request for tenders, review proposals, award contract

• Design

• Architectural design, detailed design and blueprints, order materials

• Prepare new location, move

• Construction

• Site preparation, building, fit-out

• Establish company, hire staff, implement systems, marketing

• Add estimated durations, start and end dates, dependencies and resources

2

9

1

7

3

6

8

4

Get up

Eat breakfast

Go to college

1

2

3

4

10

20

30

Network Diagrams

• Activity on arrow

• Description

• Resources: human, other

• Work/non-work

• Duration

• Dates: earliest start, latest finish

• Dependencies: predecessors, successors

• Other constraints

3

5

2

9

1

8

4

1

1

7

4

3

2

4

5

3

6

5

8

4

6

Precedence

• Dummy task (dashed line) indicates order

• Node 4 precedes node 5

• Therefore tasks 5 and 8 cannot start until task 3 is complete

Two basic types:

• Activity on arrow (most intuitive)

• Critical Path Method (CPM)

• Critical Path Analysis (CPA)

• Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

• Activity on node (suits computers)

• Precedence diagrams (PDM)

• Rare but still used

• Method of potentials (MPM)

• Activities on circular nodes

30

Get up

10

Eat breakfast

20

Precedence Diagrams

• Not customary but can be useful

Activity FV

V

A

F

Activity BE

Activity FW

W

B

Activity CE

Activity FX

X

E

C

Activity GY

Activity DE

Y

G

D

Activity GZ

Z

Exercise

• Redraw this arrow diagram as a PDM (a) with dummy tasks and (b) without dummy tasks

FV

BE

FW

CE

FX

DE

GY

GZ

AF

FV

BE

FW

Dummy 2

CE

FX

DE

GY

GZ

Code

Activity

Description

Duration

Elapsed time

Earliest

Start Date

Latest

Start Date

Earliest

Completion

Date

Latest

Completion

Date

Resources

Assigned

Network Notations - Example 1

Networks use standard notation as follows:

Screed Floor

B1.3

D =26 Bus = 35

ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10

EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11

Res = FEB, JH

time

Latest

event time

Earliest start

time

Duration

Activity

identifier

5

10

15

25

Activity identifier and description

Resources required.

10

17

8

3

18

Earliest

event time

Latest start

time

Total float

Latest finish

time

Network Notations - Example 2

Duration

Earliest Start Time

Earliest Finish Time

14/11/06 5 15/12/06

4.2.3 Specify Hardware

3/12/06 17 18/1/05

JO’D €2,500 0%

Latest

Finish

Time

Latest

Start

Time

Budget

Resources/

Responsibility

%Complete

Total

Float

• Both used widely

• Gantt

• Simpler, easier to grasp

• Limited in ability to show dependencies

• Easily cluttered

• Networks

• Often large and complex

• Estimating

• Part science, part art

• Tools help but judgment is required

• Gantt charts

• Most basic tool; intuitive but limited

• Network (arrow/precedence) diagrams

• More powerful, less intuitive