2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

1. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’

3. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County What was the significance of Ehrlich’s 2002 victory? Was this a personal victory for Bob Ehrlich, or a general victory for the Republican Party and new policy priorities?

4. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County • Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

5. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County 2002 vs. 2006 Ehrlich drops from 51.6% to 47.7% 879,592 votes to 825,464 (-54,128) Dem rises from 813,422 to 942, 279 (+128,857) Ehrlich’s largest drop in counties that were most supportive in 2002 – down 7% from 67% to 60% in ’02 majority counties Small drop in least supportive jurisdictions – down from 29% to 27%

6. 2006 Elections: A Return to a Blue Maryland? Counties by Republican Score Strong R60+ Repscore Leans R 55-59 Rep score Contested 45-54 Rep score Leans D 40-44 Rep score Strong D 0-39 Rep score

7. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Composite Picture – 2006

8. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Trends in Party Registration - Statewide

9. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128 Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592 Democratic defections (and other party registrants): 2002 -148464 2006 - 11927

10. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Only Results

11. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

12. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Focus

13. 2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages –Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%)

14. 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race - Anne Arundel County What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4%

15. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Traits Motivating Vote for Governor Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?

16. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exceeds Party Expectations?

17. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel County Only: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Age

18. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Exit Poll: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Gender

19. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Demographics and Vote for Governor - Race

20. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Demographics: Lower income negates Ehrlich vote advantage on education Lower Income Higher Income

21. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

22. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

23. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More Voting Quirks: Republicans dominate absentee/provisional ballots

24. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Results

25. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Only: Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party (short form) More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

26. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Changes in County Executive Vote from Governor by Partisanship

27. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

28. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Candidates: Issues and Traits Issues and the Vote for County Executive Traits and the Vote for County Executive

29. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Executive Vote and Demographics Age/Education and County Executive Vote vs. Governor Vote

30. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate

31. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County County Council: Districts firm up partisan images

32. Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Schools and Taxes Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase?

33. Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses? CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007

34. Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

35. Since the Elections: BRAC CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact?

36. Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007

37. Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007