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June 2010

World Bank Europe and Central Asia Region Climate Change Issues and Program Highlights for South East Europe. June 2010. Session Topics. Regional context and Key Issues Overview of the World Bank approach Adaptation pilot program examples. It has been getting hotter. Zagreb, Croatia.

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June 2010

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  1. World BankEurope and Central Asia Region Climate Change Issues and Program Highlights for South East Europe June 2010

  2. Session Topics • Regional context and Key Issues • Overview of the World Bank approach • Adaptation pilot program examples

  3. It has been getting hotter Zagreb, Croatia 25-year averages; data courtesy of Croatia HydroMet Service

  4. Runoff has been decreasing Sava River at Zagreb 25-year averages; data courtesy of Croatia HydroMet Service

  5. Less moisture available to crops Potential ET at Zagreb 25-year averages; data courtesy of Croatia HydroMet Service

  6. Temperature projected to increase by mid-century Change in mean annual temp projected to 2030-2049 from 1961-1980 Suite of GCMs Source: World Bank

  7. Precipitation likely to decrease by mid-century Change in mean annual precipitation projected to 2030-2049 from 1961-1980 Suite of GCMs Source: World Bank

  8. Water available to rivers projected to decrease by mid-century Mean annual runoff projected to 2030-2049 from 1961-1980 Source: Milly et al. (2005, 008)

  9. Storm intensity likely to increase by mid-century Change in maximum 5-day precipitation projected to 2030-2049 from 1961-1980 Suite of GCMs Source: World Bank

  10. Vulnerability Varies across SE Europe Institutional capacity increases “Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia”, World Bank, 2009

  11. Issues for South East Europe and beyond • improving water resource management • tackling environmental pollution problems • upgrading neglected infrastructure and housing • strengthening disaster management and HydroMet systems • ….. But also need for strategies to reduce vulnerability to future changes • focus on infrastructure but also on capacity building and stronger institutions to support adaptation. • Key question - How to ensure the resilience of existing and planned infrastructure to current and projected climate change, and inherent modeling uncertainties?

  12. World Bank Approach • New Strategy for Europe and Central Asia emphasizes climate action to achieve more sustainable growth as a key priority • Budget Support (DPL) to support Turkey’s action to support Energy Efficiency issues as well meeting the EU acquis targets • Poland, we are advising with a Country Economic Memorandum for Greener Growth • Series of Pilot Projects underway • Preparing a Climate Business Plan for 2010

  13. Pilot Program Objectives “Assist client countries understand the range and likely impacts from climate variability and change on vulnerable sub-sectors in sensitive sub-regions, and to develop candidate adaptation approaches to mitigate impacts in a cost-effective manner……Engagement in this program will strengthen staff competencies for designing investments that are more climate resilient.” Source: Final Concept Note (2/27/08)

  14. Current Program Components

  15. Current Program Components

  16. Example 1 – Albania Agriculture/Rural Livelihoods Pilot • Agriculture is a highly climate sensitive sector • In 2007, agriculture accounted for 21% of GDP and over 50% employment - economically significant • Changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events - impact production, food security and livelihoods • Significant variation in vulnerability & adaptive capacity across the country • Business as usual will result in missed opportunities and negative impacts for agriculture

  17. Albania Agriculture/Rural Livelihoods Pilot

  18. Example 2 – Albania Energy Risk ReviewOptions to increase resilience of Albania’s energy sector • Information actions • Hydro-met monitoring, modeling and forecasting • Weather and climate forecasts for energy planning • Interaction hydro-met and energy experts • Cross-sector climate risk assessments • Regional data sharing and studies • Investment actions • ‘Engineering’ adaptation for existing assets: e.g. operation of HPs, optimization during upgrade/ rehabilitation of assets • Construction of new and diversified power assets • Monitoring and forecasting • Diversification

  19. ECA Progress on World BankStrategic Framework

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