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MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras?

MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras?. Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University. Recent Economic and Political Events. Economic recovery in the U.S. Government gridlock Political scandals (AMLO and PRI) Mexico – U.S. relationship. Vital Signs. Is the link alive?.

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MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras?

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  1. MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras? Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University

  2. Recent Economic and Political Events • Economic recovery in the U.S. • Government gridlock • Political scandals (AMLO and PRI) • Mexico – U.S. relationship

  3. Vital Signs • Is the link alive?

  4. Industrial Production Index(January 2000 = 100) Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov

  5. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth

  6. Real GDP% yearly change Source: INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx

  7. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct foreign investment

  8. Foreign Direct InvestmentBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  9. Debt Market Foreign InvestmentBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  10. Stock Market Foreign InvestmentBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  11. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct foreign investment • Super Peso and foreign sector

  12. Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  13. Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  14. Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate 317 Inflation 219 Exchange Rate Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  15. Merchandise TradeBillions of Dollars Imports Exports Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  16. Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  17. Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  18. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct foreign investment • Super Peso and foreign sector • Federal government balance

  19. Government BalanceBalance / GDP Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx

  20. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct foreign investment • Super Peso and foreign sector • Federal government balance • War on inflation

  21. Inflation Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  22. Vital Signs Diagnosis: Stability • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct Foreign Investment • Super Peso and Foreign Sector • Federal Government Balance • War on Inflation

  23. Political Environment • Presidential elections Felipe Calderón Roberto Madrazo Andrés López Obrador

  24. Political Environment • Presidential elections • Structural reform paralysis

  25. A Game of Chutes and Ladders? • Incredible transformation with stability • Fox’s legacy: Separation of powers • Much work to be done • Grave danger: Rule of law

  26. A Game of Chutes and Ladders?

  27. MEXICO ¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras? www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1 jorge.gonzalez@trinity.edu

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