15.835: Entrepreneurial Marketing. Session 7: Demand Forecasting II. Simple Hierarchy-of-effect Model (cont’d). This simple structure decomposes the big problem of demand forecasting into three smaller problems. The long-run business success depends on the size of repeat purchase customers.
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Demand Forecasting II
Prob(Being Regular Users) = Prob(Aware) x
Estimated Market Size = N x n xProb(Being Regular Users)
1. BASES II
“… we have established a validation database of over 200 cases. Based on our validation in the 1980’s, 90% of our forecasts (sales volume, as well as trial and repeat rates) were within 20% of actual volume, and over half were within 10%.
Awareness = ln(ad expenditure)+error