The Future of CDM. Promote energy saving and renewable energy in developing countries. CDM has Not exploited CO2 Reduction Potential by Energy Conservation . Huge CO2 reduction potential by energy conservation Small projected-CER by CDM
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Promote energy saving and renewable energy in developing countries.
ＣＯ2 Emission Increases in Developing Countries（Compared with 2000）
Giga ton －ＣＯ2
Japan’s industry improved energy efficiency by 40% from 1973 to 1993.
Source: White Paper on Energy 2003
More than 26% of energy consumption would be conserved if China could adapt energy efficiency technology on a par with international standards.
Source: “Potential of Energy Efficiency in China”, Jul 2003(The Institute of Energy Economics)
*1 Source:IEAEnergy Outlook 2004
*2 CER supplies including HFC、Ｎ２Ｏ、CH4, CO2（Source: “ The Carbon Market Analyst4” March 2004（Point Carbon））
Current Status of CDM Projects Conservation
CER of CDM projects under the validation by type
Biomass utilization (14)
wind power (24)
Methane recovery (20)
Almost emission reductions are coming from non-CO2 reduction
Non-CO2 reduction (2)
Source:Pacific Consultants Co., Ltd.
CER Supply Forecast Conservation
CER supplies towards 2012 (million CERs p.a.)
Potential large-scale projects
Source: “The Carbon Market Analyst4 March 2004（Point Carbon）
Source: ”The Carbon Market Analyst 4” March 2004（Point Carbon）
Characteristics of CDM Projects by Type Conservation
Change of IRR on CO2 Project
Summary characteristics of CDM projects by type
Source: PDDs submitted to CDM EB
Source: ”Taking Stock of Progress under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)”, OECD report
Issues of CDM Conservation
- Revenue of CER is much less than that of selling electricity and/or cost reduction.
- Perverse incentive (Energy saving policies make it difficult to prove additionality)
The Future of CDM ConservationPossible Actions in the Future
Japan will make a contribution to theFuture of CDM