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Hybrid modelling of plantation crops. Euan Mason University of Canterbury. Outline. Hybrid models Current hybrid modelling projects at the School of Forestry Stand level hybrid growth and yield Hybrid initial growth models. Potential for hybrid models. Geographic Information Systems

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Hybrid modelling of plantation crops

Hybrid modelling of plantation crops

Euan Mason

University of Canterbury


Outline
Outline

  • Hybrid models

  • Current hybrid modelling projects at the School of Forestry

  • Stand level hybrid growth and yield

  • Hybrid initial growth models


Potential for hybrid models
Potential for hybrid models

  • Geographic Information Systems

    • More known about each site and stand

  • Variation in growth pattern from site to site

    • Less need for regional models

  • Variation in weather from year to year

    • Predicting the past

  • Variation in monthly climate offers monthly predictions

  • Climate change may affect growth patterns

  • Kyoto protocol

    • Carbon storage explicit in some models


An example hybrid model
An example “hybrid” model

3-PG Model (Landsberg & Waring 1997)

Allocation varies with fertility


Application of 3 pg 25 year old experiment
Application of 3-PG 25-year old experiment


Potential issues with 3 pg
Potential issues with 3-PG

  • Allocation of C is derived from allometry

  • Recursiveness, compounded errors

  • Over parametarisation

  • Fertility is inadequately represented

  • Stand and stem geometry are not modelled

  • Circularity

    • DBH->Carbon, Carbon->DBH

    • Measurement of LAI may partially solve this


Current hm projects at sof
Current HM projects at SoF

  • Physiological hybrid Initial Growth Model

  • Comparisons between hybrid and traditional G & Y models

  • Modelling effects of nutrition

  • Modelling effects of spacing and genotype on corewood properties

  • National hybrid model for P. radiata

  • Modelling clonal stands



Comparisons of hybrid models
Comparisons of hybrid models

  • Guy Pinjuv, PhD candidate

  • Canterbury estate, highly variable sites

  • Comparison of a range of hybrids

    • Traditional growth and yield

    • 3-PG

    • Several alternatives in between

  • Evaluate fit and utility

    • Two types of validation required


Modelling effects of nutrition
Modelling effects of nutrition

  • Horacio Bown, PhD candidate

  • Development of fertility modifier for hybrid models

    • Long-term goal

  • Controlled environment

  • Field experiments



Modelling clonal stands
Modelling clonal stands Lasserre

  • Rajesh Sharma

  • What changes are needed when modelling for clonal forest management?

  • Potential for hybrid modelling to provide genotype-specific models

  • Large plot clonal experiment - SPBL

    • 10 clones, pure and mixed clone blocks

    • Planted 1993

    • Variation in growth, form, wood quality

    • Interchange in dominance

    • Competition with self or other genotypes

    • Local genotype-dependent individual tree model

    • Risk


National hybrid model for radiata pine
National hybrid model for Lasserreradiata pine

  • Postdoctoral Fellow

    • Dr Helge Dzierzon

  • Can hybrid modelling remove need for regions?

  • Are hybrids more effective that traditional methods within regions?

  • How much local sensitivity do we lose by adopting a national hybrid model?

  • PSP data from 13 companies

  • Monthly weather data from climate stations, with local offsets

  • Elevation and soils from GIS


Weather stations used
Weather stations used Lasserre

  • Reasonable data coverage from 1960 to 2005

  • Stations over all New Zealand

  • Data availability for each station is heterogeneous


Landcare research soil layer
Landcare Research Soil Layer Lasserre

  • Aim: Investigate growth patterns over New Zealand

  • Format:

    • ESRI polygon layer

  • 8 Soil Classes (NZSCORD)

  • 67 Subclasses (NZSC) covered by PSPs


Results for mth using lcr layer the ultimate regional approach
Results for MTH using LCR Layer – the ultimate regional approach

  • Regression for SC:

    • MSE=2.03

    • N: 3202

    • N classes: 26

  • Residuals for SC

    • From 20955 to 13182


Results for g using lcr layer
Results for G using LCR Layer approach

  • Regression of SC:

    • MSE=9.70

    • N: 3202

    • N classes: 26

      Residuals for SC

    • From 360825 to 302916

  • Residuals of Simulation run

    • Mean: 356021

    • Std: 9154


An idea among many
An idea among many approach

  • Time = accumulated light

  • Use 3-PG type quantum efficiency modifiers to accumulate potentiallyused light

  • Use sigmoidal difference equations as usual, fitted to PSP data

  • Avoids some of 3-PG’s problems

    • Compounded errors

    • Allocation of C

    • Overparametarisation

    • Lack of stand geometry


An idea among many1
An idea among many approach

  • Estimate genetic components of seasonal variations in primary and secondary growth

  • Different radiation sums for primary and secondary growth


Seasonal growth in dbh red height yellow and 3 pg predictions blue tennent 1986
Seasonal growth in dbh (red), height (yellow) and 3-PG predictions (blue). (Tennent 1986)


An idea among many2
An idea among many predictions (blue). (Tennent 1986)

  • Climatic variables as well as stocking and radiation sum estimates in mortality model

  • To what extent can temporal variation in climatic influences inform us about influences on crop growth and mortality of spatial variation in climate?


An idea among many3
An idea among many predictions (blue). (Tennent 1986)

  • Compatible stand, distribution & individual tree projection systems

  • Models that represent height vs basal area growth as functions of site variables

  • Models that respond to climatic and local weather variation

  • Models specific to each site

  • Models that naturally provide growth estimates within years


Preliminary example p radiata in central north island
Preliminary Example – predictions (blue). (Tennent 1986) P. radiata in Central North Island

Von-Bertalanffy-Richards

Daytime temp, VPD modifiers

Schumacher, daytime

temperature modifier


Mth results using light sum models dzierzon
MTH: Results using light sum models - Dzierzon predictions (blue). (Tennent 1986)

  • Regression example

    • MSE: 1.40

    • N: 2146

  • Residuals:

    • From 4427.0 to 4118


G results using light sum models dzierzon
G: Results using light sum models - Dzierzon predictions (blue). (Tennent 1986)

  • Regression Example

    • MSE: 5.05

    • N: 2146

  • Residuals:

    • From 57796 to 54822



Future directions
Future directions R1835/2

  • Two fertile strands for forest modelling research

    • Internal qualities of stems

    • Physiological hybrids

  • The University of Canterbury contributes to both

  • Challenge is to bring the two strands together


Future directions1
Future directions R1835/2

  • Hybrids may obviate a regional approach to growth and yield

  • Hybrids may provide an alternative or be complementary to 300 (500) index/Site index approach

  • Climatic and silvicultural effects may be more easily integrated in hybrid models than in traditional G & Y models

    • Site conditions mediate use of light


Summary
Summary R1835/2

  • Several key studies in hybrid modelling

  • Hybrid modelling

    • More sensitive to local site conditions

    • Seasonal (monthly) predictions

    • Reduced need for regions?

    • Better estimates of growth since last inventory?

    • Carbon sequestration explicit?

    • Linkages between mensuration, silviculture and physiology