Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up again?
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Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up again? Presentation by Luigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for Europe World Tourism Organization (WTO). 2 nd International Conference on Tourism in Bulgaria Sofia, Bulgaria – 9-11 January 2003. 1. Factors that affected tourism in 2001 and 2002 :.

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Year 2003 : Will tourism pick up again?

Presentation by

Luigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for Europe

World Tourism Organization (WTO)

2nd International Conference on Tourism in Bulgaria

Sofia, Bulgaria – 9-11 January 2003

1


Factors that affected tourism

in 2001 and 2002:

  • Economic slow-down and uncertainties

    • stocks sliding

    • decrease in consumer confidence

    • slight increase in unemployment

  • 11th September terrorist attacks and ensuing military action

  • Floods in Central Europe

  • Premeditated terrorist attacks against tourists (Bali, Kenya)

  • The Middle East conflict

  • The Iraq crisis




Tourism strongly dependent on economy
Tourism strongly dependent on economy

echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland /

Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-Lebanon

Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia

Asian Financial Crisis


Imf forecasts 2002 2003
IMF Forecasts 2002-2003

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Economic Outlook, September 2002


Recommendations for the recovery of the tourism industry

Institutional measures: government coordination

Rebuild consumer confidence

Enhance safety and security

Improve communication

Better targeted products

Vigorous marketing (including cooperative action)

Public-private partnerships

Understanding the economic impact of tourism

(by markets, segments, sectors, etc.)

7


General trends in demand

Shorter stays and fragmentation of holidays

Sensitivity to price / discounts at airlines

Wait-and-see attitude

Last-minute bookings cash-flow problems for

tourism businesses

Greater demand for customized holidays

Holidays as experience: the aim is to have a moreparticipative experience at the destination

General trends in demand

8


Traveller behaviour models

Trips within the country, to bordering countries or to countries within the same region, especially those sharing the same culture

Increase in group travel among people with common characteristics or interests (church groups, social organizations) due to the added security this arrangement provides

Trend towards high-motivation trips and visits

to friends and relatives

Increase in Domestic and

Intra-regional Tourism

9


Medium-term trends

Reorganization and liberalization of the air transport market , the rise of low-cost airlines

Increased competition

More mature and experienced travellers

Aging western population

Shift of market power from producers to consumers (from a seller’s to a buyer’s market)

Regulation and restriction of access to congested sites

Importance of sustainable tourism development

Increased use of new technologies

10




Promising tourism segments for central eastern europe

Cultural tourism in all regions

City breaks

Business and conference travel (MICE)

Rural tourism/Ecotourism

Sport (winter sport tourism)

Health tourism

Promising tourism segments for Central/Eastern Europe


Joining the European Union in all regionsBenefits: joining most economically and socially developed nations free movement of capitals, goods, services and people joining the euro zone Factors to take into account: increased competition the need to harmonize legal frameworks in tourism (The EU

package tour directive, the Bill of air passenger rights, etc.)

Prospects for Central and Eastern

European Destinations


Central/Eastern Europe in all regions

International Tourist Arrivals and Receipts

Arrivals

(million)

Receipts

(euro billion)

Central and Eastern Europe recorded 76,3 million international tourist arrivals in 2001, 200 thousand or 0,3% less than in 2000; receipts outpaced tourist arrivals, totally almost 30 billion euros in 2001.


Tourism Strengths of Central and Eastern European Destinations

Rich and varied heritage (natural and man-made

tourism resources)

Living folk traditions and hospitality

Relatively developed tourism infrastructure

Potential for varied and high quality tourism offer

Proximity to major European markets

Positive image

Institutional support and public awareness


Thank you for your attention Destinations

World Tourism Organization

Regional Representation for Europe

www.world-tourism.org

17


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