Michael stahl head of economic department
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 20

Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 53 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

The current economic Situation of the German metal and electrical industry. Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department. GESAMTMETALL the employers’ association of the German metal and electrical industry. Branches of the M+E Industry. Automotive industry Mechanical engineering

Download Presentation

Michael Stahl Head of Economic Department

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Michael stahl head of economic department

The current economic Situation of the German

metal and electrical industry

Michael Stahl

Head of Economic Department

GESAMTMETALL

the employers’ association of the German

metal and electrical industry


Michael stahl head of economic department

Branches of the M+E Industry

  • Automotive industry

  • Mechanical engineering

  • Electrical engineering

  • Fabricated metal goods industry

  • Foundries

  • Communication equipment

  • Medical, precision and optical instruments

  • Steel working, steel rolling

  • Non-ferrous metalworking industries

  • Steel and light metal construction

  • Shipbuilding and marine engineering

  • Drawing and cold rolling mills

  • Aerospace equipment, manufacturing and repair


Incoming orders by origin

Incoming orders (by origin)

Upwards again

quarterly figures,seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price

Index value 2005 = 100,

July 2009 compared to July 2008

Abroad: -27,8 % Domestic: -13,9 % Total: -21,5 %

July

Domestic

Total

Abroad

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Federal Statistical Office.


Incoming orders by branches

Incoming orders by branches

Bottom of the crisis

Index value 2005 = 100,

quarterly figures, seasonally adjusted and adjusted for price

Mechanical Engineering

July 2009 compared to July 2008

Fabricated Metal Goods:- 28,5% Electrical Engineering:- 16,6% Mechanical Engineering:- 40,7% Automotive Industry:- 8,1%

Fabricated Metal Goods

Automotive Industry

July/June 2009 compared to April/May 2009 seasonally adjusted

June/July

Fabricated Metal Goods:+2,4% Electrical Engineering:+5,2% Mechanical Engineering:+9,2% Automotive Industry:+11,3%

Electrical Engineering

1.Q.

April/May

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Federal Statistical Office.


Production

Production

Still on the bottom

Quarterly figures, seasonally adjustedIndex value 2005 = 100

July 2009 compared to July 2008 -25.7 percent

July

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Federal Statistical Office.


Production by branches

Production by branches

Fall stopped

Quarterly figures, seasonally adjustedIndex value 2005 = 100

Electrical Engineering

July 2009 compared to July 2008

Fabricated Metal Goods:-33,5% Electrical Engineering:-24,8% Mechanical Engineering:-31,5% Automotive Industry:-21,5%

Fabricated Metal Goods

AutomotiveIndustry

June/July

April/May

Mechanical Engineering

1.Vj.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Federal Statistical Office.


Capacity utilisation

Capacity Utilisation

As low as never before

Average degree of capacity utilisation in percent of their full use of capacity

Normal use of capacity

Jan. 76,2

July 69,3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: ifo Business Survey.


Employment

Employment

Reduction

Seasonally adjustedMeasured in thousands of employees

Increase in Employment from April 2006 to September 2008:+242.000

Reduction since October 2008:-154.000

July

3.474

July 2009 compared to July 2008 -4.4 percent

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Gesamtmetall Calculations; *2009 prelimenary figures.


Labour market of m e occupations

Labour Market of M+E Occupations

The gap opened again

Seasonally adjustedMeasured in thousands of people

Unemployed People

August

vacant positions* (reported and not reported)

2006

2007

2008

2009

2005

*) according to FAL researches every second vacant position isn‘t reported to FEA

Sources: Federal Employment Agency (FEA), Gesamtmetall calculations.


Job security

Job security

Companies stick to permanent staff

Index value 2. Quarter 2008 = 100

seasonally adjusted

Employees

Production

Expected employment at a normal level of productivity

Incoming Orders

2. Q. July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Gesamtmetall Calculations.


Short time work in the m e industry

Short-time work in the M+E Industry

Short-time work is exploding – Wave of announcements ebbs away

Number of people covered by announcements

974.500

896.400

thousand

967.200

Number of Short-time worker

726.200

648.700

480.224

363.873

288.200

225.263

121.200

142.799

71.200

82.045

73.539

40.721

2008

2009

Sources: Federal Statistical Office


What does the employer have to pay

Employer

Employee

What does the employer have to pay?

Full time work

100 % Short-time work

100 % Short-time work

+

further training

only up to 7th month

0 €

0 €

net

pay

SC

net

pay

SC

net

pay

SC

SC = Contributions to Social Security Insurance


Example 50 short time work

Example: 50 % Short-time work

Short-time work with 50 % reduction of working time

ES*

cancellednet pay

67 %

STWA

Employeespay

netpay

netpay

Federal Employment Agency

Employer

Employer subsidy by CA(*not in all regions)

STWA = Short-time working allowance


Job security1

Job security

Declining productivity – rising costs

Unit labour cost

Production per hour

Annual percentage change

2008

2009

2007

Source: Federal Statistical Office.


Business situation

Business Situation

Bottom of the crisis

Balance values, seasonally adjusted

May

Assessment of the present state of business

The balance values of the current business situation are the differences of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”

Sep.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: ifo Business Survey.


Business expectations

Business Expectations

Positive again

Balance values, seasonally adjusted

Sep.

Business outlook for the coming half-year

The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: ifo Business Survey.


Business expectations1

Business Expectations

Obviously less Sceptical

Balance values

Expected Development of Exportsfor the next 3 Months

The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “expected to rise” and “expected to decline”

Expected Development of Productionfor the next 3 Months

Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun.

2009

2008

Source: ifo Business Survey


Business expectations2

Business Expectations

Further Layoffs in Sight

Balance values

Expected Development of Employmentfor the next 3 Months

The balance values of the expectations are the differences of the percentages of the responses “expected to rise” and “expected to decline”

Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. Jan. Feb. Mrz. Apr. Mai Jun.

2009

2008

Source: ifo Business Survey


Consumer prices

Consumer Prices

Close to Stability

quarterly figures

annual percentage change

forecasts

July -0,5 Aug. 0,0

2009

2008

2010

Sources: Federal Statistical Office, Consensus Forecasts, September 2009


Forecasts 2010

Forecasts 2010

Out of the Crises?

annual percentage changes

source: IW Köln, 21.9.2009


  • Login